Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Belmont Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Penn National Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park
Belmont Park Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Let Her Inspire – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race receiving a speed rating that makes her a threat and she has a trainer who wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Wicked Lady – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, cutting back to a sprint will help and she has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-4-3).
2 – Truancy – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-11.
4 – Sweet Mystery – She is a first-time starter whose dam has 3 winners from 5 starters, and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-06.
Alternate:
5 – Boss of All
3 – Mike’s Little Diva
Race 2
6 – Braciole– He ran 2nd in his last race, switches to a high % jockey that in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-4-3) and a trainer who wins 18% of the time in the first race after claim.
2 – Red Revolution– He ran 3rd in his last race only losing by a neck, and the trainer wins 23% of the time when bringing a horse back who has had a 46–90-day break.
1 – Top of the Mint – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race receiving the highest last race speed rating and the rail post is winning at 24% clip.
3 – Eagle in Love – He drops in class, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who has in the last 7 days has this record (20 5-1-2).
Alternate:
5 – Bold Victory
4 – Emperor’s Cause
Race 3
2 – Dangerous Edge – He ran 2nd in his last race receiving the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
4 – Convertible Freeze – He has won two out of his last three races, finishing 3rd in his last race and he has a jockey that in the last 7 days has this record (20 5-1-2).
7 – Dontbelate – He has finished in the money in four out of five career races, winning the last race.
5 – Holdtheflight – He comes in from PARX Racing to try Belmont Park, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Jumpster
3 – Spectatorless
Race 4
4 – Just a Nyquist – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who has this record in last 14 days (20 5-1-2).
5 – Quiet Type – Her jockey in last 7 days has finished in the money in thirteen out of twenty-four starts, winning six and has a decent 4F workout on 10Jun.
1- Valentia Island – The rail post is winning at 32% clip, drops in class today, she a trainer who wins 21% of the time when going from Maiden to Maiden Claiming race and a bullet 3F workout on Jun-11.
11- Oak Loves a Fight- She switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
15 – Roz – She ran 2nd in her last race and trying grass for the first time – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
14 – Frosty Invasion – She drops in class today and is trying grass for the second time.
Race 5
8 – Microphone – He ran 5th at 1-1/16 and should improve at the shorter distance – He has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey, has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Ghost Giant – He likes the track finishing in the money 72% of the time winning 27% of the starts and likes the track finishing in the money in eight out of eleven starts, winning three.
2 – Dancing Buck –He finished 5th in his last race only beaten a length, switches to a high % winning jockey and a trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
10 – Dust Devil – He has finished in the money in his last three races and has a decent workout on June 11th.
Alternate:
5 – Shiraz
1 – Bay Street Money
Race 6
5 – Masked Marauder – He has finished in the money in his last five races, winning one of the races, switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).
3 – Saint Selby – He has won two out of four career races, has a high % winning trainer, should improve while returning to dirt and the shorter distance will help.
4 – Big Bobby – He either ran second or third in his first six races and then finished 5th after trouble in his last race.
1 – Our Man Mike – He is a deep closer who likes the distance finishing in the money in five out of six starts at this distance, winning one and has a trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-2).
Alternate:
1A – Amundson
6 – Jemography
Race 7
8 – Amount – He has won three races in a row, the last race at Belmont Park and has a jockey who has this record in last 7 days (24 6-4-3).
2 – Perceived – He finished 6th in his last race at 1-1/16 and drops back to 1-mile which he likes winning four out of nine races and drops in class today.
1 – Hammerin Aamer – He has finished in the money in his last seven races, winning four of the races, the rail post is winning at 24% clip, and he has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 5F workout (Jun-10).
6 – No Salt – He won two races in a row and then tried turf and ran a disappointing race and now should improve while returning to dirt – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 30% of the time when his entry goes from turf to dirt.
Alternate:
3 – Kershaw
7 – Regal Quality
Race 8
7 – Canisy – She won her debut race at Belmont Park on the turf at today’s distance and has a high %winning trainer.
1 – Diamond Hands – She has finished in the money in all four of her career races, winning one of the starts, the rail post is winning at 32% clip, and she drops in class today.
3 – Bahamian Club – She won her debut race at Tampa Bay Downs, was well bet in that debut, and has a jockey and a trainer in the last 14 days who has this record (9 3-2-0).
9 – Spicer – She tried the Edgewood-G2 race at Churchill Downs without very much success, has a high % winning trainer and drops in class today.
Alternate:
7 – Canisy
5 – Linda’s Gift
Race 9
7 – Supply Chain – She drops in class today, switches to a high % jockey and trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-2-0).
9 – Juulstone – She drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
8 – Cable Channel – She has a high % winning jockey, and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Cajun Commander– She finished 3rd vs similar and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Ghostmon
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 20 races, 14 won by speed, 6 w2w – PP: rail 1 winner, 2-7 fair, discount 8+
6 – LET HER INSPIRE U – speed figures are way higher than the other 2 with experience, gets 1st lasix with EP, one of the others will likely need to do something special to beat her
1 – WICKED LADY – was well bet in her two starts, rides the unlucky rail, some decent works getting ready for return after going to the sidelines on Dec 9
4 – SWEET MYSTERY – has the best workouts of the first-time starters, IMO
2 – TRUANCY – works are a little better than the 3 and take the $50k horse and Dylan Davis over Jacqueline Davis
Race 2 – 1 Mile, 38 races, 32 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: inside out bias with strong rail bias
1 – TOP OF THE MINT – can’t ignore the tremendous upgrade to 2/4f pace numbers in last, could be better in 2nd off a layoff – top EP#
5 – BOLD VICTORY – dropping in class, get Kendrick back, last time he rode won maiden by 5 ½ lengths
6 – BRACIOLE – three of four races would be good enough to win this, 1st off the claim for tr Orlando Noda, 19% winner
2 – RED REVOLUTION – got off to a horrible start in his last, rallied like RICH STRIKE, three maintenance works since
Race 3 – 1 Mile, 38 races, 32 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: inside out bias with strong rail bias
7 – DONTBELATE – track should be fast, he’s 3/2-0-1 on a fast track, won his only trip on Belmont Dirt w2w in last
1 – JUMPSTER – jy Joel Rosario and tr Gary Sciacca teamed up 4 times, 3 wins and +6.74 ROI, one to dropping from 80K allowance
2 – DANGEROUS EDGE – making 2nd start off the claim for tr Rob Atras, 31% winning angle, was better ATB for Atras in the last race
4 – CONVERTIBLE FREEZE – is the other 80k allowance dropper, beat top pick two back, three works since last race, distance 3/2-0-1
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 16 races, 11 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: strong inside out bias
1 – VALENTIA ISLAND – LS – MSW dropper with late legs, get the high win rate rail and has a bullet work on June 10
11 – OAK LOVES A FIGHT – another of the few MSW droppers, last race was better than it looks on paper with better fractions
13 – JANNIE MAE – last of the MSW droppers, getting 1st Lasix for 3 yo debut, 26f of decent works since May 1
4 – JUST A NYQUIST – TLRSP, just missed at this level by ¾ on a yielding track, maybe firm footing is the difference today
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 15 races, 10 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1-3 underperform, 4+ a little bonus
7 – SUPPLY AND DEMAND – consistently runs some of best LP#s, was better in the EP last out, record says expect major improvement in 2nd off the break
2 – DANCING BUCK – ran better fractions in his last and is making his 3rd start after a layoff, a 23% angle for trainer Michelle Nevin
8 – MICROPHONE – Chad Brown/Flavien Pratt, winning at 31% together, although Flavien has cooled down a little, been the betting favor in all 3 starts, only winning debut
4 – GHOST GIANT – hard choice with the 5 – but been running and showed major LP improvement in last race, SHIRAZ has been off since November and might need 1
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 47 races, 36 won by speed, 25 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 4-7 underperform, little bonus 8+
3 – SAINT SELBY – has a considerable EP Advantage at a distance where nearly 50% go W2w
1A – AMUNDSON – it doesn’t look like it with his running style, but he has some of the best EP#s in the field, some really strong works since last race
4 – BIG BOBBY – likes Belmont 3/2-1-0 and the distance 2/0-2-0, tends to run well off the bench
5 – MASKED MARAUDER – been close at the end of his last five starts and gets and upgrade to Luis Saez
Race 7 – 1 Mile, 38 races, 32 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: inside out bias with strong rail bias
8 – AMOUNT – won three in a row and upped his last LP to his top number last out, is an all or nothing horse 7/4-0-0, best at the distance 3/2-0-0
4 – NO BURN – TLRSP# – loves Belmont 4/3-0-0 and Distance 6/4-0-0, really strong first ½ mile last out
6 – NO SALT – flipping back to dirt after running on turf last out, tr Michael Micelli hits at 30% on the T2D angle, 2x his normal win rate
1A – TIERGAN – getting two for 1
1 – HAMMERIN AAMER
Race 8 – – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 16 races, 11 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: strong inside out bias
1 – DIAMOND HANDS – dropping from 100K non graded stakes, finished 2nd to BC winner Pizza Bianca
7 – CANISY – won debut on Belmont Widerner Turf with powerful late move 20f of works since
9 – SPICER – ran in graded stakes last two, bombed in last vs strong company, however, smoked in the EP and should not have to chase anywhere near as fast a race, pacesetter
4 – CAIRONI – tough call over #3, but both are closers, getting 1st L and been running better numbers at Belmont compared to debut at TB
Race 9 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 15 races, 10 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1-3 underperform, 4+ a little bonus
7 – SUPPLY CHAIN – dropping in class, first time available for claim, 39% winner for tr Chad Brown, CB wins at 50% with Manny Franco
9 – JUULSTONE – was much better in his last start, BTN fav, tr Michael Maker rebounds at 22%, should be better in 3rd off the bench
10 – SCOTTO – gonna try turf for the first time, has plenty of late kick, TLRPSP#
8 – CABLE CHANNEL – another BTN favorite that should move forward in his second start after a layoff
