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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks

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Horse Racing Today – Churchill Downs Picks – Thursday, September 15, 2022

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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks and Commentary

Charles’ Choices

  1. 3,9,10,4
  2. 1,4,5,6
  3. 3,8,7,6
  4. 6,8,7,10
  5. 1,4,7,5
  6. 6,12,9,11
  7. 1,4,6,3
  8. 7,2,9,11

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 1 1/16 Miles, 67 races, 44 won by speed, 16 w2w – PP: Strong rail bias, 2-7 fair, 8+ major penalty

2 – STAR ENTERTAINER – LS – has a +++LP edge and +++ EP/LP combo advantage, TLRSP#, down multiple classes, 35% winner tr John Ortiz

3 – BLUNDER – was much better late in his first race for tr Thomas Amoss, who wins 2nd after a claim at 29%

9 – PREDOMINATE – drops from $150 MSW – seems like too big a drop, but tr Wayne Catalano wins at 24% on the MSW to MCL drop – last race nice Z pattern

10 – ATOMIC TONE – left arrow horse, doesn’t look like it on paper, but could be pacesetter, looking at Aug 26 work as indication of what he might be capable of

6 – HORNBEAM

8 – ASHWINS ORB

 

Race 2 – 1 Mile, 52 races, 39 won by speed, 12 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 slightly below par, 8+ penalty

2 – SMARMY – top EP#s, really nice works since July 12 race, CD 3/2-1-0

1 – GUANA CAY – was a lot better in the first ½ mile of last, TLRSP#, tr Cipriano Contreras 23% winner 3rd off the break, w/ jy Francisco Arrieta ITM 7/8, but 2/0-0-0 at CD

6 – POWDER RIVER – decent works getting ready, should get the trip she wants

4 – TAP DANCING LADY – has a +LP advantage, 2 of last 3 works were bullets, distance 3/0-1-2

3 – TEMPER TIME

5 – LE DA VIDA

 

Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 69 races, 45 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: mostly fair

8 – ONE FOR RICHIE – it’s all in the name – what else do you need, has a +EP/LP combo and likely to be the pacesetter

7 – THIRSTY BETRAYAL – winner of 2 straight, CD 9/3-3-0, distance 16/6-1-3, only 3 wins in 16 and any other

6 – BIG SPORT – another fan of the distance, 21/11-2-2, won last, tr Brittany Vanden Berg goes back-to-back Ws at 35% – 43/124

2 – ALL WEST – tough call over the 3, but better fractions in last and 15-1 vs 3-1

3 – TOTALIZER

4 – TETSU

 

Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 69 races, 45 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: mostly fair

6 – INSOLITO – +EP @ 2/4f, TLRSP#, drops from MSW 84k, tr Brad Cox 33% on the MSW to MCL drop

2 – CONSTITUTIONAL LAW – another MSW dropper, hasn’t raced since March – but some really good works in his last two

11 – NORGAY – nearly a +++ LP# edge, could be his best in 3rd off the bench, usually passed horses late

10 – LUCKY SMILE

7 – CLOUD WITHOUT REIN

9 – SCRATCHOFF

 

Race 5 – 1 Mile, 52 races, 39 won by speed, 12 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 slightly below par, 8+ penalty 

5 – SUMMONYOURCOURAGE – increased his SP# in 3 races after debut, better fractions at 6 ½f last out than 6, CD 2/0-1-1

7 – TRACK MATE – has a +LP if the 14 doesn’t scratch in, TLRSP# in his last with huge upgrade in 1st dirt race

8 – CALIFORNIA TWIRL – left arrow horse, three works since debut, the last two were very nice

1 – WADSWORTH (AE) – going long the first time, 30% winner for tr Brad Cox vs 24% overall, alpha angle, the last two were very good, including bullet

3 – FRANK’S HONOR

13 – RUNGIUS

 

Race 6 – 7 Furlongs, 46 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Rail little penalty, 2/3 fair, 4-7 little penalty, 8+ bonus and best

9 – SHOPLIFTER – drops from NGSTK 125k, better than it looks on paper with better 2/4#s

11 – FREE DROP MADDY – drops in class after winning NGSTK 150k at Lone Star, debut at CD was nearly as good, some OK works between races

5 – T MAX – won debut with ease, TLRSP#, bullet work since

3 – HOLIDAY DECISION – another NGSTK dropper, broke maiden at CD 2/1-0-1, some really nice CD works getting ready

2 – SANTA FE GOLD

6 – PACHUCA

 

Race 7 – 7 Furlongs, 46 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Rail little penalty, 2/3 fair, 4-7 little penalty, 8+ bonus and best

Very even race 

1 – GUN IT – left arrow horse, TLRSP#, CD 9/1-4-1, Distance 5/1-3-1

6 – HEART RHYTHM – off since early July, last two works were very fast, CD 4/0-0-3, due

7 – ROBO MAN – broke his maiden at CD with the best CD#, run back to that race and he wins again

10 – MAJOR FED – hard to ignore back class for this Kentucky Derby runner, most recent work hints he might recapture form and usually runs well off the bench like today

3 – HIDDEN SCROLL

9 – READY TO POUNCE

4 – SURVEILLANCE

 

Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, 46 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Rail little penalty, 2/3 fair, 4-7 little penalty, 8+ bonus and best

2 – IPSUM GRATUS – has some of most late pace, dropping multiple classes, best CD#s

7 – CYCOLOGIST – has a 7f win at CD in two tries, Z pattern last out, fast track 6/1-0-3

8 – SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI – dropping multiple classes, 30% winner for tr Genaro Garcia 16/53

9 – FORGOT PASSWORD – usually don’t care for MCL risers, but the 2 runs at CD were better than what all the others left produced

10 – INSPEIGHTFUL

6 – PAPPYSAYSYES

Churchill Downs Pace Worksheet

Churchill Downs Pace Worksheet 9-15-22

 

 

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