Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
This weekend, some of the most significant races are at Epsom Racecourse, including the Epsom Derby, part of the British Championship Series. That’s where you’ll find Tom and Rich.
Bonus from Tom for Sunday:
QATAR PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB
Group 1, 3-year-old colts and fillies, 2,100m/1 mile 2 ½ furlongs, €1,500,000
Saturday, June 3
Race 1 – Betfred Diomed Stakes
Race 2 – Betfred Derby (British Champions Series)
Race 3 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Race 4 – Aston Martin 3yo “Dash” Handicap
Race 5 – Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap
Epsom Tips and Comments
Epsom – Saturday, June 3
Race 1 – 12:50
Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f
2 – Highland Avenue – Draw 5
First race of the season was a reasonable effort against his stablemate Adayar. He ran 3rd of 5 and just lost second.
He raced twice last year and did nothing in 2 group races in Dubai.
Ran very well overall in 2021.
He’s won at this distance with three tries.
Off the last race, he should move forward and beat this bunch.
5 – Regal Reality – Draw 6
He raced in the same race as my top choice and ran fourth.
The race comment was he looked rusty.
He’s been good in group-type races and faced some of the best runners.
Ryan Moore has the mount.
If he runs well here, he will be running a Royal Ascot.
6 – Kolsai – Draw 2
The least experienced horse in this race and is moving up in class.
He tried a listed company at Newmarket in April and got caught.
I think he could be a useful horse in handicaps, so he will do well enough here.
He appears to be the front runner here, and with a sensible pace, he will hang around at the end.
Race 2 – 1:30
Betfred Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f
2 – Arrest – Draw 13
He was a very honest running horse with on five races but in the money in his races with 3 wins.
The first out this season was a win at Chester in group 3 races by a suitable 6 ½ lengths.
Last race in 2022 was at St Cloud in the group 1 Criterium, ran second losing by a head to Dubai Mile.
This is Frankie Dettori last ride in the Derby, and I think John Gosden has him ready for a big effort off just one start this season.
The post position is a concern.
14 – White Birch – Draw 2
2 starts this season with a win and a second. The first race was on the heavy going and the other was run on good to firm going.
They started this horse in November last year with a learning experience in his first race.
Won his next start and Dundalk on the all-weather.
Sent off at 22-1, he won the first start by ½ length.
Colin Keane is in for the ride.
The comment was interesting, he probably not win the Derby but there is more to come from this horse, I agree.
8 – Military Order – Draw 9
His prep for the Derby was at Lingfield on the all-weather, going 12 furlongs and sending off the favorite, he won.
Won his first start on the slow going at Newmarket by 4 lengths, and it was an easy win.
His two races last season with a win and a 4th in the maiden race. They moved this horse up to a class 2 race for the maiden win.
He is the brother to the Derby winner in 2021 – Adayar.
Race 3 – 2:10
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f
2 – Astral Beau – Draw 2
Two races this season and two good runs running first in a listed race and a third in a group 2 at Newmarket.
Both times, she went off at a good price 9-1 and 17-2.
She’s really jump up in class from the class 4 races she was running in before.
It appears she matured as a 4yo and now a black-type horse.
4 – Prosperous Voyage – Draw 5
One start, at a good run in a group 2 at Newmarket running 5th. Ok for a first start and ran in the same race as my top choice.
Last race was on a soft surface but her best running has been on good to firm going. That what she will get today.
She’s a top class filly who beat Inspiral last season in a group 1 race at Newmarket.
She’s the one to beat.
3 – Potapova – Draw 4
I don’t know what to make of this horse because she was vanned off in her last race and it was found she had and irregular heartbeat.
This 5yo, like other, has running again good company in group races.
I going to put her third but really think she many not run or has run her races and ready to be a broodmare.
Race 4 – 2:45
Aston Martin 3yo “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f
12 – Dickleburd – Draw 6
I am going with the longest shot on the board and here’s why.
Like many in this field, he has one win.
After that win, they ran him in a group 3 race to run last against top sprinter Trillum.
Layoff and gelded and 2 starts on the all-weather showing nothing.
First start of the career was ok and needed the start.
So, 3 starts on the turf with 1 win, one in a group race, and the first start.
Why not take a chance on a horse that may prefer turf racing.
14 – Zuffolo – Draw 10
Won last start in class 5 after a really poor effort in the first start 21 days before.
This was his first win after 8 tries.
Moves up in class of the win and should get a nice price here.
Race 5 – 3:20
Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 5f
1 – Silky Wilkie – Draw 7
He’s not had a break and has been running on both turf and all weather some success.
Last out at Newmarket in group 3 race running 5th, he finished second in the group of 6 that he was running with. But this was the wrong side of the track that day.
He won at the class 2 level before and has a record 4 starts 1 win 2 placings at the class 2 level.
9 – Ancient Times – Draw 16
The first race of the season was a 4th at Newmarket in a class 3 handicap.
He appears to want the good ground for the best results.
He won at first asking last year at the class 4 level handicap.
He moved up and won at the class 2 level.
Record at 5 furlongs 10 starts 3 wins 2 placings and is 1 for 1 at Epsom.
Maybe get 6-1 odds in this group.
11 – Navelto – Draw 5
Won at Thirsk and then came back 9 days later to run 3rd in a field of 4 at Windsor.
In form horse who has won and placed at this level.
Get weight off with class rising and this going and preformed well.
Chantilly – Sunday, June 4
QATAR PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB – The French Derby
Group 1, 3-year-old colts and fillies, 2,100m/1 mile 2 ½ furlongs, €1,500,000
5 – Feed The Flame – Draw 6
Undefeated with only 2 starts. Both races at ParisLongchamp going 10.5F and 11F on good to soft and very soft going.
This looks like a very good horse, and Christophe Soumillon got off American Flag to ride this horse.
Both his starts were in April, so this is a good one? Will see.
11 – Big Rock – Draw 2
He has won his last 4 races including wins at Chantilly in listed and group 3 races.
His wins are on both turf and all-weather.
He also has won with length to spare of at least 2 ½ lengths.
What was the difference? He changed trainers in February and the new trainer is Christopher Head.
Maybe one of the favorites.
9 – Continuous – Draw 1
Won both races of his 2yo runs at 7F and 8F.
First start at York in group 2 race, ran third to The Foxes who is running in the Derby on Saturday.
He was only 1 ½ lengths back.
Distance should suit and it doesn’t hurt to have Ryan Moore and Aiden O’Brien teaming up to see what he can do vs. this group.
Race 1: Betfred Diomed Stakes – 7:50 am Eastern
4 – MARIE’S DIAMOND – finished 2nd by a neck in his last, big improvement, maybe better in 3rd up
2 – HIGLAND AVENUE – 2nd start after more than a year on the sidelines – definitely been the class
5 – REGAL REALITY – is likely to be better in the second start off the sidelines too
Race 2: Betfred Derby (British Champions Series) – 8:30 am Eastern
12 – THE FOXES – coming off a G2 win, feel like the longer race will serve him well
8 – MILITARY ORDER – winner three in a row, lone race he lost was debut, finished 4th, the 3 that beat him came back to win their next races
11 – SPREWELL – looks like a different horse as a 3 yo vs 2 yo – another where the extra distance should be to his liking in 3rd up
2 – ARREST – came off the bench to smoke the field by 6 ½ lengths – record says he’ll be better in round two off the bench
Race 3: Princess Elizabeth Stakes – 9:10 am Eastern
4 – PROSPEROUS VOYAGE – 1 for 1 at Epsom, expecting more in 2nd up and solid record on a good surface
2 – ASTRAL BEAU – classic third start after a layoff
6 – SHAARA – got to have this one as an all or nothing – 7/4-0-0
Race 4: Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap – 9:45 am Eastern
7 – JM JUNGLE – steadily improving, distance 7/1-2-3 – probably running in the toughest races in this group
13 – ESTATE – also trending upwards – distance 5/1-2-1 – good, good surface record
6 -TATTERSTALL – best races have been at 5f and two of them were seconds by a head and length
11 – ZUFFOLO – won his last – either first or third in four on a good surface
Race 5: Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap – 10:20 am Eastern
9 – ACIENT TIMES – 1 for 1 at Epson – usually improves 2nd up, solid resume on a good track
3 – CLARENDON HOUSE – off to a slow start in first up, usually closer to the front, I am expecting a better start today
17 – LIHOU – hasn’t run a bad race in the last 9
14 – MOKAATIL – you have to have him because Epson 5/3-0-0