Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Belmont Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Monmouth Park Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Lone Star Park
Belmont Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollwood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Ranting – She ran 6th in her last race after off slow and being bumped during the race – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Jun-29.
5 – Snowy Evening– She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass.
1 – Dream On Cara -She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and suits today’s sprint distance.
4 – Kingsley Creek – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass.
Alternate:
6 – Benevolently
3 – Our Rosie Diamonds
Race 2
4 – Masked Marauder – He has finished in the money in five out of his last six races, winning one of the starts, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a trainer / jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-0).
3 – Bronx Bomber – He ran 2nd in his last race at Belmont Park and has the highest last race speed rating.
2 – Foolish Ghost – He ran last in his last race and then took a 6-month break and has been working out steadily for this race – He has a high % winning trainer and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Big Engine – He likes Belmont Park finishing in the money in 71% of the time and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – Tapizearance
Race 3
3 – Suppressor – He ran 4th in his last race only losing by a length, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Inspiration Point – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race at Belmont Park, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and a trainer who wins 23% of the time with a horse he claimed starts for the 2nd time with the trainer.
6 – Fazaro – He ran 2nd in last race at Belmont Park and the trainer won the last time he took a horse up 2+ classes.
5 – Empire Ridge – Returning to the dirt should help and his early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
4 – Sharpoon
1 – Irie Spice
Race 4
3 – Cousteau – He won his last race at Belmont Park, drops in class today and he has a trainer / jockey combo who has this record in last 14 days (5 2-1-1).
4 – O’Trouble – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race at Belmont Park, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5- Majestic Tiger – He has finished in the money in four of his last five races, winning one of the starts and may improve with blinkers added today.
1 – Great Workout – The rail post is winning at a 24% clip, he should improve while returning to the dirt, switches to a high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and trainer Linda Rice wins 18% of the time in the 1st after claim.
Alternate:
2 – Spectatorless
6 – Forever Wicked
Race 5
5 – Trinity Titoli – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Belmont Park, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Game Theory – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Belmont Park and may improve at the shorter distance.
1 – Simple Sugar –She Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at 20% clip and the trainer wins 27% of the time with a horse he takes from a route to a sprint.
7 – Love That Face – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a trainer who wins 25% of the time in claiming races.
Alternate:
6 – Gagliano
4 – Handle the Truth
Race 6
5 – Ring of Fire – He won three races in his last five starts, winning his last race at Belmont Park and has a trainer / jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-0).
3 – Ranger Fox – He switches to a high % winning jockey, returning to turf should help, his trainer has this record in last 14 days (5 2-1-0) and blinkers are added today.
4 – Subsidize – He is cutting back to 6-furlongs the distance he last won at and has a maintenance workout.
6 – Atras – He won last race at Keenland, switches to a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a good 4F workout on Jun-26.
Alternate:
7 – Bustin Shout
1 – Alado
Race 7
3 – Artemus Citylimits – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but the trainer wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again – He is always in the mix finishing in the money in the last ten races and has a good 4F workout on Jun-30.
1 – Comedy Town – He won last race his last race at Pimlico and likes the turf.
9 – Casanova Kitten – He has won two races in a row going for a hat trick, he has the highest last race speed rating and a good workout on June 26th.
6 – Maxwell Esquire – He likes Belmont Park, has a high % winning jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
4 – Fauci
Race 8
1 – Demandsrespect – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at 24% clip, she has a trainer / jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1) and a good 4F workout Jun-25.
5 – Precursory – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout onJun-26.
4 – Hop Picker – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and high % winning Jockey Jose Ortiz is in the irons.
3 – Don’t Overlook Me – She has high % winning trainer Todd Pletcher, is ridden by Flavien Prat and has a good workout on June 27th.
Alternate:
6 – Quotabelle
2 – Dolce Sera
Race 9
2 – Annapolis – He ran 2nd in his last race at PENN National, drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey – He has the highest last race speed, and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Chanceux – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and likes the turf.
5 – Boston Tea Party – He won his debut race at Belmont Park, has a trainer who wins 25% of Non-Graded Stakes races and the trainer in the last 14 days has won two out of three races.
7 – Double Clutch – He won his last race at Keenland and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Coinage
6 – Smokin’ T
Race 10
3 – Hope for the Best – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Dorothy’s the Boss – She has the highest last race speed rating; her best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and may improve with blinkers added today.
8 – Laughter– She drops in class today, the trainer who wins 40% of the time when moving a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-28.
6 – Unkoalafied – She has a good 4F workout on Jun-30.
Alternate:
9 – Rent Control
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 1 race won by speed from posts 2/3
2 – RANTING – hate to take the chalk here, but has a race and some decent works afterwards
5 – SNOWY EVENING – Irad and Pletcher, OK works getting ready
6 – BENEVOLENTLY – decent works, Luis Saez seems to coax babies as well as any, trainer Mark Henning 0-39 so far
4 – KINGSLEY CREEK – same as most in the field, OK works, Jose Ortiz 2/5 w/ Tr John Kimmel 3.26 ROI but Kimmel 0-31 grass debut
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 26 races, 18 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: rail underperforms by half, 2/3 fair, 4-7 slight penalty, 8+ bonus
3 – BRONX BOMBER – improved ATB in last and should have a decent lead out of the turn, just needs to hold on
4 – MASKED MARAUDER – is OK at the distance 5/1-1-2, clearly better in the 1st half mile of his last race
2 – FOOLISH GHOST – has plenty of early juice but tends to fade, if he can maintain until the stretch, a chance to win
5 – BIG ENGINE
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs, 31 races, 24 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: strong rail, inside 3 bias, no winners 8+
4 – SHARPOON – LS – might be deceptively fast, wanted to run in last, comment says hard held, I think they let her loose today and see what happens
2 – INSPIRATION POINT – has the peak #s in the field, should be on the pace and better in 2nd start after a short layoff
3 – SUPPRESSOR – even money ML, you just can’t take those at this level at top pick, especially since he’s burned $$$ as the favorite in three straight
5 – EMPIRE RIDGE – has some back speed, not sure if it’s enough to get to the front, 1st off the claim for tr Michael Maker, mediocre 16% angle
Race 4 – 1 Mile, 48 races, 37 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: rail bias, inside out 2+
2 – SPECTATORLESS – should get to the front without needing to run crazy fractions, his Belmont #s stack up and has the best #s at the distance
3 – COUSTEAU – drops in class off of a win at ALW 50K, does that make sense? Not to me, tr Rob Altras 1/7 dropping off the win
4 – O’TROUBLE – been close at Belmont 5/0-1-3 and distance 2/0-0-2, tends to hang late and probably needs to run down a class or two to get confidence back
5 – MAJESTIC TIGER – is hoping for a fast pace, probably not going to get it, but if the first three go out in a hurry, he’ll collect at least 2 of them with a late run
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs, 31 races, 24 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: strong rail, inside 3 bias, no winners 8+
5 – TRINITY TITOLI – has the biggest pace edge of any horse through the first half of the card, should be able to run comfortable on the lead
7 – LOVE THAT FACE – if not, this is the most likely to pilot the race if the 5 falters, was a little sharper last out and won the last time in the 3rd race in a 3 race cylce
1 – SIMPLE SUGAR – probably sits off the pace and tries to close, that’s Trevor’s best riding style IMO as he’s very good having horse late
2 – GAME THEORY – has been pressing forward in his last three starts with better results, but her fractions and pace # suggest she’ll need to work too hard to keep up
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs Turf, 15 races, 8 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 2/3 perform at about 60% of what they should, 4-7 has most of the action, 8+ almost fair
5 – RING OF FIRE – has the best EP/LP combo in the field, Belmont 3/2-1-0, elsewhere 1 win in eight races, both wins at 6f
3 – RANGER FOX – is a nose and a neck away from winning 3 of 4 with Joel Rosario as the jockey, top turf pedigree in the race
6 – ATRAS – you just have to believe tr Brad Cox has this horse in this race for a good reason
7 – BUSTIN SHOUT – could get overlooked, but has the highest ceiling in the race but also has an occasional clunker – tough call over #4
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs Inner Turf, 27 Races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: none from rail, almost fair 2/3, 4-7 small bonus, 8+ penalty
3 – ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS – raced at the distance/surface 3 times in last 10, two 2nds and a 3rd by a neck, will be close at the end
2 – BALLYDOOLEY – has an EP edge over the rest, should be on the lead out of the turn, won the last 2 times came off the bench
6 – MAXWELL ESQUIRE -should be at/near his peak in the third start off the break, regressed in his last, will need to rebound here and hasn’t made it 3 races in a row without a break in more than a year
9 – CASANOVA KITTEN – ran the TLRSP# back in April, been working very well at Belmont Park getting ready to return
Race 8 – 1 Mile, 48 races, 37 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: rail bias, inside out 2+
6 – QUOTABELLE – has a decent EP advantage over the rest, should have more stamina in Race #2
5 – PRECURSORY – TLRSP# with much better LP in her second career start and a couple of decent works since her last
1 – DEMANDSRESPECT – rides the high win rate rail, has some of the most late punch in the field, Eddie C angle
4 – HOP PICKER – tough pick over the 3, but has been working insanely well getting ready to come back to work
Race 9 – 1 Mile Turf, 20 races, 50/50, 5 w2w – PP: fair on the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4+ discount
2 – ANNAPOLIS – drops in class with the TLRSP# by decent margin, record says he’ll be better in 2nd off the bench
5 – BOSTON TEA PARTY – debut was the top EP and top LP for the field, if he can get to the lead, he has the legs to keep on, going long for the first time is the question
6 – SMOKIN’ T – improved early and late in his last with better fractions, 2 strong works since his last race
3 – READY TO PURRFORM – hard call over the 1, but the 1 is speed and tends to fade, the this one will be coming late
1 – CHANCEUX
Race 10 – 6 Furlongs Inner Turf, 27 Races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: none from rail, almost fair 2/3, 4-7 small bonus, 8+ penalty
3 – HOPE FOR THE BEST – 1st time starter for Christophe Clement, works are OK but all the others have had a chance to win and haven’t
6 – UNKOALAFIED – tried for the lead last out, and has some of the best EP#s in the field, expecting Kendrick to try for the lead again
8 – LAUGHTER – only true MSW dropper in the field, gets 1st Lasix , been working very well getting ready
9 – RENT CONTROL
