Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Rich discusses…
Horse Racing Picks
Belmont Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Canterbury Park
Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks and Commentary – UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES
Rich’s Ranks and updated Hot Dog/Prime Rib Pick 4s
OFF THE TURF TODAY
Race 1 – 1 ¼ Miles Inner Turf – no races
4 – MYRISKYAFFAIR – is trying grass for the 2nd time. She ran better 6f fractions in her last at 1 3/16 miles on turf than she did in her AW debut two back at 1 mile 70 yards
1 – REIGN OF LOVE – making her second career start and has some decent works between races
6 – OFFICE ETIQUETTE – might challenge for the lead and catch a moderate pace. Might be the path to hitting the board at a price.
5 – CHARGING LADY – was well bet in her debut at Keeneland, gets top jockey Irad Ortiz
Race 2 – 6 furlongs, 18 races, 13 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 and 8+ bias, 4-7 struggle
1 – MOTION TO STRIKE – LS – coming off the MCL win, ran might tighter times, has a quick workout between race and might step forward in third off the sidelines.
2 – GASLIGHT – has been off for a touch more than a year. The works are good, first time gelded going to run angry.
5 – ACCEPTABLE RISK – bombed in his last as the heavy chalk, claim and drop for Linda Rice 30% winner. All she needs to do is get him to run back to his first two start and he makes EZ work – watch the odds.
6 – WICKED MAD – is taking a sizeable drop. I like that Trevor McCarthy is on a closer, he just knows when to get them running
Race 3 – 6 furlongs, 18 races, 13 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 and 8+ bias, 4-7 struggle
4 – MISS PEPPINA – might be a horse for the course with 2 wins in three at BP, just 1 in 11 elsewhere. Getting a small weight break and has some back speed.
5 – BIG AL’S GAL – TLRSP# and drops in class. This is another that appears to prefer Belmont’s wider turns with 5/2-1-1 record
1 – SHE’S A BLACK BELT – many players might run away after that last race, but tr Mertkan Kantarmaci is dropping 2 levels a 38% angle. I see it as a good sign that she’s making two starts in a row w/o a break. It’s something she hasn’t been able to do in almost a year – tells me she’s finally healthy.
7 – QUALITY STONES – seems to alternate between good/bad races. Last was one of her worst. Let’s see if the pattern continues and this could be the right track 3/2-0-0
Race 4 – 6 furlongs Inner Turf, 10 races, 7 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: no rail or 8+, 4-7 a little better 2/3
4 – GAL IN A RUSH – just missed in a pair of 6 f inner turf races as a 2 yo. Gets Lasix for start of 3 yo campaign. Expecting a better, stronger older version from this $375k horse.
2 – POPPY FLOWER – like the 4, is making her 3 yo debut. She has one of my favorite combos, early speed with fist time Lasix.
3 – MAC THE PEE H DEE – major improvement in her second start, especially in the first ½ mile. I don’t think she had to work too hard and I am expected to see her best against these.
5 – SCREAMIN’ BY – tends to show interest late, which usually isn’t the right style in short fields
Race 5 – 7 furlongs, 9 races, 100% won by speed, 4 w2w -PP: small outside in 7-1
7 – SHESALITTLE EDGY – is dropping in class after a strong performance, likes the track and distance 3/2-1-0
3 – CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE – last race showed improvement in beginning and end of last race, looking for a big race here
1 – EASY TO BLESS – TLRSP# and has a maintenance workout since, should remain sharp
4 – GREATEST LOVE – is considerably better than the 5 on paper and is making her first start for trainer Gustavo Rodriguez, winner 6 of 18.
Race 6 – 6 furlongs Turf, 6 races, 4 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: zero from the rail, 4-7 best, 2/3>8+
10 – DOT’S DOLLAR – TLRSP# in MCL win last out, huge SP# jump in first race with tr Thomas Morley, a new horse or a bounce?
11 – COUSIN ANDREW – has been off since November, but has a solid record off lengthy breaks, will be coming at the end
2 – BOOM BOOM KABOOM – won his last with the 3rs SP# increase in a row, has a good maintenance work between
1 – JUGGLER – jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz, Jr. Has two seconds in two off track races
Race 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, 11 races, 6 won by speed, 4 w2w -PP: small rail penalty, fair 2-7, zero 8+
9 – ALCOOLS – TLRSP#, claimed and dropping for tr Robert Falcone Jr, winner 7/18
2 – CASALSA – won in his first race after a short layoff, resume says he could be better, Luis Saez has a win, a 2nd and one off the board trip in 3 rides
3 – REJECTED AGAIN – tr Linda Rice dropping 2 classes, a 35% angle, switching to Jose Lezcano, team 6/4-0-1
8 – ZAEVION – finished with interest in his last, not sure if he had a choice, but Trevor stays here instead of riding the 2 or 6, expecting gains in round 2 off the bench
Race 8 – 6 furlongs Inner Turf, 10 races, 7 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: no rail or 8+, 4-7 a little better 2/3
11 – JILL’S A HOT MESS – been off since late October, 29f or works, right distance 2/1-0-1 and likes the grass 6/3-0-1
13 – CHASING CARA – should be pilot or co pilot with the 11 and speed is dangerous in short fields
12 – PRETTY CLEVER – is coming off an extended break, finished 2nd by a nose the last time with similar circumstances, 3/1-1-1 on an off track
9 – PURRAGEOUS DYNA – can pop from time to time in the mud
Race 9 – 7 furlongs Turf, 5 races, all won off the pace, 0 w2w -PP: none from rail, 4-7>2/3 and 8+
Taking the top 4 MSW to MCL droppers in order of my perceived value
12 – NORTH CAROLINA – is likely to be on/near the lead, TPLRSP#
16 – BOLD VICTORY – missed as chalk in his last, 3/0-2-1 on the slop, could step forward in 2nd off the bench
7 – OVEREXAGGERATE – going to take a flier, 1st gelded, first race in more than a year and that was his debut, not a cheap horse at 47K, really fast work on May 12, MSW to MCL
5 – KING OF STING – get Irad and does have the EP edge over the rest.
HOT DOG Pick 4 – $18
R2 – 1,2,5
R3 – 1,4,5
R4 – 2,4
R5 – 3,7
PRIME RIB Pick 4 -$72
R6 – 1,2,10,11
R7 – 2,3,8,9
R8 – 11,12,13
R9 – 7,12,16
