Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Aqueduct Full Card Picks
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Evangeline Downs
Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1-Female
3 – New York Supreme – She has finished in the money in 50% of her races and her trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-1).
1 – Frosty Invasion – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Bonana Fanna Foe – She ran 2nd in her last race only losing by a neck, has a high % winning trainer and has the highest last race speed rating.
7 – Warsalm – She has a high % winning trainer and has a decent 4F workout on Dec-02.
Alternate:
6 – Madame Rose
2 – Tonight We Love
Race 2
1 – Prairie Fire – Rail post is winning at 19% clip; the trainer wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Dat Dares Gold – She has finished in the money in nine out of her last ten races, winning three of the starts and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Greatest Love – She switches to a high % winning trainer and the distance will not be a problem.
3 – Big Q – She was claimed by a trainer in her last race who wins 22% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – Afleet Diva
6 – She’s a Black Belt
Race 3
1 – April Antics – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – She Caught My Eye – She has a trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – My Beauty Princess – Her early speed running style helps chances and she may improve with blinkers added today.
6 – Ice Kreem Sundae – She was bumped at the start of her last race which affected her finish and she has a good jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Synonymous
Race 4
4 – Chris and Dave – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 26% of claiming races.
1A – Pioneer Spirit – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Truculent – He drops in class today, his early speed running style helps chances and can improve with Blinkers added today.
5 – Hammerin Aamer – He likes Aqueduct and the distance.
Alternate:
1 – Dark Storm
Race 5
1 – Bourbon Chase – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Drake’s Passage – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and the trainer wins 23% of the 2YO races.
2 – Wanna Winna – He has an early foot, and the trainer wins 23% of the races when going Sprint-Sprint-Route.
3 – Inspector – He is trained by Steven Asmussen, ridden by Jose Lezcano and this combo in last 14 days has won three out of four races.
Alternate:
4 – Zapruder
5 – Sharpaz
Race 6
4 – Baldizar – He is undefeated in 2 career starts at Aqueduct and his early speed will be a plus.
2 – Sundaeswithsandy – He won his last race at Aqueduct and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Bossmakinbossmoves – He has a win at Aqueduct and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
6 – Prince of Pharoahs – He finished 3rd in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3- Wild Banker
Race 7
4 – Divine Wine – She takes a major class drop today, has the highest last race speed and can improve with blinkers added today.
2 – Gracefully Wild – She ran 2nd in her last race and has a good trainer and jockey.
3 – Mostly Harmless – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good workout on Nov 17th.
1 – Fuligni – She has a good workout on Dec 2nd and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
Alternate:
7 – Boxed in and Bored
8 – Charlottesometimes
Race 8
5 – Mosienko – She has won four out of her last five races, losing her last race after having quite a bit of problems during the race and she her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Piece of My Heart – She ran 2nd in her last race and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
4 – Fouette – She finished 3rd in her last race, can improve at the shorter distance and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-30.
Alternate:
2 – Hey Mamaluke
3 – Thistlefield
Race 9
5 – Styner – He has won his last two races in a row going for a hat trick and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Easy Day – He ran 2nd in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – O’Trouble – He won his last race at Aqueduct and has a bullet workout on Dec. 3rd.
9 – Runabout – He has won three out of his last five races.
Alternate:
2 – F F Rocket
Rich Rank’s
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Tactical Speed with major bonus 8+ – 33% w2w
3 – NEW YORK SUPREME – Left Arrow Horse, big 2/4f improvement in her last, mixed resume 2nd off the bench
1 – FROSTY INVASION – last race was better ATB, her PPs say expect a significant jump in round 2 after a layoff
4 – BONANA FANNA FOE – not a fan of Flakes to NYRA, but much, much faster fractions in last, tr Chris Englehart 23% in 3rd off the layoff vs 18% overall
7 – WARSALM – biggest class drop, but been off for more than a year, Nov 25th work was good
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail & 4-7 bias, 8+ penalty – 32% w2w
1 – PRAIRIE FIRE – lone PC horse, faster fractions in last at 7f in last, nice work since
4 – DAT DARES GOLD – tie TLRSP# with better ATB #s
2 – GREATEST LOVE – 1st off the claim for tr Charlton Baker 21% vs 17%, some decent recent works
3 – BIG Q – distance 7/3-2-0, best AQ#s and at Distance
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Outside In Speed – 24% w2w
1 – APRIL ANTICS – TLRSP#, 5 SP# increases, as good but probably better in race 2 after a layoff
5 – SHE CAUGHT MY EYE – Linda Rice claim and drop again, some nice works, a run back to MCL win is EZ work here
2 – MY BEAUTY PRINCESS – top EP/LP combo, some of her best fractions in last
6 – ICE KREEM SUNDAE – top LP#, was considerably better in first half mile of last
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Outside In Speed – 24% w2w
1A – PIONEER SPIRIT – Best AQ numbers by a little, much better 2/4f pace#s in last
4 – CHRIS AND DAVE – lone EP w/TLRSP# and was better ATB in last, loves 2nd at the distance 26/7-13-3
6 – TRUCULENT – big drop, lowest level in last 10, won that one w2w with ease at OP
2 – BOURBON BAY – becomes the lone P horse, probably better in 3rd off the bench with a bullet and go
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Outside In Speed – 24% w2w
1 – BOURBON CHASE – putting the Chris P angle to work, finished 2nd in both, TLRSP# with better fractions early at 7f vs 6f
7 – DRAKE’S PASSAGE – sizable stride forward in 2nd career start, couple sharpen the saw works since
2 – WANNA WINNA – possible lone E, better fractions in 2nd start too, maybe better in race 2 after a layoff
5 – SHARPAZ – hard call over the 3, some EP in debut, tr Richard Schosberg hits at 29% vs 12% overall
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Inside Out Speed – 27% w2w
4 – BALDIZAR – undefeated in two and you just don’t know how good a horse is until it loses
6 – PRINCE OF PHAROAHS – 1st off the claim for trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci vs 17%, AQ 13/0-4-3
2 – SUNDAESWITHSANDY – winner of two in a row, better ATB in his last with TLRSP#
3 – WILD BANKER – has shown some brilliant EP in past races, AQ 15/4-1-2, just 1 win in 15 elsewhere
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail & 4-7 bias, 8+ penalty – 32% w2w
4 – DIVINE WINE – +9LP Edge could move closer the front with drop, TLRSP#
2 – GRACEFULLY WILD – lone P horse between speed and closer, has best EP/LP combo
3 – MOSTLY HARMLESS – held her speed into the stretch in last race, cut back from a mile helps?
1 – FULIGNI – gets the high win rate rail in her 2nd off the break a 21% angle for 13% trainer James Bond, decent maintenance work between races
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail & 4-7 bias, 8+ penalty – 32% w2w
4 – FOUETTE – lone EP, switches to Kendrick who is better with front runners – race shape changes w scratches
5 – MOSIENKO – she drops from a 150k NGST to a level where she won 4 in a row
1 – PIECE OF MY HEART – +7LP edge, AQ 4/0-3-1, but 2nd off the bench record is spotty
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Outside Speed, big Bonus 8+ – 27% w2w
1 – O’TROUBLE – Left Arrow horse too, bullet and go work, AQ 6/3-2-1
7 – EASY DAY – Left Arrow horse that has the best EP/LP combo, TLRSP# in first at AQ
10 – LOST IN ROME – better ATB in last and vey good workout since
5 – STYNER – could be lone E in a race filled with horse that prefer to be mid and back
Aqueduct Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
