Horse Racing Today – Churchill Downs Picks – Thursday, November 3, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Horse Racing Picks

Churchill Downs Full Card Picks

Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Breeders’ Cup Preview: Big Ass Mile https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/2022BCSAMPLE.pdf

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Remington Park

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks and Commentary

Charles Tango’s Tips

1. 1,5,4,6
2. 6,1,2,5
3. 1,6,4,8
4. 2,6,7,3
5. 8,5,1,9
6. 1,3,6,8
7. 7,11,6,3
8. 10,5,9,3
9. 5,9,11,1
10. 1,12,8,4

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Outside and off the Pace

4 – SAINT EROS GIRL – Should be a part of the EP but also has some Late Kick

1 – DOMITIA LUCILLA – TLRSP# by a good margin, big bump up in MCL win expect some regression

2 – MONOCACY – has the most LP in the field and fills out the gimmicks

3 – SWEET BEAUTY – closer that should move closer to the front versus these

Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Outside and off the Pace

6 – HOMETOWN HERO – has a +LP edge over the rest takes a sizeable drop 1from Cali Turf – CD 4/2-1-0

2 – AMERICAN PURE – Just missed in his last with a better first half mile

3 – ARTHURIAN – would make EZ work of this crew if he ran back three races

4 – SPEED BOAT – tough call over the 5, but need to have one of the likely frontrunners in here

Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Outside and off the Pace

4 – GIROOVIN – tied for TLLRSP# and has the best EP/LP combo for these light resume horses

1 – LET ME LOVE YOU – the other to tie for TLRSP# and the most late pop by a decent bit

6 – ATKINS – he was bet down to 2-1 in his last race and has 3 really sharp works since

5 – BOOSTER SHOT – probably going to regret putting over the 8, but pedigree says he is the best fit for distance and surface

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Outside and off the Pace

3 – SHE’LL NEVER KNOW – won her maiden in the 3^rd try with much better fractions, been on a regular work schedule since

1 – CUPIDS PAYDAY – is coming off the maiden win in debut and has two maintenance works since

6 – CONDENSATION – not a big fan of Belterra shippers, but won debut by 8 ¼ and tr William Cowans hits at 30% with shippers

5 – IT TAKES HEART – TLRSP# in a 110K NGSTK at Prairie Mdws, the Churchill works are eh, Mike Smith angle

Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Outside and off the Pace

5 – LIL RED CLOUD – going take a flyer here, only lightly races horse to show continued improvement in last

6 – LANTERN’S CANDY – has the best Churchill dirt numbers by a good margin and tr Genaro Garcia wins 24% second off the claim

12 – VERDANDI – could be lone speed and has the top LP numbers to boot

1 – SWEET VALERIA – difficult call over the 8, but has he top EP/LP combo and can improve in third off the bench

Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed slight edge 4-7

6 – HELLORHIGHWATER – 3SP# increases in a row, TLRSP#, considerably better CD#s than all the rest

8 – BARSTOW – another that stepping up the speed number ladder, distance 3/1-0-2

10 – NOT YET CHARLIE – has a +EP edge at 4f, down multiple classes and was much better late in last

1 – FERRYBOAT – 1^st off the claim tr Jerome Miller 1/8 but +3.45 ROI and winner 2/3 w/ Jockey John Court for +6.57 ROI – if it hits, it pays

Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Outside and off the Pace 

7 – DOUBLE STRIKE – maybe reading into to it too much, maybe he is trainer committed, but Tyler G gets off the 1 to ride a 1^st timer

1 – SERGEANT COUNTZLER – was the $0.90 favorite in his last in May with Tyler G, Oct 14 & 21 works says he could live up to those favorite expectations

5 – TOM’S SPIRIT – MSW to MCL dropper for tr William Cowans, 42% angle (5/12) for 20% trainer

6 – SACRED GROUND – another MSW to MCL drop, tr Robertino Diodoro 38% on the drop, 32% first time claiming vs 20% overall, really like the maintenance work between races

Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with rail and 8+ penalties, but not deal killers

3 – SHEZZ KOLDAZICE – good form right now, better early numbers is last, top EP/LP horse should get a good trip

9 – CANT BE TOUCHED – drops back to the class where he was claimed, should be on the lead, wins if he stays on the lead into the stretch

1 – WATERS OF MEROM – claimed and moved up multiple classes, TLRSP# in first off the bench since July, resume says 2/3 – second runs were better than first

5 – LOMA VISTA – super consistent horse coming in from Cali – CD training track works aren’t encouraging

Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – I think this is the 1^st race on the new turf course, yesterday’s was moved to dirt, so who knows what to expect

1 – ELLE OF THE BALL – won her lone CD turf race with her career best effort, usually closing on turf with strong numbers

2  – FAST AS FLIGHT – should not be too far off the pace, had more late in her last, looking for more in the 3^rd after a layoff

6 – DUPLICITOUS – it may not look like in the W/P/S column in the PPs, but this left arrow horse runs his best on grass

9 – FUENTE OVEJUNA – kind of is who she is, sort of runs the same race over and over, makes noise late but just doesn’t close the deal

Race 10: 1 Mile – Bias: Outside and off the Pace

1 – VICTORY MARCH – ran much better fractions last out and finished 2^nd behind a horse I think you could see running in stakes races down the line

8 – MOUNT CRAIG – Mike Smith angle for sure – comes in from Belmont and has been tearing up CD works

6 – MIDNIGHT RAID – TLRSP# and will be lone P horse between speed and closers

9 – BOLD LOOKER – missed  badly as BTN FAV  – tr Brian Lynch rebounds at 27% versus 20% overall

Churchill Downs Way to Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet