Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Tips
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mountaineer Park
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Talkin Malice – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race after being wide throughout the race and received the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 66% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he has a trainer/jockey combo that in the last 14 days that has this record (5 2-0-0).
2 – Colavito – He ran poorly in his last race after breaking slow and running wide throughout the race – He drops in class today; the trainer wins 18% of sprint races and he has a high % winning Jockey.
7 – Autism Can Do – He won his last race at Turf Paradise; his best dirt speed is close to the Avg winning speed, and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
4 – Stanley Ryder – He closed to finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at 6-furlongs and now stretches out to 6-1/2 furlongs which can only help as he has won at this distance.
Alternate:
3 – Bubba Bay
1 – Haveulostyourmind
Race 2
7 – Union Brother – He finished in the money in his last seven races, winning three of them at Turf Paradise – The trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
2 – Huntingtons Rithm – He likes the track finishing in the money in 33% of the time and winning 17% of the races and the distance is in his wheelhouse as he has finished in the money in 62% of the time winning 38% of the races – He switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (32 9-3-7) and he has a good 4F workout on 11Apr Tup 4f ft :47 H 4/20.
3 – Captain Scotty – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race only missing by a neck, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He switches to a high % winning jockey, and he has a good 4F workout on 12Apr Tup 4f ft :47 H 4/19.
1 – Baltimore Beecho –He ran 2nd in last race Turf Paradise – He is having a good year finishing in the money in 80% of the time and winning 40% of the races and the trainer wins 18% in dirt starts.
Alternate:
6 – Redaction
5 – Buttered Noodles
Race 3
6 – High Flyin Tiger – He tried turf in his last race and did not care for it, so he is now back to the dirt track. – He has a trainer who wins 36% of the time when he drops a horse down 2+ classes and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – By Moonlight – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Ellie the Nurse – He has had a couple of mediocre races, but so has many of the other entries – The difference is that during his career he has won a higher % of races than any of the other entries – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (32 9-3-7) – The trainer wins 33% when going from a sprint to route.
2 – Shakelas Destiny– He does well at the track finishing in the money in 57% of the time and likes the distance in the money in 61% of the time.
Alternate:
1 – Big Larry
4 – Lucky Chance
Race 4
2 – Astronomical – He finished in the money in his last three races, winning the last race, getting the highest last race speed rating and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – The trainer wins 100% of the time when he drops a horse off a win and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (18 6-2-0).
1 – Perfect Wager – He Ran 2nd vs similar in last race at Turf Paradise at today’s distance, he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey and this combo in last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0). His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – The Beat – He finished in the money in four of his last five races, winning two of the races and finished 3rd in the last race. He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, high % winning trainer and a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (15 4-5-2).
7 – Sebastian’s Boy – He won his last race at Turf Paradise and at today’s distance. He has a good trainer and a decent workout.
Alternate:
6 – Tizona
4 – Rail Hugger
Race 5
1 – Missczech – She has won two out of four career races winning her last race at Turf Paradise and at today’s distance – She has highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She has a High % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (32 9-3-7).
4 – Ellie Can Play – She won her debut race at Turf Paradise easily and her best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed.
7 – Smiling Salsa – She won her last race at Turf Paradise and has a high % winning trainer who is winning at a 20% clip.
5 – Addydidit – She likes Turf Paradise finishing in the money in three out of three starts, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race and switches to a high % jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 6-2-0). The trainer wins 29% of the time in Sprints.
Alternate:
6 – Autism Prism
2 – Cadillac Margarita
Race 6
1 – North of Eden – She has finished in the money in eight of her last ten races, winning three – She likes the distance finishing in the money in 78% of the time and winning 17% of the races and likes the track finishing in the money in 100% of the time and winning 33% of the races.
7 – Miss You Mom – She has ran 2nd in her last two races and switches to a high % winning trainer who is winning at a 23% clip.
6 – Midnight Garden – North of Eden – She ran 5th in her last race against tougher foes and now is back in a class of horses where she has performed better, winning two of three races – She has a trainer who wins 28% of the time in dirt starts and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 6-2-0).
8 – Smooth Rithms – She is a speed demon leading all the way to win her last race by almost 10 lengths at Turf Paradise, at today’s distance and received the highest last race speed rating – She has a trainer who wins 26% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
4 – Big News Coming
2 – Lexophilia
Race 7
6 – Conquest Cobra – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race missing by a neck at Turf Paradise at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning trainer a high % winning jockey.
7 – Angelo’s Pride – He finished in the money in his last four races, winning one – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and a high % winning jockey.
3 – Perfect Come Back – He has won two of the last three races and has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (32 9-3-7.
2 – Blame It On Kitty – He won his last race at Turf Paradise at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-1).
Alternate:
9 – El Borracho
5 – Spirit Mission
Race 8
9 – Miss Rebekah – She has finished 2nd in four of his last five races and earned the highest last race speed rating – She switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days who has this record (32 9-3-7).
6 – Paynt the Kitty – She ran 2nd in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -The trainer wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and the shorter distance may help.
3 – Snoozy Suzy – She ran 2nd in her last two races, likes the distance finishing in the money in 46% of the time and likes the track finishing in the money in 50% of the time.
7 – Keeponrockinmebaby – Not sure what happened in the last race as she finished 7th by 25 lengths but has had a bullet workout on 06Apr Tup 5f ft 1:00 H 1/5 which appears she just did not want to run in that last race. The shorter distance may be just what she needs.
Alternate:
1 – Wumpmug
4 – Lil’ Miss Mischief
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ furlongs, 115 races, 85 won by speed, 46 w2w – PP: slight 8+ bonus
7 – AUTISM CAN DO – showed more interest in the second half of his last start, going w2w and has a strong work since
5 – TALKIN MALICE – should have plenty of early pace to chase as the lone P/C in the field, faster by 1 second in last with better 2/4f #s
2 – COLAVITO – seems to be a better fit on turf or AW, but is dropping two classes and has a pair of thirds in 3 at the distance
6 – THEY’RE GRRREAT – has the best EP#s in the field, ran 6f a second faster in his last, if he has the lead in the stretch he wins, otherwise he’ll fade
Race 2 – 6 furlongs, 155 races, 116 won by speed, 54 w2w – PP: slight edge 4-7, small 8+ penalty
3 – CAPTAIN SCOTTY – better fractions last out, has major back class, ITM 9/13 at distance, TLRSP#, swift work since, 75k horse – in for a claim in concerning
7 – UNION BROTHER – is not in for a claim, ITM 14/18 at TP, missed as favorite in last, trainer Jose Silva rebounds at 21% vs 14% overall
1 – BALTIMORE BEECHO – better fractions last time out, top EP/LP combo, 8 High Quality starts in last 10
2 – HUNTINGTONS RITHM – major upgrade to Harry Hernandez, faster fractions last out despite going ½ furlong longer, decent work since being claimed for tr; Raymond Valerio – +3.53 ROI in 3 w/ jy HH
Race 3 – 1 mile, 163 Races, 106 won by speed, 31 w2w – PP: small rail penalty
Tough race – looking for reasons they might be better here
7 – ELLIE THE NURSE – stretches out for the first time and could have a strong EP advantage
6 – HIGH FLYIN TIGER – jockey change to Jose Zunino who has 1.52 ROI w/ trainer Esteban Martin hits at 30% (6/20) 2nd start off the claim and 4/11 down 2 classes
5 – BY MOONLIGHT – TLRSP# and could walk up the speed ladder as he has some of the best back class
3 – RISE UP MOSCOW – has the best LP#s in this group, 2nd mount for jy Michael Ybarra, last was a sprint, today is a route where he has a +2.09 ROI in last 19 races
Race 4 – 1 mile, 163 Races, 106 won by speed, 31 w2w – PP: small rail penalty
1 – PERFECT WAGER – tr Jonathan Wong takes jy Harry Hernandez off #6 to ride #1 despite HH riding the 6 three in a row – something tells me the 6 has peaked and JW likes the 1 better here
7 – SEBASTIAN’S BOY – is one of two E horses and has the top EP by a decent margin, w2w if the fractions are right
2 – ASTRONOMICAL – wanted to rank higher in the 3rd start off the bench, but finished behind #7 twice and today the 7 has a major pace advantage – although ASTRONOMICAL is the only P/C horse in the field
3 – THE BEAT – dropping a touch in class and has the best late legs, has two decent works since last race on Feb 21
Race 5 – 6 furlongs, 155 races, 116 won by speed, 54 w2w – PP: slight edge 4-7, small 8+ penalty
1 – MISSCZECH – beat many of these easily in her last, 6f time was more than a second faster than previous 6f run
4 – ELLIE CAN PLAY – has some of the better EP and LP# in winning her debut with ease
5 – ADDYDIDIT – jockey switch to Luis Negron, better ATB in her last
3 – ROSES FOR SUZZETT – tough call over #6, but won at the highest level to break maiden, much better fractions in last
Race 6 – 1 mile, 163 Races, 106 won by speed, 31 w2w – PP: small rail penalty
8 – SMOOTH RITHMS – lone E horse with the top EP#s, 1st off the claim for Tr Juan Silva 27% vs 18% overall
6 – MIDNIGHT GARDEN – 1st off the claim for trainer Justin Evans, upgrades to Justin Evans, drops back to level where it won last time
1 – NORTH OF EDEN – finished 2nd in her last 3 races on dirt, all at 1 mile
4 – BIG NEWS COMING – has the top LP#s in the field and gets an upgrade to Harry Hernandez, won the last time he rode
Race 7 – 1 mile, 163 Races, 106 won by speed, 31 w2w – PP: small rail penalty
Many of these have gone back and forth beating each other – any of top 5 can win
3 – PERFECT COME BACK – is not that far from winning 5 in a row, much better LP#s and 3rd race in a row where final 1 mile time went down
2 – BLAME IT ON KITTY – won its last with 2/4f improvement and has the best LP#s
1 – KONA COAST – lone E horse in the race, blew a tire in his last, rebounded to win the next out after a similar bad finish
7 – ANGELO’S PRIDE – ITM 6/2-2-1 at TP, missed as the favorite in his last, tr Jose Silva bounces back at 21% vs 14% overall
6 – CONQUEST COBRA – hit the board in 4/5 at TP and jy/tr combo of Karlo Lopez and Alfredo Aspirino ITM 7/8
Race 8 – 5 furlongs, 55 races, 39 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: rail, inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
9 – MISS REBEKAH – TLRSP# and resume say she could be better in 3rd start off the bench, but a least as good as last
6 – PAYNT THE KITTY – missed as the favorite in her last, trainer Vann Belvoir rebounds at 31% vs 16% overall, top EP# in a field full pf pressure horse, closers and others that have never been close
1 – WUMPMUG – gets the high win rate rail, does has some early giddy up, biggest class drop in the field
7 – KEEPONROCKINMEBABY – is the other E horse with #6, small drop here, a bullet work, and resume says her fourth start after a layoff could be best of the 4
