Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips, Analysis and Selections for Saturday’s Late Pick 4
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 8 – Claiming Crown Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial Starter Stakes
#9 – Xy Speed has won two races in a row and now drops in class today. He likes the distance winning nine out of seven races and is two for two at Gulfstream Park.
#2 – Bad Beat Brian keeps closing to just miss winning, running 2nd in his last race he is improving in each race. He has finished 80% of the time in the money this year, winning 30% of the races. He has one of the highest last race speed ratings in the race.
#10 – Discreet Tune has won two of his last four races running second in the other two this year. Should improve while returning to the Turf and at a shorter distance. The Trainer Carlos David in last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-1).
#4 – The Connector has won eight out of twenty-two career races and has his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Race 9 – Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Starter Stakes
#8 – Miles Ahead returns finished second only losing by a neck at 5 furlongs and now stretches out to seven furlongs which will help his closing style. He switches to a high % jockey Paco Lopez, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. He has a good 4F workout on 24Nov GP 4f ft :46.4 Bg2/64.
#9 – Well Defined had plenty of trouble in his last race which affected how he finished. He does well at today’s distance finishing seven out of nine in the money, winning four races. His Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
#3 – Financial System just missed in his last race at Gulfstream Park. High % trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. wins 31% of the races when bringing a Beaten favorite back to the races. The Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (11 6-0-3).
#5– Pudding won four races out of six races at today’s distance and has a Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0). He has a Bullet Workout on 27Nov 5f ft :59.3 B 1/32.
#6 – Star Sign comes in from Parx to try Gulfstream Park for the first time. He likes the distance winning two out of two races and has the highest last race speed rating.
Race 10 – Claiming Crown Jewel Starter Stakes
#10 – Hanalei’s Houdini – I believe this race is all about the distance and this horse has shown that today’s distance will prove to be no obstacle. I think he was claimed in the last race with this race in mind.
#3 – Girolamo’s Attack has won two races in a row at a mile and now tries a 1-1/16. He has the highest last race speed rating and has a Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (11 6-0-3).
#6 – Strike Appeal has won five out of his last seven starts at Thistledown and comes to Gulfstream to try and extend his winning ways. He has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
#4 – Tune In has finished in the money in his last ten races, winning six of them. He has a bullet workout on 07Nov 4f ft :46.1 B 1/42.
Race 11 – Claiming Crown Emerald Starter Stakes
#1 – Mid Day Image breaks from the rail post which is winning at 20% clip, and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a Sharp 5F workout on 28Nov GP 5f ft :59.1 B 2/21.
#11 – Light Fury has won three out of his last five starts. She has a good workout on 27Nov GP 4f ft :48.2 B 19/150.
#4 – Clear Vision has won his last two starts on the turf at today’s distance and the trainer wins 100%: when shipping a horse to a new track. His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and a good workout 4F workout (Nov-26).
#8 – Max K. O. is within a nose and a neck of winning his last five races. Should improve while returning to the Turf and the trainer wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race. Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (11 6-0-3).
#13 – Call Curt (AE) to improve in 2nd start since layoff and can improve while returning to a route and has a good 4F workout 26Nov GP 4f ft :48.1 B 8/27.
#3 – Attentive just missed winning Finishing 3rd in his last start and now gets Chantal Sutherland in the irons a very good aggressive jockey. He has a good 4F workout 29Nov GP 4f ft :47.3 B. 2/13
$.50 Pick 4-Cost: $108.00
- Race 6: 2, 9, 10
- Race 7: 3, 8, 9
- Race 8: 3, 4, 6, 10
- Race 9: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11, 13
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Race 8 – Claiming Crown Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial Starter Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: Like you would expect a ton of speed in this 5 furlong sprint.
#9 Xy Speed– Will be behind a couple horses but should get a nice trip from an outside post. Loves the distance winning 6 of 7 with a second. Turf overall has won 7 of 9 with a second and third. Also likes Gulfstream winning 2 of 2. Gets Paco Lopez for the first time.
#5 Henry’s World– Will be part of the fast pace but who better to have riding a speed horse than Edgar Zayas. Zayas is 3 for 3 with this horse. Has finished in the exacta in half of his 12 Gulfstream starts and half of his 16 races from this distance.
#3 Harry’s Ontheloose– Won 2 races in a row on the turf before going to the synthetic now gets to return to preferred surface of the turf. Decent numbers at the track and distance and typically around at the end.
Plays: $16 win #9 $1 Exbox 3,5,9
Race 9 – Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Starter Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: The early leader will be one of the following three horses. #3 Financial System, #9 Well Defined, and #11 Legal Deal. If one of these horses gets a clear lead look out.
#3 Financial System– Likes a fast track winning 3 of 4 races with a second. 3 of those races are at Gulfstream and he is 2 for 2 at the distance. Will have other speed in the race but not too much so should get a nice trip and if things go his way up front will be really hard to beat.
#11 Legal Deal– Another that could be part of the pace but has won off the pace before. The outside post will help. Edwin Gonzalez has been on this horse twice got a win and a second. Has won 6 of the 12 at Gulfstream.
#8 Miles Ahead– If ready to go after a 3-month layoff will be dangerous. Workouts suggest he is ready. Does well at track winning 7 of 15. Has won 3 of 4 races with Paco Lopez aboard.
Plays: $20 win #3 $1 Exbox 3,8,11
Race 10 – Claiming Crown Jewel Starter Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: Lots of speed in this race as much as half the field will go for the lead or be up close. #1 Ludington, #3 Girlamo’s Attack, #4 Tune In, #6 Strike Appeal, and #9 Mo Hawk all could be part of the early pace.
#3 Girlamo’s Attack– Has won 3 straight races at Gulfstream. The only 2 times Zayas has been aboard which were the last 2 races were wins. Has won 4 of 8 at Gulfstream hitting the board in all 8. Will be a part of the pace but does not need the lead. First time going this far would be the only concern.
#5 Glory of Florida– Has finished in the exacta in his last four fast dirt track starts. Will come from about mid pack and there is enough pace in here for that to be a good spot.
#4 Tune In– Has been really sharp this year winning 6 of 9 races and hitting the board in every race. Has speed but doesn’t need the lead Leonel Reyes has been aboard this horse six times has won 4 of them and getting second in the two other races.
Plays: $16 win #3 $1 Tribox 3,4,5
Race 11 – Claiming Crown Emerald Starter Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: There is a couple horses in here who might show speed but the one from the rail #1 Mid Day Image looks to be the speed of the speed and he’s going to be sent from the rail.
#1 Mid Day Image– Should be the speed of the race from the rail. Will get Paco Lopez for the first time. Has won 6 of 11 career races on the turf including 3 out of 4 at Gulfstream. He is also 2 for 2 at the distance.
#11 Light Fury– Will be up near the pace. Going from 2 synthetic races back to turf. The trainer is 4 for 20 with a positive ROI going from dirt to turf. Has had some really good workouts since last race a little over a month ago. Has won 5 of 10 at Gulfstream and hit the board in 9 of 10. Has also won 2 out of 3 at the distance with a second.
#10 Mandate– Has won back-to-back races at different tracks at double digit odds. Both those races Andrew Wolfsont was aboard, and he will be again today. Will be coming from mid pack and closing late. Has won at Gulfstream before as he is 1 for 3 there.
Plays: $18 win #1 $1 exbox 1,10,11 $1 Tribox 1,10,11
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 8 – Claiming Crown Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial Starter Stakes
3 – Harry’s Ontheloose
Since claimed, 2 wins from 5 starts
Used AW race to prepare for this race and then layoff
Steady works but nothing special (normal)
Negative – the Turf Sprint race was a step up and failed to do no better than 5th. This race was without Lasix.
6 – Mystery Messenger
Claimed for 32k and ran a good 4th vs 80k optional claimers
He’s been bouncing around on the turf at various distances but
5f record is 6 starts 2 wins 2 seconds and 1 third
3 works at track at 5f on dirt – ok works, prep for this race
Negative – Trainers record of shipping or non-graded stakes is not good
2 – Bad Beat Brian
Claimed for 40k and next three races were 2 places and 1 third
Gaining in last race and needs to move earlier
Faced allowance company after vs allowance 25k types
Mike Maker claimed this horse before and the last claim was a drop from 62.5k to 40k
The :47.1 work was good
Raced at Del Mar, Kentucky Downs & Keeneland
Race 9 – Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Starter Stakes
5 – Pudding
Claimed for 25k and move up to handicap and won
Been move up ever since to 2 races at 62.5k and 80k and running well
Record at distance makes we want to play – 6 starts 4 wins 1 second at the 20k level
Should be close to the pace to make a move for the win
Work is good :59.3
8 – Miles Ahead
Won grade 3 at Gulfstream at 6f and then put way over his head in a grade 1
Last race was a just missing as the favorite in a move turf race at 5f
Paco Lopez has the mount and won with this horse before
Really nice work of :46.4 from the starting gate – one of his best works based on the pattern of races
Has won at this distance once from 3 tries
Favorite
1 – I’m a G Six
Layoff the August to October with a needed race
Claimed for 62,5k and won at this level after claim
Tried grade 3 company with an average run but at a distance that doesn’t suit the horse
Trainer has good record with 2nd race after layoff with 33% win and 59% in the money with positive ROI. Trainer has started only 38 this year with his horses
Only 1 win at distance
Race 10 – Claiming Crown Jewel Starter Stakes
4 – Tune In
9 starts this year 6 wins 2 seconds 1 third
One race around 2 turns and with a second to a stakes winner
Won on both dirt and turf
Work at Palm Meadows of 46.1 shows fitness
Like many of these horses, 1 1/8 is a distance not run before
10 – Hanalei’s Houdini
Claimed by Mike Maker for 50k from last race to run in this race
Trainers record in claiming crown is 17 wins
Made a bid in last race after layoff and the layoff again
3 works on AW and 1 at Gulfstream, 1 good work on :59.3
One run at 1 1/8 and ran second
3 – Girolamo’s Attack
Speed, should be are front runner and won last 2 doing just that
Good efforts in handicap races
Running at 25k type races at GP
Joseph Saffie trained and good combo with trainer and jockey recently
Good record at GP – 8 starts 4 wins 2 seconds 1 third
2 turns and distance?
Race 11 – Claiming Crown Emerald Starter Stakes
10 – Benelux
Not the best race last out at Keeneland but it was on a yielding course and against very tough company in an allowance race for nw3 ($90k)
Starts on the turf 15 with 4 wins 2 seconds
Working out at Palm Meadows on the turf course, 2 works
Completive in most of his races except the allowance company races
8 – Max K.O.
Claimed 3 times in last 10 races
Dropped to 16k race, claimed and won
Last 6 races either first or second including one on the AW
Has 4 wins at the distance
Could win?
3 – Attentive
Claimed last out by Mike Maker for 40k, ran 3rd losing by ¾ L
9 runs, 6 in the money finishes including 2 wins
Horse has changed owner 6 times in last 10 races
Works under new trainer – :47.3 and :47.2
Mike Maker claimed this horse before
Rich’s Ranks
Race 8 – Claiming Crown Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial Starter Stakes
9 – XY SPEED
11 – ADMIRAL ABE
5 – HENRY’S WORLD
3 – HARRY’S ONTHELOOSE
Race 9 – Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Starter Stakes
8 – MILES AHEAD
11 – LEGAL DEAL
3 – FINANCIAL SYSTEM
9 – WELL DEFINED
Race 10 – Claiming Crown Jewel Starter Stakes
3 – HARD LIGHTING
4 – TUNE IN
7 – TWELVE VOLT MAN
1 – LUDINGTON
Race 11 – Claiming Crown Emerald Starter Stakes
1 – MID SAY IMAGE
8 – MAX K.O.
11 – LIGHT FLURY
14 – VOW ME NOW (AE)
