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Fair Grounds Picks – January 21, 2023 – Horse Racing Today

Fair Grounds Racing Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers

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Fair Grounds Race Track Horse racing Picks and Comments

Charming Charles’ Choices

Bets

1.  1,4,8,5
2.  4,3,6,1
3.  1,8,7,9
4.  9,8,10,4
5.  3,6,2,1
6.  9,7,4,3
7.  3,5,1,9
8.  2,4,8,11
9.  5,1,3,6
10.  8,6,5,7
11.  10,11,5,2
12.  5,4,7,1
13.  8,7,3,2
14.  1,8,7,4

Suggested Wagers

1. $20Win 1
5. $.50 pick5:
1,2,5,9/4,7,9/1,3,5/2/5
7. $.50pick 4:
1,3,5,9/2/5/5,6,7,8
10.$.50 pick 5:
5,6,7,8/2,5,10,11/4,5/7,8/1
14. $20 win 1

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Pace – 45% w2w – Rail Bias – 2+ About the Same

1 – OLIVIA G – TLRSP#, maintenance work between races, +8 EP/LP edge

7 – NEW DESTINY – should be close to the pace – same times at 6f v 5f

4 – MUCHMORETHANREADY – should be closing, better in race numbers last out, upgrades in 2nd off the bench?

8 – TWO JET – 1st time starter, works are OK – tr Jerry Delhomme doesn’t run many, but his numbers are good

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,7/1,4,7/1,4,7,8,9

 

Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Pace – 45% w2w – Rail Bias – 2+ About the Same

4 – EVERGRANDE – bullet and go

3 – SOUPER EXPLOSIVE – top experienced horse, Z pattern and slightly better number last out – Chris P

6 – GOLDEN VIEW – another 1st timer with decent and consistent works

9 – ICHIBAN – tough call over the 2, we’ll take the better odds

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4/3,4,6/2,3,4,6,9

 

Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par

8 – MO HOPE – outside post hurts, will be closer to the pace here than in debut

1 – GAMETIME GLADIATOR – should move closer to the font here too, decently bet in debut

3 – MIDNIGHT PRANKS – tough call over the 9, but the inside draw is the difference maker

9 – SENSE YOU ASKED – better fractions last out, improved in sharply in R2, Chris P angle

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,8/1,3,8/1,3,7,8,9

 

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Pace – 45% w2w – Rail Bias – 2+ About the Same

9 – SUPER LUXE – a bunch of 5f works, going to be fit, Candy Ride – speed – $725k

2 – MERLAZZA – Nice Christmas Eve work, Cox/Geroux again

4 – L J’S EMMA – December 29th work is sharp as is Jan 5, maintenance work since – this horse is ready

1 – RUN CHATA – on the rail – 3 bullets and go, concerned maybe going too hard in practice?

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,9/2,4,9/1,2,4,6,9

 

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 7 Race – 6/7 won by closers – Rail Fair, 2/3 big Penalty, 4-7 Bonus

2 – CHARLIE’S PENNY – lone turf race was good enough, probably heavy favorite if it goes to dirt

3  – LAKE LUCERNE – real consistent performer with the potential for a spike

1 – FANCY MARTINI – Lone P – all or nothing type, been seeing tougher competition

5 – MY PHILLY TWIRL – benefits from the 7 scratching and could be close to the front with reasonable fractions

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3,5,6

 

Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par

4 – SPARTAN QUEEN – TLRSP# on a wet track – nice work since – good friend DeShawn Parker

9 – GRAPES FOR ELOISE – improves in second run, maybe notches up in 2nd off the break, would have like a work between races

5 – COMPARATIVE – tossed the rider as the fav in last, tr Brad Cox rebounds at 31%

1 – LURE’EM IN – hasn’t run since September, has +7 EP edge,  and some sharp FG works getting prepped

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,9/4,5,9/1,4,5,7,9

 

Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Pace – 45% w2w – Rail Bias – 2+ About the Same

3 – FIRST DEFENDER – best works of the 1st timers

5 – CITY NIGHTS – couple of bullets in late December, then maintenance since

2 – QUATERNION – tr Joseph Felks doesn’t run many – wins at 37% when he does

1 – PINFIRE – TLRSP# for the experienced horses, major uptick in 2nd career race

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,5/2,3,5/1,2,3,5,7

 

Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 7 Race – 6/7 won by closers – Rail Fair, 2/3 big Penalty, 4-7 Bonus

9 – GENTLE SOUL – 3rd after a layoff – could equal peak performance, tr Bret Calhoun on fire at FG 32%

3 – TWO EMMYS – runs well fresh, a pair of 2nds and a 3rd by a neck in the last 3

2 – PRICE TALK – distance 7/3-1-2, likely better in 2nd off the bench,  no more than 1 length from winning in the last 6

6 – SAILING SOLO – almost an all or nothing horse on turf, 13/6-1-1

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,9/2,3,9/2,3,6,8,9

 

Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par

4 – TAPIT SHOES – improved a ton in his 2nd career races, maintenance works since

5 – DETERMINEDLY – drops in from a NGSTK 100k, has some EP and getting 1st Lasix

1 – SILVER HEIST – won debut with a nice middle move, three works including a bullet between races

3 – TAPIT’S CONQUEST – probably the pacesetter now with the 2 scratched

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5/1,4,5/1,3,4,5,6

 

Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par

8 – MOBSTER – up the ladder in each of his races, TLRSP#, a pair of maintenance works between races

2 – ONASA – should be part of the EP, on the rail, bullet work on Jan 14 – just need to hang on

1 – FIGHT’N READY – slightly better times in career start #2, and has 17f works since

5 – BRIARTOWN – decently bet in debut – consistent in race #s – good to see in debut

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,8/1,2,8/1,2,5,6,8

 

Race 11: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 1 Race – Early Speed from 4-7

10 – SURVEILLANCE – real consistent performer with occasional spike higher TLRSP#

11 – BANGO – +6 EP/LP combo edge, to be better in classic 3rd off the break

2 – MANNY WAH – top LP horse in the race – another consistent performer at the top end

6 – SIGN OF WAR – hard, hard call over the 5, but turns into lone E w/ scratches and 5 has been off for a long time

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 10,11/2,10,11/2,5,6,10,11

 

Race 12: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: 50/50 – 21% w2w – Slight Inside 3 bias, 4-7 fair, 8+ Penalty

7 – FOREST CHIMES – won her debut with ease, strong fractions, 2 maintenance works since

5 – CHOP CHOP – clearly class horse, BTN FAV in BC Juvenile Fillies, good works but maybe more of a turf horse?

4 – THE ALYS LOOK – interesting that Geroux gets off here to ride Chop Chop, Cox trains both – telling

1 – NORAH G – is a neck away from winning all three starts

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,7/4,5,7/1,4,5,6,7

 

Race 13 – Bias: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par

2 – RUN CLASSIC – has a +7 EP/LP edge and should be close to the front all the way around the track

8 – ZOZOS – KD horse that finished behind Epicenter her last year in the Louisiana Derby

5 – HAPPY AMERICAN – TLRSP# and good shot to increase it in 3rd off the bench, brilliant LPs

9 – MR. WIRELESS – of all horses running today – this is the one I want to win the most jy DeShawn Parker has been a great guest on HC, everybody loves the guy and talks about his character – if we all pray him – maybe he’ll get his first graded win

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,8/2,5,8/2,5,7,8,9

 

Race 14: Bias: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par

7 – INSTANT COFFEE – the break is everything – if he’s close at the ¼ – then brilliant LP will takeover

8 – TWO PHIL’S – lone EP horse, plenty of speed in here, all or nothing 5/3-0-0

1 – ECHO AGAIN – on the rail with plenty of EP, been well bet in all three races

2 – DENINGTON – has the top EP/LP combo and most LP

Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 7,8/1,2,7/1,2,3,7,8

Fair Grounds Pace Worksheet 1-21-23

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