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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks

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Horse Racing Today – Churchill Downs Picks Live – Saturday, November 26, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Horse Racing Picks

Churchill Downs Racing Full Card Picks

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Tampa Bay Downs

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1

8 – Determinedly – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.

7 – Prairie Dunes – He is a deep closer who may just catch the leaders.

4 – Desert Wolf – He has Tyler Gaffalione in the irons and is trained by Todd Pletcher whose horses wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to run.

6 – Sun Thunder – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time starters, his Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-2-1).

Alternate:

5 – Shopper’s Revenge

9 – Dreamwithinadream


Race 2
 

5 – Towhead – She is the only horse that has a win and ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-0).

7 – Comparative – She finished 3rd in her two career races, has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has finished in the money in 50% of their starts, winning 25% of the races and has a bullet 4F workout on Nov-20.

1 – Wits and Wagers – She has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.

9 – Stay Lost – She had a good race last time out, changes to high % winning trainer Norm Casse and switches to jockey Smokin Joe Talamo.

Alternate:

4 – Mija

12 – Theroanrunner


Race 3

4 – Two Eagles River – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs and received a 104-race speed rating and has a good 4f ft :48 B 3/34 on 15Nov @ CD.

2 – Victory Formation – He won his debut race at Keenland as the heavily bet favorite, his best dirt speed is fastest among todays, and he has a good 5F workout on Nov-18.

5 – Joking Way – He won his last race at Churchill Downs and has a good workout on 22Nov CD 3f ft :37.4 B 2/9.

6 – Lugan Knight – He finished 1st & 2nd in his two career races and has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

7 – Coffee Caliente

3 – Lord Grantham

Race 4

10 – Bru Na Boinne – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, received the highest last race speed rating and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-2).

12 – Poblano – She finished 2nd vs similar in her only start and has a high % winning jockey.

11 – Vahva – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a good workout on Nov. 20th.

7 – Patty Van Twinkle – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start and has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

15 – Klassy Bridgette

5 – Market Profile

 

Race 5

9 – Spielman – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and is ready to graduate, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

7 – Point Proven – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a decent workout on Nov. 18th.

2 – Escapologist – He was bumped at the start in his last race and finished 4th, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

10 – Endpoint – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-2).

Alternate:

8 – Level Up

Race 6

5 – Worthington – He won his last race at Keenland and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (13 4-4-0).

10 – Deer District – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and should improve at the shorter distance.

1 – Good Heart – He tried a Grade 1 events in his last race and did not finish well and now is back to a class he can be competitive in.

3 – Mendel’s Secret – He has an early foot and should improve at the shorter distance and his trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-0).

Alternate:

12- Aristocracy

9 – Donegal Factor

Race 7 

3 – Key of Life – She has won three out of her four career races, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

4 – Twirled – She is a nose from being perfect in her two-race career and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Red Carpet Ready – She won her debut race easily and has a good trainer and jockey.

5 – Tell Me When – She has finished in the money in three out of four career races, winning her last race at Churchill Downs and her jockey in last 7 days has won six races out of twenty-four starts. 

Alternate:

2 – The Great Maybe

1 – Baytown Lovely

Race 8

5 – Hit Show – He won his debut race at Keenland after being heavily bet and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Highway Robber – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs and has a high % winning trainer.

4 – Must Be the Money – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs as the heavily bet favorite and has a good 5F workout on Nov-19.

7 – Rocket Can – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, received the highest last race speed rating and has a good 5F workout on Nov-18.

Alternate:

10 – Ten Days Later

6 – Confidence Game 

 

Race 9

5 – Powerful – He disappointed in a Grade 1 event in his last race and now returns to a class of horses he can beat cutting back to a shorter which is more to his running style.

6 – Top Recruit – He has won two out of five career races and can improve while returning to a sprint.

3 – Mr Bob – He won his last race at Keenland and has a bullet 4f ft :47 B 1/23 on 15Nov.

4 – Frosted Departure – He is returning to a sprint which may help, and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-22.

Alternate:

7 – Mounsieur Coco

2 – Bourbon Bash

Race 10

4 – Hoosier Philly – She is undefeated in two career starts, has the highest last race speed rating and a good 4F workout on Nov-17.

7 – T Max – She has won two out of three career starts finishing 2nd in her last race, has a good trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.

1 – Pretty Mischievous – She has won two races in a row and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.

8 – Pure Pauline – She won her last race at Keenland and at today’s distance closing from off the pace.

Alternate:

5 – Black Forest

10 – Defining Purpose

Race 11

9 – Cyclone Mischief – He won his last race at Keenland at today’s distance with jockey Smokin Joe Talamo who returns to ride again.

1 – Curley Jack – He has won two out of five career starts, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

8 – Instant Coffee – He finished 4th in his last race a Grade 1 event, is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez.

6 – Freedom Trail –He has won both of his career races and has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.

Alternate:

7 – Hayes Strike

4 – Gigante

Race 12

11 – Mobster – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start and has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.

6 – Itzos – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 20% with 1st time Starters, the Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and 1 stake win and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-2).

3 – Talladega – He was heavily bet in his debut and has a trainer who has won races out of two starts in last 14 days and 4F workout on Nov-18.

4 – Backside Buzz –He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Alternate:

2 – King d’Oro

5 – Midnight Pranks

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed PP2+ fair with Rail Penalty

8 – DETERMINEDLY – TLRSP# and being better ATB in last

7 – PRAIRIE DUNES – 2nd by a neck in last – Chris P angle, Z pattern with better fractions last out

9 – DREAMWITHINADREAM – lone experienced P horse with +/O combo

6 – SUN THUNDER – $400k 1st time starter with some very fast 3f works at Saratoga – there isn’t a lot of speed in here from experienced horses, if he pops to an easy lead, could go w2w

 

Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed

5 – TOWHEAD – Better ATB in move back to dirt after four on grass, ITM 7/1-3-2

7 – COMPARATIVE – been well bet in both starts – NOV 20 bullet is fist in published works – big effort today?

3 – ROSES AND ROZAY – Z pattern in last and supersized LP – 2nd route 19% winner for 15% tr Kenneth McPeek

10 – HARMONICA – should be close to the pace in 1st route after debuting at 7f, tr Thomas Drury, Jr hits at 29% versus 19% overall, major Alpha Angle and the CD works have been hot

 

Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with fair PPs

4 – TWO EAGLES RIVER – ML 4-1 doesn’t make sense to me, +/4f, LP#1, ++O in debut, with by far best SP#, same race = same result – nice work between – sign me up

5 – JOKING WAY – was better ATB in career start 2 as the even money favorite – top pedigree #s

2 – VICTORY FORMATION – EZ debut winner with bullet work on Nove 18 – fastest 5f of 33 in 1 minute flat

8 – GOLD LUCK – lonely C horse, 2nd off the claim for tr Genaro Garcia 24% winner – I feel like one of the top 3 will produce the winner – why not take a shot here?

 

Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed PP 2+ fair with Rail Penalty

10 – BRU NA BOINNE – TLRSP# – tr Brett Calhoun hits 21% in 2nd career starts vs 15% over all

1 – DEAR LADY – rail has a penalty but – CD works on Nov 9th 4f in 47.3 and Oct 26th 3f in 35.4 hint at a fast horse

4 – LADY IRENE – another 1st time starter with some good works

11 – VAHVA – been well bet in both starts – had excuses in first two, blew a big lead late in her last, clean start, not problems, holds on today?

 

Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed Barbell Style, Rail and 8+ best, 4-7 fair, 2/3 major discount

9 – SPIELMAN – leaping forward race to race – same move forward here and it’s a winner

4 – HARD TO COME BY – interesting that Tyler G is here and not in the 11 that was well bet in debut for Asmussen – some good workouts here, wonder if Tyler has been working him? Or if Asmussen didn’t care for debut ride?

11 – SPOILER – in case TG made a mistake, 24f of works since debut on Oct 9, eye on the NOV 15 work

2 – ESCAPOLOGIST – should be rolling late with some stiff LP#s – draw kind of sucks

 

Race 6: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Just 1 on the new Turf Course w2w from 8+

1 – GOOD HEART – Tyler G tell? Rode 5 to w win last out and 3 in debut win, stays here instead, must really like debut on turf vs G1 try on dirt in last

10 – DEER DISTRICT – either of last two probably gets the job done here, LP+ P horse, trip will be important

5 – WORTHINGTON – significant step up in race #2 to get maiden score

2 – CURLINS INCHARGE – plenty of EP in this race with 8/10 Es or Ps – debut on Turf showed some nice late run at 6 1/2f – extra distance helps

 

Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Inside Out Speed

3 – KEY OF LIFE – won last 3 with ease, a little better 2/4f pace#s

6 – RED CARPET READY – debut was strong, strong fractions and won by 10

2 – THE GREAT MAYBE – if she runs back to debut – good works suggest she could

4 – TWIRLED – better ATB in her last winning her 2nd, but just a nose from winning both

 

Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed

2 – HIGHWAY ROBBER – Left Arrow horse that won debut with ease, strong effort start to finish

7 – ROCKET CAN – TLRSP# and was brilliant late in his last, was first at CD – Lonely P with scratches

4 – MUST BE THE MONEY – big closing run from start to finish as the 3/2 favorite, good works getting ready

5 – HIT SHOW – smoked them in her debut at Keeneland as 7/5 favorite, extra distance helps here

 

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Inside Out Speed

6 – TOP RECRUIT – should be happy to get back on a fast track after running in the slop last 2

7 – MOUNSIEUR COCO – has a +O edge, only question is 1st at CD, last CD work was swift

3 – MR BOB – TLRSP# and then a bullet work on the Churchill training track – still sharp

4 – FROSTED DEPARTURE – tough call over the 5, but at his best looks a touch better

 

Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed

4 – HOOSIER PHILLY – won both with ease, love the comment for last, “splashed away, frolicked”

1 – PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS – Left Arrow horse, major mid move in last race and also undefeated in a pair of easy wins

8 – PURE PAULINE – lonely P horse that’s been the betting favorite in both

7 – T MAX – could get be on the front with easier fractions with the 5 scratched

Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed

1 – CURLY JACK – Left Arrow horse and lone PC with +4 EP edge

3 – DENINGTON – TLRSP# and just exploded at the end of his last race – best EP/LP combo

8 – INSTANT COFFEE – probably the best 2 races for this group, needs to get off to a better start, works suggest he could

6 – FREEDOM TRAIL – undefeated in two on grass, if he can bring that form to dirt?

 

Race 12: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed PP 2+ fair with Rail Penalty

11 – MOBSTER – has the top LP and had the top EPlLP combo in debut, really nice works between races

5 – MIDNIGHT PRANKS – Left Arrow horse, maintenance work between races

3 – TALLADEGA – was betting favorite in debut, a pair of fast works since

6 – ITZOS – $1.4 million horse, better get to earning some it back in debut

 

Churchill Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet (Races 1-6)

Churchill Downs Pace Worksheet 11-26-22

Churchill Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet (Races 7-12)

Churchill Downs Pace Worksheet 11-26-22 part 2

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