Foreign Friday heads to Caulfield Racecourse in Melbourne, Australia, where Tom and Rich tackle five competitive races featuring the Vain Stakes, Quezette Stakes, P.B. Lawrence Stakes, Regal Roller Stakes, and Toby Newton Handicap.
Australian racing continues to provide some of our favorite handicapping opportunities because the combination of track conditions, distance records, race fitness, barrier trials, class changes, and race shape can uncover contenders beyond the obvious favorites. Tom approaches the card through traditional form, class, trips, equipment changes and race placement, while Rich’s Ranks focuses heavily on speed, improvement cycles, surface and distance records, running style, and potential betting value.
Here’s how 22-1 Tom’s Tips and Rich’s Ranks see Saturday’s Caulfield card.
Race 5: Tobin Brothers Vain Stakes – 12:45 am ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
2 – Closer To Free – won a Group Three, placed in a Group One at Caulfield and did not run at all in his last race. Returning to the races after two barrier trials. The Group Three was his first start and he went off at 12-1 odds.
5 – Outspan – he has won an open race and placed in a Group Three race, and his last race was a bust in a Group One race. Ok barrier trials and has won on the soft going. He drops in distance from his last two races. A short-distance sprinter type?
1 – Tornado Valley – first up after running in a Group One race. He won a Group Three last year. He won his barrier trial and they are making equipment changes. Full late run.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – Almontego – was faster last out – room for more in 3rd race
1 – Tornado Valley – has a Group 1 win – soft 3/1-1-1
3 – Hard Kick – looks like he might be a little faster than the favorite
8 – Organised Crime – most upside potential in the 2nd career start
Race 6: Quayclean Quezette Stakes – 1:25 am ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
1 – Lady Antipova – four for four and won a Group One last time out. Drop in distance and a bunch of equipment changes, including a synthetic hoof filler. Won her last barrier trial, but the trial before was faster. Should be behind the speed in the race. Likes soft going.
8 – Scintillation – won her only start this season at this distance versus open company. She won one of her barrier trials before this race and won on soft going. Must consider.
5 – Natural Fling – she’s only run on soft going and won one and finished second in the other race. Good barrier trials and won the last trial in a very fast time. Moves up in class and should sit behind the speed in the race.
I would consider 19 – Flying Fury if she draws into the race.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – Lara Antipova – hard to argue with 4/4 with a pair of G2s and a G1
10 – Riverina Lulu – 2nd race upside and her debut was close as it was
5 – Natural Fling – comment says very speedy filly – both races fit
7 – Stars Of Dom – will be closing and has 3 quality races in 3 starts
Race 7: Catanachs Jewellers P.B. Lawrence Stakes – 2:00 am ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
7 – Cosmic Crusader – won his last start at Caulfield in a Group Three race. He is four for four on the soft going and comes from behind. Won at this distance before. Adding a tongue-tie.
12 – Coeur Volante – she has had some success on the soft going and has won at the Group Two level. Off the last race, running fourth, in a Benchmark 100 race. She’s won four out of seven races at Caulfield and is five out of eight at this distance.
5 – Pinstriped – first start of the season, he ran fourth at the Benchmark 100 level. Today, he draws post position four and should sit midpack to have a chance at the end. He hasn’t won in a while, but off the last race, I will take a chance.
Rich’s Ranks
7 – Cosmic Crusader – another can’t-argue horse 4/4 on soft
13 – Ohope Wins – looks like she has explosive late speed making up tons of ground
12 – Coeur Volante – track 7/4-0-0 – distance 7/5-0-0 – soft 7/4-0-0 – 14/3-0-1 in others
8 – Wootton Verni – absolute Tom horse – probably doesn’t win – but close at big prices
Race 8: Evergreen Turf Regal Roller Stakes – 2:35 am ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
4 – Ndola – he won his first start of the season in a Listed race at Flemington. His last race, he ran fourth in a Group Three race. His racing position should be a bit behind the speed and he will pounce at the end. Great record at this distance of nine starts, five wins and two seconds.
6 – Persian Spirit – his first-up record is good with five starts, two wins and three placings. He ran in two barrier trials and won one of them. He’s placed twice at this level and should be in the back of the field to make one run. There is plenty of speed up front.
1 – Arkansaw Kid – he raced once and ran third in a Group Three at Flemington. He’s good at running in the money more than winning with twenty starts at this distance and four wins and eight placings. He wants the lead and there are two others who should go with him. Can he hang on at the end?
Rich’s Ranks
4 – Ndola – doesn’t run 2 in a row too often – finally healthy?
1 – Arkansaw Kid – soft 6/0-5-0 – so we put him 2nd
7 – Recommendation – probably doesn’t win – but always close late
11 – Asakura – runs well 1st up – first go on a soft surface
Race 9: Toby Newton Handicap – 3:15 am ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
8 – First Chorus – she has won three in a row and two of the races were at the Benchmark 100 level. She has been great at this distance with five starts, three wins and two placings. She prefers the heavy to soft going and drops in distance today. She is the one to beat.
4 – Detonator Jack – ran second last time at this level after running eighth the time before. He came from seventh with a good rush. Today, he draws inside and should get shuffled back to make one run at the leaders.
11 – Lovelycut – she ran second last time out at the Benchmark 84 level. She has never won at this distance but has placed once. She prefers the heavy going but has placed once on the soft going. She will sit behind the speed and should have a good run to again run in the money.
Rich’s Ranks
11 – Lovelycut – expecting better in the 2nd up according to resume
13 – Darkbonee – another that improves in round 2 off the bench
8 – First Chorus – 3 race win streak and loves off turf
12 – Somewhere – classic 3rd start after a layoff and usually part of the story
Where Tom and Rich Agree
There are several interesting points of agreement between the two handicapping approaches.
Tornado Valley makes both lists in the Vain Stakes, with Tom pointing toward his Group-level credentials, barrier trial and equipment changes while Rich notes the Group 1 win and strong record on soft footing.
Natural Fling makes both lists in the Quezette Stakes. Tom likes what she’s shown on soft going and the fast barrier trial, while Rich sees a speedy filly whose first two races fit this field.
The strongest agreement may come in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes, where both Tom and Rich put Cosmic Crusader on top. His perfect 4-for-4 record on soft going makes him particularly interesting if the expected conditions hold.
They agree again on Ndola as the top choice in the Regal Roller Stakes.
The finale provides another intriguing overlap. Tom puts First Chorus on top while Rich ranks her third, and Rich puts Lovelycut on top while Tom has her among his three selections.
Different handicapping methods are leading to many of the same horses — and when independent approaches begin converging on the same runners, those are horses worth paying particular attention to on Saturday at Caulfield.
