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Gulfstream Picks & Analysis: Smart Sheets, Bias Insights, and Rich’s Winning Strategy for Every Race

The Gulfstream Park Championship Meet is officially underway, and Terry and Rich kick off full-season coverage with a 9-race card featuring fast dirt, races moved off the turf, and key matchups on the Tapeta All-Weather track.

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GP-12-11-25.pdf

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Terry’s Picks

Gulfstream -12-11-25

Race 1-Female

5 – Highway Harmony – Drops in class today; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

11 – Plagne Champagne – Last race finished 2nd as the favorite. Has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races with beaten favorites; Drops in class today.

4 – Magical Trick – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race; Has a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

3 – Normanjito – Drops in class today; She has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

2 – Lu’s Redemption

Race 2-Female

3 – Slender Slipper – Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer; Likes the distance.

5 – Girvin Star: Top last race speed rating; trainer wins 50% in second starts with the trainer; early speed boosts chances; best speed at today’s distance.

1 – La Tremenda – She has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Lance’s Smile – She has won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

6 – Mean to Me

7 – Ellagio

$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5/1,7/1,2,3,6,7/6,10 – Cost $50.00

Race 3

7 – Game Energy – Won last race at Gulfstream Park; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races she has a horse competing in; Likes the distance.

1 – Maitre D– Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey; Has a bullet 3F workout (Dec-04).

3 – Adversary – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Coffee At K J’s – Drops in class today with the highest last race speed rating. The trainer wins 25% in third race after layoff, and the jockey also has a high win percentage.

Alternate:

5 – Smokin Jack Flash

Race 4-Female

6 – Volatiled – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Cooey: Won debut at Gulfstream after arriving from Southern California; draws an advantageous rail post (19%-win rate) and is backed by a trainer with a 25% dirt win rate and a strong jockey-trainer team.

2 – Wiggle An’ Wine – Won last race at Gulfstream; Has a high-percentage trainer and jockey; a good 5F workout (Dec-04).

Longshot:

7 – Breezey Bella – Finished in the money in the last 3 races, winning the last start; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

3 – Chill Bean

Race 5

10 – Brigade Commander – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.

6 – Quizler – Likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 83% of the races, winning 33% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 75% of the races.

5 – Irwin – Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Full Nelson – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race.

Alternate:

8 – Anamnestic

Race 6-Female

1 – Winplaceandshow – Finished 3rd in only start; Rail post is winning at a19% clip; Has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.

2 – Sonnynpeaches: First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Sun Kiss – Trainer excels with AW-to-dirt moves (75%-win rate); top jockey aboard; blinkers on and posted a strong 4F workout on Dec-05.

Longshot:

4 – Lady Rockula – Finished 3rd (on AW) in last race; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

5 – La Rodada

7 – Empath

$.50 Pick 4: 1 thru 7 /2,6/2/1,2,5,6,7,8 – Cost $42.00

Race 7-Female

6 – It’s Only Words: Likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 79% of the races, winning 29% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 82% of the races, winning 45% of the starts.

2 – Tinki Abarrio – Finished 3rd in last race; Trained by a high-percentage trainer and has a good 4F workout (Dec-03).

4 – Brenna – Won last race; She has a high % winning trainer and has a bullet 4F workout (Nov-24).

Longshot:

7 – Neom City – Finished in the money in 9 races out of 13 starts at Gulfstream, winning 3 races; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

3 – Smart Jenny

Race 8

2 – Gabaldon: Finished 2nd last out on AW; early speed suits shorter distance; top speed at today’s distance; Trainer has high win percentage.

5 – Sticky McShnickens – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race and he a high % winning trainer and jockey.

4 – Carcone – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Corso’s Pick – Has an early foot so the short distance will help: Trained by a high-percentage jockey.

Alternate:

1 – Snowname

Bet: $40.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/1,4,5,7

Race 9-Female

8 – Omo Ten Girl – Won last race at Gulfstream; has top speed ratings for both last race and today’s distance; shares fastest AW speed among starters; trainer and jockey have high win rates.

1 – Misprint: Won 3 races out of the last 4 starts; Drops in class today; Trained by a high-percentage trainer.

5 – Happy Ride –Trained by a high-percentage trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

6 – Love Mami Love – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse; Can handle the distance.

Alternate:

2 – Fulminate

Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 8th Race – #2 – Gabaldon

Rich’s Picks

Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Off

11 – PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE – big SIM FAV with better EP and Fractions – AW 5/2-2-0 – faster

6 – SUNSET HARBOUR – tr strong on 2nd after the claim – 35% vs 22% overall

5 – HIGHWAY HARMONY – could be out front by herself and resume says 2nd up as good or better

4 – MAGICAL TRICK – highly consistent on AW at Woodbine – top closer

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,5,6,11

Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out

5 – GIRVIN STAR – has an aggressive EP edge and top TP +10 – biggest class drop

3 – SLENDER SLIPPER – nice win in last – 6f dirt is her best  5/2-1-1 – 13/0-0-3 at others

6 – MEAN TO ME – could be forward – decent works prepping for 1st up

1 – LA TREMENDA – better 5 ways in last and by far best C ZONE

$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6/1,4/1,2,6,7/2,5,6,10

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs AW – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair

4 – COFFEE AT K J’S – TLRSP#+7 – should be involved from the start with LS+5

1 – MAITRE D – heavy SIM FAV – YES horse dropping with by far best PAR+

7 – GAME ENERGY – speed with first Lasix – usually a good combination

3 – ADVERSARY – consistent performer – can rate or close – other YES with the 1

$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/1,3,7

Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out

1 – COOEY – going to be on the pace – and better in 2nd up and 2nd at GP after coming out of the Baffert Barn in California – lots of upside

6 – VOLATILED – TLRSP#+6 – resume says the number should go higher in 2nd up

2 – WIGGLE AN’ WINE – definitely an AW horse 5/3-1-0 – a win and 2nd with Irad riding

7 – BREEZEY BELLA – 3SP# increases in a row – – 2 works between starts

3 – CHILL BEAN

5 – ATALANTA ALEXANDRA

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Off

5 – IRWIN – Huge PAR+ edge and by Far Best C ZONE – biggest class dropper

6 – QUIZLER – Top TOTAL PACE – strong on turf – first try on AW – turf #s say should be OK

10 – BRIGADE COMMANDER – never off the board in 5/2-2-1 at the distance – Irad

2 – OUTTA MONEY – Left Arrow horse – no speed in here – right fractions and its w2w

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,6,10

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out

7 – EMPATH – Top Rated 1ster with NOV 1 – 4f in 47.3 and another at 48

3 – MAX – 2nd rated 1st timer – decent works

2 – SONNYNPEACHES – Irad and Jose D’Angelo winner 3/7 together

5 – LA RODADA – Only YES horse – but – 0/5 so far

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7/4,5,6/2,4,5/1,5,8

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,5,7

Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out

6 – IT’S ONLY WORDS – left arrow with tie for top C ZONE, PAR+ and Top TOTAL PACE

5 – BOTH SIDES – horse for the course, 19/6-1-2 vs 8/1-1-1 elsewhere

4 – BRENNA – easy win in last and bullet work since – in form

2 – TINKI ABARRIO – consistent horse that should be better in the 3rd up

Race 8: 5 Furlongs Turf – Off

2 – GABALDON – should be out front – absolutely seen tougher and has plenty of upside

5 – STICKY MCSHNICKENS – almost always around at the end at GP 8/0-2-4

4 – CARCONE – big SIM FAV – never off the board in 6 synthetic runs

1 – SNOWNAME – if he is going to win – it will be on AW 4/11 and just 1 on 13 anywhere else

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs AW – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair

8 – OMO TEN GIRL – kind of hard to get past a TLRSP# +19 – better 5 ways too – 3SP# increases

1 – MISPRINT – major SIM FAV – lone PC and consistent

5 – HAPPY RIDE – up and down performances – gets Irad – capable of stakes level mid moves

6 – LOVE MAMI LOVE – hasn’t made 3 starts in a row for the 1st time in a year – finally healthy

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