Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Tom and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Belmont Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1 – 1 – Sweet Maeve – toss turf race, didn’t like it at all. Better in dirt race running 5th in first start after tossing head in the gate. Will improve
Race 2 – 3 – She’s The One – winner of 2 in a row, ran well in all her races, favorite one to beat
Race 3 – 8 – Pineapple Man – showed speed in the 2 races, got last out, change of jockey to Luis Saez and he can hold this one together for a wire to wire win
Race 4 – 1 – Biondi – showed speed in last, is improving from start 1 to start 2, Luis Saez is going to have a good day?
Race 5 – 4 – Rheaume – nice late run to win maiden last out (first start) beat Out of Sight who won next out and in this race. Michael Dickinson trainee should get the job done again
Race 6 – 4 – Bank Sting – Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 – 3 – Sterling Silver – tired open company last 2 one in the Ashland at Keeneland won by Nest. Drops back to state-breds has not lost yet
Race 8 – 5 – Kotknee – faced open in last after winning 3 in a row, not much but it was the AW at Turfway, back to dirt and has won at distance
Race 9 – 7 – Somelikeithotbrown – speed, has done well on the turf vs state-breds, won graded stakes races, Maker and Jose Oritz should win here but a pretty good field
Race 10 – 12 – Crosstalk – first effort showed speed and then back up, second effort a good 2nd on the turf showing some ability but no match for the winner. Steps up today at 7F
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – Race 3 – 1 Mile, 20 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2/3 outperform, 4-7 win less than they should and 8+ has majorly outperformed5 – ROYAL CURRENCY – been close in 4 of 5 start with 2nds, TLRSP# but try to beat at 2/5
1 – SWEET MAEVE – rides the high win rate rail after better ATB pace numbers in second career start following a long layoff
4 – BERN ROSEY BERN – first time starter without a lot to beat – hope he likes to come from off the pace with Trevor McCaethy riding
3 – SISTER LINDA – trying route for the 1st time, tr Horacia De Paz winner 8/24 and gets 1st Lasix, weight break
Race 2 – 1 Mile Turf, 9 races, 6 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: everything except 4-7 has underperformed
6 – CLASSIC LADY – has never finish out of the money in 6 at BP been off since December but is a nose from winning last two at Belmont following breaks
3 – SHE’S THE ONE – ain’t much from being undefeated in 5, just a paid of 2nd by a head in both – last race was on the slow side so she didn’t have to work hard and should have plenty of juice in round 2 off the sideline
1 – RUNAWAY RUMOUR – drops from a G2 and likes BP with 6/3-1-1, tr Jorge Abreu looking for 1st win
5 – POP THE BUBBLY – adding a price here, can get off to a good start is a good fit for jy Kendrick Carmouche and is coming off a win, 1st time off the claim for trainer Horacio De Paz, who is winning at 28% so far
Race 3 – 1 Mile, 20 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2/3 outperform, 4-7 win less than they should and 8+ has majorly outperformed
2 – MAJOR SPIN – LS – got the maiden win in race #2, going w2w tying for TLRSP#, 2/4 #s were slightly better with same fractions at 1 mile in slop as 6f fast, but huge LP upgrade
1 – AGGREGATION – is also coming off maiden score in 2nd try, much better in early part of the race with better pace #s, Jy Manny France & triner Chad Brown hitting at 43% in 55 races, and still have a small +ROI
4 – THRILL OF IT – is the other to tie for TLRSP#, took 5 cracks to get maiden win but was in 1st route, 12 f works since
3 – FULL MOON FEVER – a consistent type with high floor low ceiling, probably not going to win, but his average effort gives him a good shot to be ITM
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 11 races, 7 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 a little bonus, 4-7 underperform and 8+ better than 2/3
4 – NIKOSTRATOS – been close in both of his races both at 1 mile, gets 1st Lasix which could be the difference here
7 – MR. CONNECTICUT – has some of the best LP#s and should be a good fit for jy Trevor McCarthy
3 – BERNARDINO – flips to jockey Joel Rosario, been off since late November, has been working well with 34f of works since March 23rd, should be ready
1 – BIONDI – should be on the gas from go, upgrades to Luis Saez and sometimes 2nd Lasix is the trick for horses
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Mile Turf, 8 races, 100% off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: absolute outside in bias so far
4 – RHEAUME – won her debut with a steady advance ran between horses, which can be difficult for 1st timers, gets Lasix here
9 – NEW GINYA – also won debut with a steady move from 9th of 12 at the start. Gets 1st time Lasix too, tr Christophe Clement rocking so far at 29%
8 – OUT OF SIGHT – never off the board in 4/1-2-1 at BP, Jose Ortiz rides for 3rd in a ow, won last with big time improvement ATB, maybe better in 3rd off the break
6 – KANNON FIRE – regressed in little in race #2, sometimes horse bounce back in their 3rd races
Race 6 – 1 Mile, 20 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2/3 outperform, 4-7 win less than they should and 8+ has majorly outperformed
4 – BANK STING – is undefeated in 3 on a fast track, winner 3 of 4 at the distance, lone miss was on the mud in last – resume says expect improvement in r2 off the bench
1 – SECRET LOVE – gets the 26% winning rail, been strong at BP 3/2-1-0, better EP and LP#s – Z pattern
7 – MAKE MISCHIEF – steps down from a G2 race, last race was better in the 1st half, 2 back won by 10 lengths
2 – MAIDEN BEAUTY – loves the distance with 7 wins in 17 races, just 2 wins in 22 elsewhere, usually runs pretty well following some rest
Race 7 – 7 Furlongs, 15 races, 13 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2/3 underperform, slight bonus 4-7, 8+ hasn’t won yet
4 – ADVERSITY – TLRSP#, start means everything, if he is on/near the lead at the half, would be hard to pass with the lead in the stretch
2 – YO CUZ – going to be a big favorite, stumbled at start of last, breaking a 3 race win streak and none we all that close, won both at the distance
5 – CAPTAINSDAUGHTER – goes back to dirt where she is ITM 6/1-3-2, closer that goes against the bias but should have plenty of pace to chase, cleans up exotics
3 – STERLING SILVER – goes back to Trevor McCarthy who won in first two race, bombed in last two, but has 17f works since the start of May,
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, 15 races, 13 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2/3 underperform, slight bonus 4-7, 8+ hasn’t won yet
2 – BEST IDEA – missed by a head in last with better times at 4/6f at 1 1/16 miles vs 7f in previous start
5 – ROTKNEE – struggled in Turfway Park all-weather in last, goes back to dirt and has blasted 4 bullet workouts since that race
9 – WHO HOO THATS ME – was much better ATB in his 3 yo debut as the fav, trainer Jorge Abreu scores at 24% next time out, resume says he should be about the same here
4 – TIN PAN ALLEY – got the maiden win in 2nd try as 3/5 favorite, Franco and Brown combo again, won 5 of last 6 together
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 11 races, 7 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 a little bonus, 4-7 underperform and 8+ better than 2/3
7 – SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN – been a beast at the distance 8/4-4-0, including a win in BPs inner turf course
3 – THERAPIST – Knock, knocking on the distance door, 9/0-3-5, four consecutive SP# increases and could continue the trend in 3rd off the bench
5 – CROSS BORDER – consistently puts up some of the best numbers for this group, just seems to fall short – but at his best can make EZ work off all but top choice
8 – STEP DANCER – trainer Tagg Barclay doesn’t enter many at this level, but hits at 27% when he does, vs 14% overall
Race 10 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 7 races, 100% off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: inside 3 just 1 win, 4-7 best, 8+ perform as expected
11 – QUEEN OF LIES – finished 2nd in last despite all sort of in-race issues, outside post should help her avoid trouble today
3 – BAVARIAN CRÈME – 7f fractions in last were the same as 6f number in previous race, looking for her to improve for the 4th race in a row
12 – CROSSTALK – upgrade to jockey Jose Ortiz, was BTN FAV in last, trainer David Duggan rebounds at 27% with ROI of +1.89
13 – DREAM CENTRAL – scratches into this spot, improved pace#s from start to finish in her last, maybe better in round 2 off the sideline
