Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
PARX Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Mischievous Jones – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington and the trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-2).
3 – Margin of Air – He finished 3rd in his last race, has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and a bullet 3F workout on 03May Parx 3f ft :36.1 B 1/9.
7 – Ice Bar – He has finished in the money in three out of his four career races, and he has a high % winning Jockey.
6 – Go Skippy Go – He finished in the money in his last two races and jockey Luis Rivera returns to ride again.
Alternate:
5 – About the Multiple
1 – Fictionalfairytale
Race 2
4 – Sophos – He won his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – We Be There – He has won two out of his last four races and the distance will not be a problem.
1 – Piggybank – The rail post is winning at a 20% clip and that may be just what he needs to get his first win this year.
6 – Mission Oberon – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Can run on top or come from behind.
Race 3
3 – Whatruwaitingfor – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1).
5 – J D’s Vista – She finished 3rd vs similar in the last race, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 has this record (15 6-4-0).
7 – Frame This – She has finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and a High % winning trainer.
6 – Jumpintoaction – She takes a significant drop-in class today; the trainer wins 18% of the time in dirt starts and the trainer has won two out of his three starts in last 14 days.
Alternate:
4 – Starship Charly
Race 4
3 – Superhighway – He led for a mile in his last race and faded, the shorter distance may be a plus to allow him to lead all the way.
6 – Marco Island – He stopped last race in the slop which he does not seem to like, switches to a high % winning jockey, the shorter distance may help, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Causeididitmyway – He ran 4th in his last race a big improvement from his previous race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer wins 26% of the time in the 2nd race off a layoff.
2 – Flight Risk – He drops in class today; the trainer wins 40% of the time when bringing a horse back from 46–90-day layoff and a jockey who in the last 7 has this record (15 6-4-0).
Alternate:
7 – My Man Elvis
5 – Acker
Race 5
5 – Irish Jumper – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Nurturing – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Wendy’s Fine Wine – She is versicle can either lead or close to try and win a race – The trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and she has a good 5F workout on 03May Parx 5f ft 1:00.4 B 3/11.
4 – Oui Madame – She finished 6th in the mud but had won the race before. It seems the mud affected his run, and he should do better today.
Alternate:
6 – Lulinda’s Heart
Race 6
5 – Muttley – He ran 2nd in his last two race at PARX Racing, the last race as the favorite but the trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and he has a Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 6-4-0).
6 – Gogees – He finished 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high% trainer – The trainer wins 28% of the time when going from a Sprint-Route-Sprint and the trainer in the last 14 has this record (7 4-1-1).
3 – Bubba G –He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 8 winners from 9 starters – His breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has some decent workouts.
4 – Great Assumptions – He ran 5th in his debut race after showing speed for most of the race at PARX Racing, drops in class today, and switches to a high % winning jockey –He was heavily Bet in debut.
Alternate:
2 – Union Fleet
Race 7
9 – Irie Empress– She won her last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Show’em Who’s Boss–She Ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 25% clip and the trainer wins 22% of the time in Sprints.
4 – Saratoga Kisses – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Aqueduct and the trainer wins 19% of the time when shipping in.
5 – Golden Tabby – She finished 6th in last race after being erratic in the stretch; she bled -She has a high % winning Jockey who in the last 7 has this record (15 6-4-0), her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Should improve with Lasix added.
Alternate:
7 – Titanic Rose
Race 8
6 – Vanquisher – She won her last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1).
3 – Vics Cool Cat – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning Jockey.
2 – Baci – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and a trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
4 – Adhwaa – She won her last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer whose horses wins 27% of the time after entering a horse that won a claiming race – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (7 4-1-1).
Alternate:
8 – Spun d’Etat
Race 9
6 – Loose Ends – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a trainer /Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0) and has a good 4F workout on 30Apr Fai 4f ft :49.4 B 4/41.
5 – Three Comma Glenn – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 32% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again – He has a bullet 4F workout on 03May Parx 4f ft :47© H 1/26.
4 – Secret Alliance – He has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
2 – Kenner– He has a high % winning trainer and Jockey, should improve at the longer distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
7 – Lucky Running Cat
Race 10
6 – Cartouche– She won her last race, and the trainer wins 20% of the time when he drops a horse off a win.
1 – Tiz Gracie – She ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 25% clip, she has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-1).
5 – Poor No More – She has finished in the money five out of the last six races finishing 2nd in her last race. She will be closing to try and catch the leaders.
2 – Lula’s Roadrunner – The trainer wins 25% of the time when going Sprint-Route-Sprint and May improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
8 – Sense a Million
Race 11
7 – Conquistador – He has won his last two races now going for a hat trick – He has a High % winning trainer and Jockey.
8 – Easy Day – He drops in class today and has a trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
4 – R Goodtime Charlie – He finished 2nd in his last race as the favorite but the trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
6 – Fran’s Worrier – He tried Laurel without success and now returns to PARX Racing where he has done well in the past winning eight out of nineteen starts.
Alternate:
1 – Street Tail
3 – Lawn Boy
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile, 50 Races, 31 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: 7-1 outside in bias, 8+ penalty
4 – MISCHIEVOUS JONES – better SP# every race of 5, similar fractions at 1m70y as 6f, a decent maintenance work since last
3 – MARGIN OF AIR – another that’s improved SP# in every start, 6 in a row, better times first ½ mile in last
7 – ICE BAR – making drop from MSW, but did run unsuccessfully in MCKL 16 1st two starts, last race fractions were much faster in 2nd half of the race, 2nd time Lasix 32% for trainer John Servis
6 – GO SKIPPY GO – has the best LP#s and was a little better for the 1st quarter in last, trainer Carl Jones must have like what he saw as he’s moving up from MCL 10K t0 25K
Race 2 – 1 Mile 70 yards, 125 races, 83 won by speed, 28 w2w – PP: rail bias, inside 2/3 bias, fair 4+
5 – WE BE THERE – could get on the lead and not give it up, if he’s pilot or co-pilot at ½, then he’ll be tough to beat
4 – SOPHOS – is coming off a career tying best race in first off the bench, while SP# was peak, race internals still have room to get better here
6 – MISSION OBERON – SAT logic?, PIGGYBANK beat GREEN GROWTH both times and MISSION OBERON beat PIGGYBANK, so MISSION OBERON beats them both?
1 – PIGGYBANK –
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs, 87 races, 60 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: 1-7 fair, 8+ penalty
3 – WHATRUWAITINGFOR – last race looks good on paper, but internals say it was even better than it looks with faster fractions at 1m70y than 7f, , big speed # bump, worried about a bounce
7 – FRAME THIS – stretching out from 7f, LP has gotten stronger in last 4 outings, extra f and 70 yards could be the difference
5 – J D’S VISTA – track from Tampa? Better be as it took 15 races to break maiden but ITM 16/1-1-6, pedestrian work at Parx
8 – PEARLBDANCING – has a distinct EP advantage, question is can she hold it in 1st race past 6f, weight break could make it a little easier to hold in there late
Race 4 – 1 Mile, 50 Races, 31 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: 7-1 outside in bias, 8+ penalty
3 – SUPERHIGHWAY – 1st off the claim for trainer Jaime Bravo-Estrada – only 8% winner, so what’s going on? Look at 4f workout in 48.2, faster than any of his last 10 in-race times. Expecting a much improved horse here if he didn’t leave in it on the track in practice.
2 – FLIGHT RISK – has by far the best PARX back class, last race showed signs of improvement, got the sense he is sitting on a big one today
8 – RISQUE REBEL – is another to show more in his last run, cut fractions considerably and stayed interested until the end, jockey change to Dexter Haddock, winner? Probably not, but ITM 4/6 w/trainer Josue Arce with 3.60 ROI, fattens up exotics
9 – CAUSEIDIDITMYWAY – claimed at Del Mar for 20k last August, 1st run was in Jan for CLM 25k, ran for 5k claiming in last, a return to southern Cali form and this is an EZ one, got a feeling they are hoping he gets claimed though, was BTN FAV and trainer Juan Guerrero rebounds at 33%.
Race 5 – 1 Mile, 50 Races, 31 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: 7-1 outside in bias, 8+ penalty
1 – NURTURING – likely favorite that dropping in class, faded badly in last two trying to keep up with fractions she’s not likely to see today, she does look like a bounce back candidate and would benefit from a ½ in 48 or more
5 – IRISH JUMPER – TPLRS#, distance 3/0-1-2, will be hoping for 1 to go too fast early and set up the close, 3SP# increases in a row
2 – WENDY’S FINE WINE – this one should be better in her 3rd start after a layoff, maybe not a lot, but a quick 5f work on May 3rd suggests she’ll be on her game here.
6 – LULINDA’S HEART – has some of the best LP#s and could factor in the back end of exotics
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 125 races, 83 won by speed, 40 w2w – PP: 8 from rail, inside out bias 2+
5 – MUTTLEY – ran better numbers at 6.5 furlongs than 6f the previous start, 1st off the claim and moving up in class
6 – GOGEES – track drop from Keeneland, claimed MCL 20K, is this moving up/down in class? Weight break, should be close to the pace and better in 2nd off the bench
2 – UNION FLEET – comes in from Laurel, another track dropper, had all sorts of issues in last, let’s see if he runs a cleaner race. Jy Jorge Ruiz ITM7/3-2-1 at Parx, tr Cathal Lynch 27/8-6-3
3 – BUBBA G – 1st time starter and some decent works
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 68 Races, 41 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Big Rail Bias, 2+ fair
5 – GOLDEN TABBY – 1st Lasix after running in a 200k ngrdstks, strong front run in debut, 1 for 1 at Parx
9 – IRIE EMPRESS – TLRSP# in maiden win, PARX 6/1-4-0, better times at 7f vs 6f
4 – SARATOGA KISSES – track drop from Aqueduct, Paco Lopez, ITM 6/1-2-2 fast track
3 – CICI UNIFIED – been facing tougher, if she can run back to debut, showed signs of waking up in last
Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 51 Races, 39 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: Outside in bias
3 – VICS COOL CAT – TLRSP# and should be better in round 2 off the bench
6 – VANQUISHER – won last by 8 1/2, big races usually followed by another, PARX 5/2-3-0, weight break
2 – BACI – ships in from Laurel for tr Jamie Ness, teams up w/ jy Jaime Rodriguez, winner 20/51 together for +0.63 ROI
7 – STILL ALIVE – resume says she can take a decent step up in her 3rd off the bench and drops in class, winner 2/3 at the distance, 5/13 at PARX and gets a weight break
Race 9 – 1 Mile, 50 Races, 31 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: 7-1 outside in bias, 8+ penalty
5 – THREE COMMA GLENN – was 30 cent favorite in last, was 2nd career start, sometime newbies come out strong, bounce in round 2, and then rebound in race 3
4- SECRET ALLIANCE – drops from a 125K NGDSTK at Laurel, but previous was MSW win at Parx, 3 SP# increases
6 – LOOSE ENDS – missed by a nose in last, topping the top choice, better fractions in last by more than a second
2 – KENNER – last race was ugly, expecting him to pop back into form, if you don’t go with number 7
Race 10 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 68 Races, 41 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Big Rail Bias, 2+ fair
6 – CARTOUCHE – is a ½ length from winning 4/5, distance 2/0-1-1, tr Mario Dominguez and jy Angel Castilo winners of 3/7 together with +0.91 ROI
1 – TIZ GRACIE – TLRSP#, rides the 25% winning rail, jy Frankie Pennington and Tr Scott Lake winners 4/10 ITM 9/10 +ROI of +0.66
2 – LULA’S ROADRUNNER – maybe didn’t like the slop in last and is a light switch horse on/off, has some of the top back class
5 – POOR NO MORE – 6 SP# increases, better 2/4f #s in last, PARX 6/1-2-1
Race 11 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 51 Races, 39 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: Outside in bias
7 – CONQUISTADOR – won 2 in a row, 4SP# increases, tr Louis Linder, Jr hits at 23% in clm repeaters
6 – FRAN’S WORRIER – winner 8/19 at PARX, weight break, ITM 9/13 at the distance, could be better in round two after a layoff
4 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – better fractions in 1st half mile of his last race, 1 for 1 at the distance
10 – KEEPING THE PEACE – ran faster times last out, gets a weight break today and has some EP and 3SP# increases
