Foreign Friday returns to Australia as 22-1 Tom and Rich head to Sandown Hillside in Melbourne for five outstanding stakes races on Saturday, November 14!
It’s another edition of Insomnia Racing, featuring the C.F. Orr Stakes, Zipping Classic, Sandown Guineas and two more competitive stakes events.
From emerging three-year-olds to established Group 1 performers, Sandown Hillside offers a fascinating combination of speed, stamina, class and potential wagering value.
Five races. Big-money stakes. Australian turf racing. And plenty of opportunities to find a longshot.
Race 5: Sportsbet Sandown Guineas – 10:35 PM ET
Tom’s Tips
2 – Star of Macedon
Ran third in his most recent start, a listed race at Flemington. He finished fourth and moved up, but the ground that day did not favor late runs. He has run second once at this distance, in one start. He has not won on soft going, but he has run second or third in three starts. He has proven stakes ability. This time for the win?
6 – Strong Tempo
He was slow to start, ran wide in the straight, and was bumped. Notably, he ran the second-fastest final quarter, with only the winner faster. The fourth-place finish was at 1600m. He won his first two races, so the last race was a bit better than it looked. He will continue to improve.
11 – Consulate
Too far back to really get into the race last time. His last two races were at the group level, and he finished fifth and sixth. He will sit back again and get a better run late, giving him a good chance of running in the money.
Rich’s Ranks
4 – Harry Lime – Should be better in the 2nd up and fastest times.
1 – Milsons Point – Could benefit from extra distance.
3 – Hydro Rush – 2/2 on Good – major upgrade here – lone PC horse.
6 – Strong Tempo – 2nd go at the Group level – ran well enough.
Race 6: Evergreen Turf Doveton Stakes – 11:10 PM ET
Tom’s Tips
3 – Don’t Hope Do
He has two fair runs in his last two races. He ran second in a Group 2 race and fourth in a listed race. He was off well, sat about two lengths behind with cover, came under pressure late, took a big hop, and finished well. It was close, but he did not get the breaks. This time, he has a better chance, and the wider post position will help.
9 – Saluted
She moves up in class after some good efforts in her last five races at the benchmark 64 to 88 levels. Why the move up? I think that with her current form and having won or placed in six of seven starts at this track, she has a chance.
1 – Oak Hill
He was slow from the gate in his first start of the season, settled in the back of the field, and never was in the race. He drops in class and runs at the same distance. He has won six of his thirteen starts and has placed second in three of his five starts. He is one-of-one at this track. He will be better in his second start of the season.
Rich’s Ranks
11 – Lake Forest – 5F times are fast enough.
8 – Bred ‘Em All – All the good footing races fit.
9 – Saluted – Most versatile middle forward horse.
3 – Don’t Hope Do – Must be less than even money for some reason.
Race 7: Move To Strike Thoroughbred Club Stakes – 11:45 PM ET
Tom’s Tips
13 – Aroused
With only two starts, she ran well in both races, finishing second in defeat. Her maiden run was a dominant win, and in her last run at Flemington in a listed race, she just missed holding the lead at the end. The horse that beat her is my second choice.
6 – Caddington
Beat my top choice, steadily moving up from seventh to catch her at the end. I think both fillies got a lot out of that race, and it makes them good chances to run first and second again. Better overall field, but they both look very talented. Her speed numbers suggest a massive advantage.
2 – Natural Fling
She settled in second last time with no cover. Overwhelmed by the late pace, she couldn’t match it. She drops from a Group One after good efforts in her other six starts, winning or placing in the money in five of six races. She won a Group Three at Caulfield.
Rich’s Ranks
8 – Sequinned – 2/2 distance – has some of the fastest times – cutting back from 7f helps.
6 – Caddington – Only 4th start – improved a ton in last – similar improvement here wins.
12 – Semantics – Ran well enough in G3 in last – extra ½ furlong helps.
2 – Natural Fling – Drops from a G1 – EP running style – footing?
Race 8: Sportsbet C.F. Orr Stakes – 12:25 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
8 – Shadhavar
He won his last two races. He was in tight at the start, moved to the lead, and was in front for the final 300m to win easily. This is an in-form mare who will be on the pace again, and this is the spot to break through for a Group One win.
1 – Jimmysstar
The one to beat, because he has run eleven times at this distance, winning four, running second three times, and third once. He won a Group One at Caulfield at 1200m, coming from far back. He ran okay in his next two races: the Everest, where he finished sixth, and the last race, a Group Two at Randwick, where he finished seventh of fifteen. He settled back, as always, but this time was too wide to finish. The race was won in track-record time. For me, going back to this distance is the key to winning.
7 – Splash Back
She was off slowly last time but finished fast, though not fast enough to finish better than fifth. The final quarter was the third-fastest in that race. She is a Group One winner in June at this distance, sitting way back of the early pace. This is a bit tougher race, but second up, she has won three of her five starts.
Rich’s Ranks
2 – Pericles – Best times for an in-form horse.
8 – Shadhavar – Best of the horses up front – most want to be middle back.
1 – Jimmysstar – Most class – but needs form reversal here.
3 – Angel Capital – Going to be rolling late – but race tempo might be a little on the slow side.
Race 9: Chandon Zipping Classic – 1:05 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
10 – Small Fry
Trained by Joseph O’Brien, he ran second in his first start in Australia to the Melbourne Cup winner. Before shipping over, he won at York. He will be the favorite in this race, and given that last race, he should be.
5 – Juja Kibo
He ran third in the Melbourne Cup with a good run from midpack before moving to the outside and finishing off well, but was no match for the top two. He drops back to a distance he has done well at, having run six times with two wins, one second, and two thirds. He won his two previous starts prior to the Melbourne Cup, so he is in prime form for another good run.
2 – Kingswood
Won last time in the Caulfield Cup, a Group One, after settling just off the pace but was wide and had no cover. Going wide appeared to be the right move in that race. He has run this distance five times, winning three and finishing second twice. Based on his latest effort, I have to include him in my selections.
Rich’s Ranks
11 – Darkbonee – I think catching extra distance is really going to help here.
10 – Small Fry – Gets a great trip – close to the front without a ton of pace.
5 – Juja Kibo – Been rolling at the group level – one of the rightful favorites.
4 – Smokin’ Romans – Longshot that will be out front – if he can get away from the pace on reasonable fractions – holds on for a piece.
Where Tom and Rich Agree
There are several runners that appear on both handicappers’ lists, despite their different approaches to evaluating the races.
Race 5 – #6 Strong Tempo: Both recognize the potential for improvement following a respectable group-level performance.
Race 6 – #3 Don’t Hope Do and #9 Saluted: Tom and Rich both include these contenders, with Saluted’s versatility and track record making her particularly interesting.
Race 7 – #6 Caddington and #2 Natural Fling: Caddington’s improvement and Natural Fling’s class relief earn attention from both handicappers.
Race 8 – #8 Shadhavar and #1 Jimmysstar: Tom favors the in-form Shadhavar, while Rich also respects her early-speed advantage. Both recognize Jimmysstar’s class.
Race 9 – #10 Small Fry and #5 Juja Kibo: Both handicappers agree these Melbourne Cup-connected runners deserve serious consideration.
Final Thoughts
The Sandown Hillside stakes program offers an interesting contrast between improving younger runners and established Group 1 performers.
Tom’s trip analysis and international racing experience combine with Rich’s focus on pace, speed, distance and form cycles to provide two perspectives on the five-race card.
With several shared contenders and a handful of different top selections, there may be opportunities to uncover wagering value beyond the obvious favorites.
Five races. Two handicappers. One goal: finding winners and value on Australian turf.
