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Horse Racing Today – Churchill Downs Picks Live – Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Horse Racing Picks

Churchill Downs Racing Full Card Picks

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley

Churchill Downs Horse racing Picks and Commentary

Santa Charles’ Selections

  1. 5,1,4,3
  2. 8,12,10,13
  3. 6,2,1,7
  4. 4,7,8,11
  5. 3,5,7,4
  6. 1,6,4,2
  7. 12,9,4,3
  8. 8,6,5,4
  9. 9,7,3,1
  10. 5,6,2,11

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7

1 – MONTAUK DADDY – has a +2f edge and drops multiple classes here, last race major 4f & LP improvement in last

5 – ALFIE SOLOMONS – some really nice CD works getting ready for her 1st CD race, Mike Smith angle

2 – RETALIATED – best of the rest, distance 13/1-3-3

3 – GUARD – lone PC horse vs all others that want to be forwardly placed

 

Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: 50/50 Outside In Bias with 4-7 best

12 – LET ME LOVE YOU – BTN FAV with a little better early fractions and improved 2/4 pace#s

4 – GABE – maybe better in career start two, showed some pace in debut, best EP/LP combo

8 – GRIMES – 1st off the claim for Steve Asmussen – solid CD run in last

10 – DAY TRADE – decently bet in debut, off to an OK start, steady works since, Geroux and Cox

 

Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7

7 – DONYA KNOW IT – second off the bench and has some strong works since her last

5 – BAYSHORE FOXES – carried her speed longer in her last and was better ATB

3 – ALSANAH – not the biggest MCL riser unless… TLRSP# in first at CD, track was sloppy

2 – SAVE GRACE – got MCL 30k win in last, 1st off the bench, bullet work since

 

Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: 50/50 Outside In Bias with 4-7 best

5 – FROSTED DIAMOND – CD 5/0-2-1 was better in the 1st half mile of her last. 21f works since last

4 – NIMRODS – Left Arrow horse was well bet in debut, dropping multiple classes, 23% angle for 9% winning tr, top EP/LP Combo

12 – MINT – Lonely EP horse w/o 14 in, 1st four races were good enough to win this, lots of problem at the start of last, was well bet

3 – ALFIO – was better ATB, TLRSP#, top LP so going longer should help

 

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed with and Inside Three Bias

5 – LEBLON – has the best CD#s and has a couple of bullet works in his last two

4 – CAN’T HUSH THIS – tie for the TLRSP# and better pace #s in first half mile

6 – CARMICHAEL – lonely EP horse with the most LP, likely better 2nd off the break with a bullet between

3 – KING’S OVATION – been off for 7 months – plenty of workout on schedule and OK getting ready, tough call over the 7

 

Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7

1 – BET HE’S READY – TLRSP# and room for more in 2nd off the break according to resume

3 – INSOLITO – has a +2/4 EP edge and a decent maintenance workout since last

4 – CYCLONE – has a +LP advantage with better 2/4f pace #s in fist off the bench

7 – BOURBON CREED – looking at the NOV 5 workout, was very good, tough call over the 2

Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7

12 – HIGH CLASS – last race SP# way above any other experienced horses, regression is possible

3 – EFFORTLESSLYELGANT – bullet and go first time starters, $475 horse

2 – EXHIBIT HALL – $1.6 million horse, OK works, Luis Saez tells me they believe they have a chance

4 – MALIBU TOAST – hard call over the 1, but the 2/4f pace#s showed crazy improvement in last

1 – BABY GOT BACKSPIN – drops from a 200k NGSTK – consistent performer – worried not a lot of upside potential

 

Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: 50/50 Outside In Bias with 4-7 best

2 – SUMMER SPLASH – TLRSP#, 1st off the claim – 18% winner for 10% tr Juan Cano

6 – RUNWAY MAGIC – strong fractions in claiming win, tr Joe Sharp winner 11/33 when staying in claiming

8 – RODERICK – consistent high end performer and drops in class, should be involved from start to finish

4 – EMERALD EXPRESS – Left Arrow horse with the 2nd best EP/LP combo

 

Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail Penalty, little bonus 2/3, 4+ fair

9 – MARSALIS – lonely P horse that is a head and ¾ lengths from being undefeated in 4, +O

1 – WAYAKIN – popped for a big effort in last, has a bullet workout since, in form for sure

3 – HE’SMYHONEYBADGER – consistent performer, average race is good enough to win here, strong LP#s

6 – COASTAL DEFENSE – been off for more than a year, bullet and for says he could be ready to go, CD 4/2-1-0

 

Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail Penalty, little bonus 2/3, 4+ fair

6 – GIROOVIN – better fractions at 1m v 7f, top LP in the field

5 – HAROLD’S CLOUD – could be lone speed and has some nice works since debut

9 – OWN THE FIELD – +EP/LP combo, some good CD works for 1st race since late Aug at Saratoga

2 – SLAMMING IT – let’s take a shot with Cox and Geroux, tr Cox hits at 24% MSW

Churchill Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet

 

 

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