Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Canterbury Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Delaware Park Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Presque Isle Downs
Canterbury Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Handicapping” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Taking Charge Desi – She ran 3rd in her last race, early speed running style helps chances and may improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Bombarra Gold – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-0-2).
4 – Jetinwithclass – She switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
2 – May Disco – She was off slow and 4w in the turn in her last start finishing 4th.
Alternate:
3 – Luna S
6 – Grandiose Summer
Race 2
5 – Exxel – He won his last race at Canterbury Park; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
2 – Shadowless – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a high % jockey and trainer who wins 30% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
6 – Lochmoor – He finished in the money in his last four races, winning one.
1 – Magic Revolution – He finished in the money in his last three races, winning one of the starts and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Pure RocketMidlaner
4 – Citrus Bay
Race 3
10 – Elle of the Ball – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and switches to a high % winning jockey.
3 – Sky High Susan – She has won two of her last three races.
13 – Blissful – She won her debut race at Saratoga and has a bullet 4F workout on Jun-12.
5 – Schlofmitz – She finished 3rd in her last race and won two of her last four races.
Alternate:
2 – Twirling Savi
6 – Captaire
Race 4
12 – Plane Talk – He won his last race at Canterbury Park; the trainer wins 30% of Non-Graded Stake races he has an entry in and a good 4F workout on Jun-12.
3 – Mark of the Z – He has finished in the money in nine of his last ten races, winning two.
4 – Seven Scents – He finished 3rd in his last race at Pimlico, winning the race before at Keenland.
2 – Xy Speed – He has won nine of his twenty-three career races.
Alternate:
7 – On Your Mark
9 – Tiger Dad
Race 5
4 – Royals’ Lil Diva – He won his last race at Canterbury Park; has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Color Me Legendary – He won his debut race at Canterbury Park, was well bet in debut and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
5 – Queenscaballo– He has won the last three races in a row and has a bullet workout.
7 – Bailout Kela – He switches to a high % winning jockey and has finished in the money in four out of the last five races.
Alternate:
2 – Ojitos
1 – Shinboro
Race 6
7 – She Can’t Sing – She has won three races in a row, and she has the highest last race speed rating – She has a high % winning trainer jockey.
8 – Saranya –She finished in 4th in her race and has a bullet workout.
2 – Amalfi Princess – She won her last race at Belmont Park and has a 2nd in her onl start at Canterbury Park.
9 – Swanage – She likes the turf and distance and has won one race out of the last three finishing in the money in two others.
Alternate:
12 – Ready to Runaway
5 – Niceno
Race 7
7 – Tut’s Revenge – He won his last race at Canterbury Park; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Mr Dumas – He finished in the money in the last six races, winning one of the starts and has a good workout.
9 – Drama Chorus – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
4 – Two Emmys – He has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and the trainer wins 30% of Non-Graded Stakes he has an entry in.
Alternate:
12 – Agent Peter Graves
10 – Rochambeau
Race 8
8 – Stitched – He won his last race and has a good 4F workout on Jun-13.
11 – Bens Malice – He finished in the money in six of his last six races, winning two of the starts.
4 – Tonka Warrior – He won his last race at Canterbury Park; breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has produced 2 Turf winners.
2 – Next Journey – He ran 2nd in last race and has a high % winning Jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Magoo
10 – Heaven Street
Race 9
4 – Devoted to You – He finished in the money in his last six races, winning one of the starts and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-3-6).
3 – Westa Waverly – He has a high % winning trainer, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Mark of Valor – He won his last race at Canterbury Park and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-0-2)
2 – Overseas Letter – He was claimed in his last race by a trainer who wins 20% of the first race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
8 – Gone a Lil Lu Hu
1 – J J’s Wildcat
Race 10
2 – Temporarily – She won his last race at Canterbury Park, and she has the best highest last race speed rating.
7 – Outworktheokiegirl – She has a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
4 – Milliganmikeandme – She finished 2nd in her last race at Canterbury Park.
5 – Speedy Enough – She finished 3rd in her last race and the trainer wins 28% of the races when taking a horse Up 2+ classes.
Alternate:
1 – Priceless Miracle
3 – Credit Card Fraud
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 27 races, 21 won by speed, 12 w2w – PP: Strong 8+ bias
4 – JETINWITHCLASS – significant drop in class, track drop from CD, improving works at Canterbury
1 – TAKING CHARGE DESI – some improvement early in second start off the bench, similar fractions at 6 ½ f vs 5 ½ f
5 – BOMBARRA GOLD – another making her 3rd start after a layoff, some regression in last, similar pattern to last 3 race cycle, top number first and then regress, regress
2 – MAY DISCO – last race was better than it looks on paper with better times at 6 ½ f than 6 f
3 – LUNA S
6 – GRANDIOSE SUMMER
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 17 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, discount 4-7
5 – EXXEL – he should have his way as an EP horse with the E horse #4 nowhere near his EP, best speed numbers by a decent margin
2 – SHADOWLESS – probably chases the 5 all the way around the track but may not have what it takes to pass him
6 – LOCHMOOR – tough call over the 4, but ran better numbers at OP, and less races, meaning he still could have some upside
4 – CITRUS BAY – tough call over the 3, but like above has better numbers at OP and both have a similar number of races
3 – PURE ROCKET
1 – MAGIC REVOLUTION
Race 3 – 1 Mile Turf, 24 races, 13 won off the pace, 5 2w2 – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ a little better than 4-7
This is a hard race – go with the high odds to get paid if you are right
12 – LATIN NIKKITA – blowout late pace number in last race, TLRSP# at CBY, distance 3/2-1-0
10 – ELLE OF THE BALL – broke MDW 120 at CD in last, been on turf 2x with 2/1-0-1,
5 – SCHLOFMITZ – won his last OC 80k at CD in first try on grass, but numbers were slower than #10, 3SP# increase
1 – WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS – gets the high win rate rail, probably faced the toughest comp last out, top connections of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux – tough call over #13, but been racing and neither is coming out of a key race
13 – BLISSFUL
9 – DREAMWORKER
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 13 races. 8 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: inside 3 and 8+ bonus, 4-7 suffer
There are a lot of upfront types here and the early fractions could get hot, speed of the speed if you go that way
11 – CHESS MASTER – speed of the speed but a lot of speed to the inside, won 3/5 at CBY 10/21 at the distance, you know you are going to have solid chance to win
2 – XY SPEED – usually breaks well and has enough tactical speed to get to the front and wont have a problem clearing the 1, just has to be careful not to let outside speed or could get lost in the shuffle
7 – ON YOUR MARK – there is going to be plenty of giddy up and go and he could get the ideal trip as a result, fast enough to stay in touch, but can get it going late
13 – SPYCRAFT – really want to rank some of these outside speed horses higher, but with so much speed inside, they might have to go too fast
4 – SEVEN SCENTS
12 – PLANE TALK
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 17 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, discount 4-7
4 – ROYALS’ LIL DIVA – won her debut with TLRSP#, a repeat performance is a return to the winners’ circle
2 – OJITOS – taking a drop, track drop from OP, won her debut at OP MSW 84, by far highest level
3 – COLOR ME LEGENDARY – another debut winner last out, fractions are similar to top pick, but had to work harder
5 – QUEENSCABALLO – was running in lower level Non graded stakes at Fonner, swift work between races
7 – BAILOUT KELA
8 – JACKS WILLIE
Race 6 – 1 Mile Turf, 24 races, 13 won off the pace, 5 2w2 – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ a little better than 4-7
8 – SARANYA – won her only trip on CBY turf, nice workouts getting ready, has the top LP#s by a little and should not be too far from the front
7 – SHE CAN’T SING – has the 2nd most late punch, drops form a G3, some fast works since, concern is 1 mile might be a touch too short
2 – AMALFI PRINCESS – just missed vs top choice in her only CBY grass go, this is the 3rd race after a layoff and she ran faster fractions at 6f last out vs 5 ½ f in previous start
4 – BEACH FLOWER – this 9 yo mare has done some of her best work on CBY turf, ITM 81/13
13 – LADY HIDEAWAY
3 – MEDALLA MATCH
Race 7 – 1 Mile Turf, 24 races, 13 won off the pace, 5 2w2 – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ a little better than 4-7
9 – DRAMA CHORUS – loves CBY grass, 7/4-2-0, distance 6/2-3-0, could sit right behind a hot pace and has the late legs to run by
7 – TUT’S REVENGE – never missed the money in 10 at the distance, TLRSP#, but peak #, probably backs up a little
4 – TWO EMMYS – has been facing tougher and drops in class from a G3, needs the lead to win and will have plenty of company upfront
6 – MR DUMAS – our friend trainer John Ortiz’s horse, is another that could get a great setup and go by at the end
12 – AGENT PETER GRAVES
8 – GOALIE
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf, 24 races, 13 won off the pace, 5 2w2 – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ a little better than 4-7
11 – BENS MALICE – has a huge LP edge over this group, two for two at CBY and could improve in R2 off the sidelines
5 – MAGOO – has TLRSP#, jy Lidey Wade and Tr Robertson McLean win at 30% together
8 – STITCHED – is undefeated in four at the distance, needs the lead and might struggle to get it
6 – DOWAGIAC CHIEF – has the top pedigree for turf, is all or nothing
2 – NEXT JOURNEY
9 – XAVEY DAVE
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 27 races, 21 won by speed, 12 w2w – PP: Strong 8+ bias
4 – DEVOTED TO YOU – improved noticeably in only other 2nd start after a break, TLRSP#
8 – GONE A LIL LU HU – all have similar EP numbers but this one has a strong late advantage, won the last time he was off a long time
3 – WESTA WAVERLY – big drop in class, last race wasn’t as bad as it looks was early fractions we in line with previous race, but tailed off badly at the end
1 – J J’s WILDCAT – toss the last on mud, ITM 8/10 on a fast track and 5/1-0-3 at the distance
2 – OVERSEAS LETTER – probably the best of the rest
6 – MARK OF VALOR
7 – PASSTHECAT
Race 10 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 17 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, discount 4-7
6 – FULL SPEED ASTERN – drops in class and making 2nd start for tr Michael Bullene, 29% angle
2 – TEMPORARILY – TLRSP# in first race of CBY dirt, but MCL 10k
5 – SPEEDY ENOUGH – improved in his last race, enough that tr David Van Winkle is bumping him up, a 29% angle for a 21% trainer
7 – OUTWORKTHEOKIEGIRL – has the top EP/LP combo in the field, but concerned he regressed in last
4 – MILLIGANMIKEANDME
1 – PRICELESS MIRACLE
