Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Enforcer – Showed early speed in his last race at PARX Racing at 6-1/2 furlongs and now cuts back to 6-furlongs – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -He has a High % winning jockey any the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
4 – The Great Gazoo – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 19% of the time when bringing a horse back after being 46-90 days away and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).
3 – Knight Legend – He has the highest last race speed rating, switches to a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on 27Apr Bel 4f ft :48 B 1/10, second bullet workout in a row.
5 – The Talented Mr U – He finished 3rd in last race and the shorter distance will help.
Alternate:
2 – Stash My Cash
6 – Thrills and Chills
Race 2
4 – Fifty Sheas Ofgrey – He ran 6th after being bumped at the start –The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
3 – Maclean’s Legacy – He finished 4th in the last race only missing by a length and received the highest last race speed rating (tie)- He has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2).
1 – Richie Goes Global – Comes in from Penn Nation and is a closer who may have a good set-up with the speed in the race.
7 – Field Officer – He has competed at PARX Racing, done ok in the past and the shorter distance will help.
Alternate:
6 – The Method
Race 3
4 – Imagism – She finished 3rd in her last race, received the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer who wins 42% of the time when taking a horse from Maiden to Maiden Claiming races.
6 – Snappy Ride – She has a high % winning trainer and may improve with Lasix added.
1 – One That Got Away – She is a first-time starter; the Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 2 stakes winners, and she has some decent workouts.
2 – Decisive Cause – She finished 4th in her last race missing by only 1-3/4 lengths at 5-1/2 furlongs, she is a closer and now goes to 6-furlong which will help her, and she may improve with Blinkers being added today.
Alternate:
3 – Lovely Melayra
Race 4
7 – Fast Intentions – She finished last in her last race, not sure what happened but she drops in class and gets a jockey change, claimed last race and the trainer wins 32% of the races after claiming a horses in their next race. – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and can improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Wishes and Dreams – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance -The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2) – She may improve with Blinkers added today.
6 – Zensational Dixie – She has been improving in each race, speed ratings increased every race in the last four races – She has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
8 – Salsa Rita – She has early speed, a high % winning trainer and drops in class today.
Alternate:
5 – Dazzling Speed
3 – Cotton Candy Cutie
Race 5
2 – French Toast – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and trainer who wins 25% of the time when bringing a horse back for the 2nd race off a layoff.
6 – Mr. Tuttle – He switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey – Returning to a route should help and the trainer in the last 7 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
3 – Beach Bandit – He won a race at PARX Racing, went up in class and disappointed in that race and now goes back down in class to try and win again.
5 – Jacks American Pie – He finished 4th after coming into the stretch wide and now drops in class today.
Alternate:
1 – Grazely
4 – Peter G. Fox
Race 6
6 – Wheresthepassion – He won his last race at PARX Racing easily, the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1) and his trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing a horse back from a 46–90-day break.
4 – One Niner Tango – He won his last race at PARX Racing earning the highest last race speed rating and has a High % winning Jockey.
3 – Yankee Joe – He has a high % winning trainer and may improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Instant Chaos –He has a Jockey change who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2).
Alternate:
5 – Frank N Ducky
1 – I’m Blaming You
Race 7
6 – Breezy Gust – He put in a clunker last race and now drops in class today – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 22% of the time when bringing a horse back from a 46-90-day break.
3 – Jump Shot –He ran a nice 2nd in his last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the time with the 1st race after a claiming the horse.
7 – Otis Otis Otis – He has finished in the money in the four out of the last five races, winning the last one at PARX Racing– He has the highest last race speed rating and a Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2).
1 – Kadens Courage – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and the rail post is winning at 27% clip.
Alternate:
2 – Drena’s Bullet
4 – Jw’strickymischief
Race 8
6 – Get the W – He has finished in the money in five out of the last six races at PARX Racing, winning the last two – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 27% of the time with the 1st race after a claiming the horse.
5 – Excursion – He finished 4th in last race at PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0), switches to a high % winning jockey and has a bullet 4F workout on 27Apr Prx 4f ft :48 B 1/24.
1 – Tio Wil – The rail post is winning at 27% clip, he has high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on 27Apr Prx 4f ft :48.1 B 4/24.
3 – Mach Trial – He is a closer who has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
7 – They Shot Sonny
Race 9
4 – Cant Stop This Man – He has finished in the money in eight out of the last nine races, winning the last three at PARX Racing – The trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing a horse back to race after they won their last race.
7 – Noble Commander – He has finished in the money in two out of the three races at PARX Racing – He has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Apr-26.
8 – Town Jak – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck. He has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 7-1-0).
1 – Irish Riviera – He comes in from Laurel to compete at PARX Racing where he has done well in the past – The rail post is winning at 27% clip, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Wild Caramelo
6 – Geebert
Race 10
1 – Wild Delight – She ran 3rd in her last race and has a good workout on 26Apr Parx 4f ft :48¨ B 2/20.
9 – Ilknur – She ran 3rd in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 has this record days (5 2-0-1) – She should improve while returning to dirt as her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Onthisharvestmoon – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning Jockey.
4 – Paper Mansion – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a Trainer/Jockey in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).
Race 11
6 – S Man – He has finished in the money in six out of the seven races, winning three at PARX Racing, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races when he drops a horse off a win.
3 – Call Fitzroy – He won a race and then finished 3rd vs similar – He does well at PARX Racing and can handle the distance.
2 – Nimble Beast – He finished 4th after coming extremely wide into the stretch earning the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Lucky Hero – He likes the track, and the distance, has a high % winning trainer and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
9 – What’s to Blame
8 – Samaronti
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias
3 – KNIGHT LEGEND – MSW dropper from 80k, track drop from AQ, two bullet works, Kendrick winning at 30%
4 – THE GREAT GAZOO – missed as the favorite, tr John Servis rebounds at 32%, drops in class, PARX 6/0-3-0
1 – ENFORCER – ran better fractions last out despite going from 6 to 6 ½ furlongs, Top PARX #s
5 – THE TALENTED MR U – gets a weight break, also ran better 6.5 vs 6 times last out and could be better in round two off the bench
Race 2 – 7 furlongs, 81 races, 55 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, slight 8+ penalty
4 – FIFTY SHEAS OFGREY – 2nd off the claim for tr Michael Pino, missed as favorite last two
3 – MACLEAN’S LEGACY – was better ATB in his last, other to tie for TLRSP# and his resume says he’ll be the same or better in his second after a layoff
1 – RICHIE GOES GLOBAL – should be 1st based on name alone, but not the biggest fan of 19/1-2,3 record
5 – HACHACHA – is the only of the remaining 3 to show improvement in last
Race 3 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias
4 – IMAGISM – BB – Tom Carley Drop, tr Daniel Velazquez winner 6/14 MSW to MCL, 4/10 1st time MCL, TLRSP#
5 – BELLA MARIA – can’t look past tr Ernesto Padilla-Preciado won 4/9 with 1st time starters, works are OK
1 – ONE THAT GOT AWAY – Eddie C angle, bullet work two back with a maintenance after, just can’t take the rail at 6f despite it bustin a pick 4 last week, 78k horse
3 – LOVELY MELAYRA – comes in from Turfway, 1st off the claim for Steven Krebs, tough call over #s 2,6, but I’ll take the better jockey of the three
Race 4 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias
7 – FAST INTENTIONS – 1st off the claim for tr Jamie Ness, dropping 2 classes, 32% winner dropping 2 and 33% 1st claim and drop off the claim – slight weight break with EP
1 – LUSCIOUS LOLA – much faster fractions last out 6.5f v 6f the previous race – rail at 6f?
6 – ZENSATIONAL DIXIE – TLRSP# and drops in class, last race was better than it looks as 4f and 6f fractions were about 1 second last at 7f vs 6.5f, 4SP# increases
2 – WISHES AND DREAMS – PARX 11/2-1-3, distance 11/3-0-4, slightly better numbers for 1st half mile of last race
Race 5 – 1 1/8 miles, 3 races, 2/3 won off the pace, 1 w2w -PP: two from 4-7, 1 from 8+
2 – FRENCH TOAST – missed as the chalk in his last, tr Juan Guerrero rebounds at 32%, 300k horse, drops in class here too off TLRSP#
6 – MR. TUTTLE – 1st off the claim, tr Michael Pino wins at 20%, Eddie C angle again, bullet then maintenance and then to the track
4 – PETER G. FOX – probably crazy here but… ran better fractions at 1m70y than 6f, jy Adam Bowman +2.42 ROI in routes
1 – GRAZELY – jy/tr Luis Ocasio and Louis Linder, Jr +3.06 ROI together, missed as the favorite in the last, 22% angle for Linder, Jr
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias
5 – FRANK N DUCKY – missed by a neck in his last, 3rd after a layoff, last 3rd race off the bench was the best by far
4 – ONE NINER TANGO – not the biggest fan of horses coming off MCL wins, but TLRSP# and better ATB
6 – WHERESTHEPASSION – same MCL concern here, gets weight break, PARX 5/1-1-1
1 – I’M BLAMING YOU – rail concern at 6f, 100K horse that’s been facing better, jy tr combo of Jeremy Laprida and Ralph Riviezzo ITM 6/8 w/ +9.15 ROI – wow!
Race 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, 64 races, 39 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2+ fair
6 – BREEZY GUST – off since March 7, 12f of fairly fast works since, PARX 12/4-2-2, OK off the bench
1 – KADENS COURAGE – 7lb weight break vs all but 1 other, much better in 2nd half of last outing, high win rate rail
3 – JUMP SHOT – 1st off the claim, tr Haleem Lee winner 5/18 (28%), better 7f final time by about 1 second in last, ITM 6/1-2-2 at distance
7 – OTIS OTIS OTIS – won last with TLRSP# going w2w, much better #s ATB
Race 8 – 6 ½ furlongs, 64 races, 39 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2+ fair
1 – TIO WIL – gets the high win rate rail, 2 works after being claimed, rail winning at 27%
5 – EXCURSION – 1st off the claim for tr Michael Pino, 20% winner, two good works since claim, including bullet in April 27
6 – GET THE W – another 1st off the claim, tr Haleem Lee winner 5/18, always well bet and usually in the mix late
3 – MACH TRIAL – ran better fractions in his last at 6 ½ v 6f last, 2/4f #s were better
Race 9 – 6 ½ furlongs, 64 races, 39 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2+ fair
3 – WILD CARAMELO – BOX – has the top PARX#s by a decent margin, 7 pound break vs many of these with early beast, 22f works since March 1
4 – CANT STOP THIS MAN – ITM 9/3-3-2 at Parx, 8 HQ races in last 9 outings,
7 – NOBLE COMMANDER – has some of the best back class, blew a tire in his last on March 15, one decent work since is the other to carry less weight
8 – TOWN JAK – switches to F Pennington, TLRSP#, claimed, 1st for tr Ronald Dandy, better fractions and pace #s across the board
Race 10 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias
7 – ONTHISHARVESTMOON – been competitive vs tougher, a couple decent works since last race, PARX 5/1-1-1
6 – ET’S MOON MAIDEN – been facing tougher, last race was better than it looks with better running times
1 – WILD DELIGHT – jy/tr combo of Jose Gomez and Robert Reid, jr ITM 5/6 with +0.47 ROI – could be better in 2nd off the bench
4 – PAPER MANSION – tough call over #9, strong work since breaking maiden in F Pennington first ride, he’s on again today
Race 11 – 7 furlongs, 81 races, 55 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, slight 8+ penalty
6 – S MAN – LS – PARX 9/3-2-2, had higher pace# ATB in his last on March 14, maintenance work since, winner 3 of last 4
2 – NIMBLE BEAST – TLRSP#, another Paco Lopez mount, but not a GP shipper, best PARX #s by a little
10 – GOLDENLINEOF – going to take a shot here, 3 SP# increases, a little better in the first ½ mile of his last race
9 – WHAT’S TO BLAME – jockey upgrade to Ruben Silvera, 0-5 at PARX, could be better in classic 3rd off a layoff, better fractions in last
