Flemington hosts another strong Saturday program featuring deep handicaps, proven class horses, and several races loaded with pace and late-running threats. This race-by-race breakdown combines Tom’s Tips and Rich’s Ranks for Races 5–9, highlighting key form angles, distance changes, class moves, and projected race shape.
🏇 FLEMINGTON PICKS
RACE 5 – SIR HENRY BOLTE HANDICAP – 12:15 am ET
Tom’s Tips
10 – Redders – SCRATCHED – first time blinkers after running second in his last start. He
hasn’t won second-up before, but maybe the equipment change will make
the difference. I will take a chance at a good price.
7 – Purple Streak – one of the speed horses in the race in a field devoid of
many front-runners. He only has three starts with two wins, and went off the
favorite in his race when he ran seventh at Caulfield. There were issues in
that race.
16 – Marsept – she’s only won a maiden race in five starts, but she broke
poorly and won last time out. Maybe with a better start, she runs away from
the field. One of the favorites at 4-1.
Rich’s Ranks
16 – MARSEPT – fastest 6f time by a decent margin
14 – CATWALK ICON – 2nd fastest 6f time and likes the distance 3/2-1-0
5 – JEWEL BANDIT – has a win at this level in a second up at a price – history repeats
11 – SUN DEVIL – unbeaten in two – times fit so what the hell
RACE 6 – LV LACHAL HANDICAP – 12:50 am ET
Tom’s Tips
2 – Oh Too Good – adds distance from last race and ran second. She has
won twice at this distance and at this track. She raced wide without cover.
She should have some pace to run at.
9 – Smokin’ Princess – she hasn’t run since January and ran very average
in her trial, but she has won first up and has a great record at this distance
with nine starts, five wins, two seconds, and one third. Decent price.
1 – Zahrann – he should be one of the shorter-priced horses in the race
and has faced much stronger company in the past. He’s only run six times
with three wins and two seconds, and has only run on good going. The one
to beat.
Rich’s Ranks
3 – OH TOO GOOD – just needs a little improvement from his last
1 – ZAHRAN – definitely been the class – but been off for 8 months
9 – SMOKIN’ PRINCESS – a miler for sure 9/5-2-1 – 4th at Randwick in the other
4 – WONDER BOY – going to be closing and maybe in the best form of all of them
RACE 7 – LEXUS ANDREW RAMSDEN – 1:30 am ET
Tom’s Tips
1 – Changingoftheguard – won at group one last time out at a longer
distance and returns with a trial race as the prep. He’s four wins from
twelve starts on the good going; the question is about the distance. Too
short? Is this the start of something really good from this horse?
13 – American Wolf – comes into this race off a poor run last time out,
finishing seventh in a listed race. He had a wide run, and the start wasn’t
the best. He’s won at this distance and has recently won a Group 2
race. He’s won this distance before.
10 – Zakouma – he won three in a row before his last race, which was an
adventure before he found clear running, but it was too late. Form is good,
and a better trip he should have better results.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – FLYING BANDIT – can close like he’s running downhill – extra distance helps
1 – CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD – won a Group 1 last out
12 – SUFFOLK STAR – won two in row – faster by about 2 seconds
13 – AMERICAN WOLF – has a win at the track and 1 for 1 at the distance G2 winner
RACE 8 – HILTON NICHOLAS TAB STRAIGHT SIX – 2:10 am ET
Tom’s Tips
7 – De Bergerac – after racing in group races and showing little, they
dropped him to a benchmark 88 handicap, and he ran second after
misbehaving before loading into the start gate and began slowly. He was
under strong handling at the end. He returns and, with a better trip, should
win.
6 – Fancify – she comes into the race off of two trials and hasn’t raced
since November. She’s good first up with six starts and three wins, two
seconds. She’s returning at a level where she should return a good result.
4 – Tainting – bombed big time in his first start off a layoff in a Group Three
race. He raced wide and showed little. There’s strong speed in this race, so
that’s a concern, but he has a great record second-up, with five starts and
four wins. Big odds.
Rich’s Ranks
9 – WELL TIMED – run back to his last race time for 6f wins
7 – DE BERGERAC – will be closing – if he can get a little more forward early
12 – STOLI BOLLI – rallies for a piece as the ML FAV
8 – LOSESOMEWINMORE – horse for the course 6/4-0-0 – elsewhere 2 wins in 7
RACE 9 – MURRAY COX HANDICAP – 2:43 am ET
Tom’s Tips
11 – Mr Blunt – starts slowly and comes very fast at the end. There is
plenty of speed in this race. He won last time out and moves up in class
today. He should rate off the pace and catch the speed at the end. The
favorite.
5 – Opening Address – he will be on the lead and is two for two at this
distance. Ran a good second last time out at the benchmark 74 level.
Adding 200m will only help this horse with a proper rating.
7 – Skippers Canyon – he ran third last time out at the benchmark 74 level
going this distance. I don’t know if the good going is ideal for this horse, but
he does have a win and two thirds. As with my top choice, he will be a short
price.
Rich’s Ranks
11 – MR BLUNT – winner 3/5 races – can rate or close – 1/1 at the track and distance
2 – VILLASAURUS – closes like crazy in the final strides – needs to inch up a little more early
8 – OPENING ADDRESS – speed type that usually fades, managed to win both at the distance
7 – SKIPPERS CANYON – closing and could peak in third up
