Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Going back to the land down under for a strong card of races at Flemington Racecourse.
Flemington Racecourse Tips – (Free Flemington Past Performances)
Race 2 – The Vanity
Race 5 – Frances Tressady Stakes
Race 6 – CS Hayes Stakes
Race 7 – Black Caviar Lightning
Race 8 – The Elms Handicap
Flemington Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 2
6 – Wollombl – Draw 3
Win last at Warwick and had to work to win.
Won the race before, too, at the BM72 level.
Moves up in class today.
This horse is a distance specialist – 5 starts 2 wins 1 second 2 thirds.
She may be moving up in class, but she fits well in this race off 2 wins.
3 – Papillon Clubs – Draw 8
Win her last start at Flemington at the BM70 level, running just behind the leader and moving with 350m left in the race.
Won trial race at a good time leading up to this race.
With 3 starts 2 wins 1 second, she’s done what they have asked.
Steps up in class but great chance here vs. this group.
1 – See You In Heaven – Draw 9
Ran a good 2nd last out at 1100m in the listed race and moved strongly while being wide, but it was a good trip overall.
Won a Group 2 race at Caulfield going 1600m.
She should be the favorite at 3-1, but this distance may not be long enough. She’s placed before at this distance, and that is what I see her doing.
Race 5
5 – Sirileo Miss – Draw 5
A decent race lasts out being pushed along and a little wide at times ran on for fourth in Group 3.
Drops in the distance for this race and has a record of 9 starts 3 wins 3 seconds.
She has never won or placed at this track in 5 starts, but these have been at longer distances.
A good record of coming off the bench or 1st up, five starts three wins.
I like here at a price.
3 – Excelida – Draw 6
After a break, the first race back was average at best, running 7th but had some issues in the race. Toss.
Her last 5 races have all been in Group company at various distances.
She won at Flemington in October in a Group 2 at this distance over good ground.
She has 5 starts and 2 wins after having a race after a break.
She likes this track – 8 starts 2 wins 1 second 3 thirds.
She also this distance – 14 starts 4 wins 1 second 4 thirds.
She has only an outside chance, but I think this is a good spot for her to improve.
8 – Boogie Dancer – Draw 1
She Ran 4th last out at 1600m in the Group 1 race, she went off the favorite. This was after a 3-week break.
She won a Group 2 race at 1400m at Caulfield over the heavy going with a good finish at the end.
She’s never run on a good track so this should be interesting because she is 2 for 2 at this distance.
I can leave her out but it is a win of nothing horse.
Race 6
4 – Bank Maur – Draw 9
After a break, he ran a great race last out running second in group 3.
He had some issues at the start and just missed a strong move.
He has won second up.
He is a winner over this distance, but it’s suggested he could be a useful miler.
He wants a good going.
2 – Bello Beau – Draw 13
Toss last race, many issues in running the race, and too wide.
This is a concern for this race with the 13-post position.
He appears to be the speed of the race, if he gets a good break and clears he could be hard to pass on the lead.
With a 60% win rate from 10 starts 6 wins & 2 seconds, hard to complain about the results.
8 – Moreamasa – Draw 12
Useful trial as prep for this race. Ran second in ok time and in the trial, he lost to a group winner.
It appears to me that the last 2 races were too long for him even though he ran 2nd at 2000m in a group 3 race at Caulfield.
His maiden win is at this distance.
With a chance here at 30-1.
Race 7
8 – Marbai – Draw 5
The last race was her first loss, and she was a bit keen early in the race but did take the lead and fought on but not enough. This was in March last year.
The vet check found nothing wrong.
She won all 6 of her prior to the last race.
Do you want to talk about maturity making a difference, she is 6 years old with only 7 starts in her career.
She is a proven first-up winner and yes, a long time off, but this is normal for her.
She’s been fit before and a group 1 winner, tough place to get started again but she has been the favorite in most of her races so far, I love to get 9-1.
1 – Nature Strip
Won his trial race coming into this in ok time, he did beat a group winner in that prep.
Last out, he was the favorite in the group 1 race and ran 2nd to Roch ‘N’ Horse in a 1200m race.
The Everest was not his day, running a poor (by this horse’s normal standard) 4th to a 3yo Giga Kick who was flying at the end.
A winner at Royal Ascot at this distance with a record of 18 starts 10 wins 4 seconds 1 third.
He will be the favorite.
6 – Roch ‘N’ Horse
He has beaten Nature Strip and did it last out in group 1.
He has only 2 runs at this distance and won one of them.
In the other race, he ran fourth on heavy 8 going and this horse has never won on heavy going.
Will show his speed at the start, let’s see if he can finish going down the straight.
Race 8
14 – Daytona Bay – Draw 7
Needed the last race after a layoff, ran 4th running off the pace, and just didn’t have the fitness to win.
He is versatile winning all types so going.
6 starts, with 4 wins & 1 third at the lower level, but I think this listed race suits him well coming off the last race.
Jamie Kah has choices in this race, and she has done well with this trainer in the past.
The favorite at 3-1 I will take that price.
2 – Dalasau – Draw 9
He is using a trial as prep for this race running second at a slow time.
Average efforts in his last 3 races but these were all group 1 races.
The last win was in a listed race in August.
He is a group 2 and 3 winner so this is a drop in class for him.
He is 4 of 7 at this distance with in-the-money finishes.
He is priced at 15-1 which seems high to me based on past performance.
13 – Munhamek – Draw 3
Ran second at this distance last out in the BM84 race, he just missed.
He’s an up-and-down type and never ran in a listed race before but…
At this distance, he has 20 starts 5 wins 6 seconds 2 thirds.
I think he can run in the money here.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 2 – The Vanity
#1 See You In Heavan
#3 Papillon Club
#6 Wollombi
#4 Queen Air
Race 5 – Frances Tressady Stakes
#3 – Excelida
#4 Annavisto
#5 Sirileo Miss
#6 Wrote to Arataki
Race 6 – CS Hayes Stakes
#11 Cadetship
#13 Holymanz
#14 Attrition
#4 Bank Maur
Race 7 – Black Caviar Lightning
#1 Nature Strip
#8 Marabi
#2 I Wish I Win
#11 Coolangatta
Race 8 – The Elms Handicap
#4 Uncle Bryn
#14 Daytona Bay
#7 Looks Like Elvis
# Bankers Choice
