Foreign Friday heads back to Flemington Racecourse in Australia for five quality races loaded with familiar names, accomplished stakes runners, improving horses and a few opportunities to take a swing against short-priced favorites.
The card features the Lexus Archer Stakes, De Bortoli Tontonan Stakes, HKJC World Pool Bobbie Lewis Quality, Crown Makybe Diva Stakes and Asahi Super Dry Let’s Elope Stakes.
Tom attacks Flemington through traditional form, distance and track records, fitness cycles, barrier draws, race placement and trip analysis. Rich’s Ranks focus on course and distance performance, improvement patterns, first- and second-up records, track affinity and opportunities to find value away from the obvious favorite.
Australian Insomnia Racing is back.
Race 5: Lexus Archer Stakes – 12:30 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
4 – Jennivamoose – comes into this race off two third-place finishes at Caulfield. Adds distance today but has won twice at this distance from four starts. Improved draw and should settle nicely for a chance. She has won two out of three third-up.
6 – Shockletz – ran this distance and won at Flemington. Trainer is using the same type of race to prep for this today. Ran fourth in last start, a bit slow out of the gate and settled, moved up, and ran fourth. Add blinkers today.
3 – Nearco Frod – ran 2400m last out and won by about half a length. Two starts at this distance, winning once at this track. He comes into this race on a four-race winning streak. Favorite but moving up in class.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – SHOCKLETZ – 2 for 2 at the distance – better in 2nd up
2 – LITZDEEL – track 4/1-3-0 and 1 for 1 at the distance
10 – SUFFOLK STAR – ITM 10/15 on Good – 4 straight race improvements
4 – JENNIVAMOOSE – will be flying late – distance 4/2-0-1
Race 6: De Bortoli Tontonan Stakes – 1:05 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
8 – Sass Appeal – came into the last race on a four-race winning streak and failed at the BM100 level on a soft track. All wins are on good going. She will show some early speed and then settle. Never lost at Flemington and is three for three at this distance there.
7 – Fancify – showed speed, set the pace, and won at the BM100 level at Caulfield on soft going. She improved from her previous race. She raced this distance ten times and won five. Based on the field, she should set the pace again.
3 – Cote Alantique – ran his best race so far; was a third at this distance last time. He has done well at this distance and at this level in the past. The only concern I have is the outside draw in twelve.
Rich’s Ranks
8 – SASS APPEAL – usually want to pick against the favorite – but 4/4 at Flemington
6 – LIM’S SALTORO – winner 7/12 on good footing and room for more in 2nd up
7 – FANCIFY – all or nothing and right distance 9/5-0-0 – others 15/3-6-1
10 – JUST PARTY – will be closing late – won last and improves in round 2 off the sidelines
Race 7: HKJC World Pool Bobbie Lewis Quality – 1:40 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
9 – Recon – slow beginning, moved well enough to run sixth. This is a second-up horse with three starts and three wins. He will be running hard at the end.
5 – Oliveanotherday – won a Group 3 last time out on the soft going. He has run well on both good and soft going, so I think, based on his last race, he will run well today.
3 – Hedged – first start of the season was on the heavy going, and he ran wide, evenly, and it was a first start. Get weight off and a good going, and he will return to form.
Rich’s Ranks
Taking a few cracks at the heavy favorite.
13 – LOSESOMEWINMORE – horse for the course – 9/5-0-0 – elsewhere 8/2-3-1 – 6 of 7 wins on good
9 – RECON – all or nothing – 14/6-0-0 – all 6 wins in 10 on good footing – wins 2nd up
5 – OLIVEANOTHERDAY – here is the 90-cent ML favorite – winner 5 in a row
12 – ENXUTO – super longshot 70-1 ML – 2nd and 3rd in last two at Flemington and the 3rd was first up like today – ITM Tom horse
Race 8: Crown Makybe Diva Stakes – 2:20 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
12 – Sheza Alibi – she ran second-last out at Randwick running 1400m. She closed well but was a bit short on fitness? She gets a weight advantage and is one-for-one at Flemington, and she is three-for-three at this distance.
1 – Mr Brightside – he won this race last year (and the year before) and ran second in his first start of the season. Solid run but no match for the winner. This 9yo has run this distance 25 times, winning 13 and placing in the money 7 times.
4 – Sir Delius – won his two barrier trials and comes into the race off a win before the layoff. He has not won at this distance but placed twice from two tries. First up, he ran five times, won twice, and placed three times. Fresh horse ready to roll.
Rich’s Ranks
4 – SIR DELIUS – good 6/5-1-0 including 3 straight Group 1 wins
12 – SHEZA ALIBI – unbeaten in 3 at the distance and 1 for 1 at the track
11 – SHE’S A HUSTLER – let’s go bombs away – ITM in 9/11 on good – maybe thought she was going to scratch
3 – LIGHT INFANTRY MAN – horse for the course – 5/3-0-0 – others 31/4-5-4
Race 9: Asahi Super Dry Let’s Elope Stakes – 2:55 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
10 – Gold Medallist – ran fifth last time out at Caulfield in a Group Three; she was off slowly and went a bit wide. She won at this distance before; this is her best distance, with four wins from five starts and the other run in the money. She won second up (and third up), and for a five-year-old, she has run only nine times in her career.
8 – On Display – she has two average barrier trials and hasn’t done much more than a few races. So, what do you do? Adding blinkers may help, and shortening the distance could help as well. So far, she’s better at getting in the money than winning. Longshot.
1 – Salty Pearl – ran third last time at Caulfield in a Group Three. Slow to start, settled quickly, and when asked, ran on strongly. Second up, she has not won but placed three out of three races. She will continue to improve but her record says play her for an in-the-money run.
Rich’s Ranks
4 – GOLD COAST BELLE – 7/5-2-0 and distance 4/3-1-0
6 – SEA WHAT I SEE – ITM 10/13 on good – solid at Flemington – ITM 1st up
10 – GOLD MEDALLIST – proper distance 5/4-1-0 – second up is questionable
7 – MERRIGOLD – has run well enough first up, distance and track to hit the board
Australian Insomnia Racing Returns
Flemington gives us exactly what we want from Foreign Friday: strong fields, accomplished stakes horses, course specialists, unusual form cycles and enough price possibilities to make staying up until nearly 3:00 in the morning seem at least slightly reasonable.
Tom has the traditional form.
Rich has the track and distance numbers.
And in a couple of these races, we’re taking some swings.
Five races.
Five stakes.
Foreign Friday from Flemington.
Let’s find something worth losing sleep over.
