Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Churchill Downs Full Card Picks
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Gulfstream Park
Picks with the Professor’s Play of the Day
Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Race 1
2 – Justin’s Quest – Came in from Colonial Downs after winning by 6-lenghts to finish a disappointing 5th but drops in class today and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Dr. Forman – Comes in from Hawthorne to try Churchill Downs for the first time arriving with the best career stats finishing in the money 61% of his starts, winning 27% of the races.
4 – Money for Mischief – He experienced quite of a bit of trouble in his last race so throw it out. He has finished in the money in five races out of ten starts at Churchill Downs, winning one.
3 – Rye Humor – He was bumped in his last race and finished 4th, drops in class for today’s race and has Smokin Joe Talamo in the irons who has been hot lately.
Alternate:
6 – Improbable Story
1 – Wherewegoin
Race 2
6 – Strobe – He won his second career race in a row in Kentucky going for a hat trick and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Higher Standard – He has finished in the money in three races out of three starts at Churchill Downs, winning one and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Knocker Down – He was doing well on the dirt and then tried turf in his last race and did not appear to like it, so he now returns to the dirt and has a new trainer.
7 – Surfer Dude – He has finished in the money in four races out of five starts at Churchill Downs, winning two and has a good 5f ft 1:00¨ B 8/38 on 04Nov.
Alternate:
1 – Spankster
2 – Steinbeck
Race 3
3 – Miss Peabody – She is a deep closer who has finished in the money in both her career races, finishing 3rd in his last race and received the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Ghostly Girl – She has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when going Sprint-Sprint-Route and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Inside Girl – She is a first-time starter and is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by jockey Florent Geroux.
11 – Guns n’ Lilies – She has an early foot and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
12 – Undoubtedly
Race 4
11 – Towing – She finished 2ndi n his last two race.
9 – Seven Scents – She finished 3rd in his last race.6 – Petit Verdot – He won his last race at Keenland.
1 – Spycraft – His Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – C C’s Kitten – He won his last race at Presque Downs.
Race 5
6 – Shes All Woman – She is a winning machine having won four races in a row at Gulfstream Park and comes into Churchill Downs to win her fifth race in a row.
4 – Longleggedlaverne – She comes in from Horseshoe Indianapolis after winning five races in a row by going to the front and will try and do the same at Churchill Downs.
9 – Invaluable – She likes to sit right behind the leaders and close in the stretch to clip the leaders and adds blinkers for this race to keep her mind on business.
2 – Teller to Sing – She has won three races out of the last four races.
Alternate:
8 – Hashtag Lucky
3 – No More Mask
Race 6
10 – Iywaan – He has finished in the money in 75% of his starts, winning 38% of the races during his career and he has a good 4f ft :49¨ B 4/13 on 02Nov.
1 – Bless the Kitten – He ran 2nd in his last start and has a good jockey.
8 – Time for Trouble – He has won three out of the last four races and will be closing to try and win.
2 – Moment– He won last race at Hawthorne.
Alternate:
7 – Souper Catch
Race 7
5 – Judy’s Way – She always seems to be in the mix, finishing in the money in six of her last six races, winning the last race.
3 – Good Fight – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Misty Veil – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (5 3-1-0).
8 – Out of Sorts – She won her last race at Parx and has the Highest last race speed rating.
Race 8
7 – Beverly Park – He has won three races out of five at Churchill Downs, winning almost ½ of a million dollars in his career.
2 – The Wolfman – He has won three races in a row and comes in from Laurel Park to try Churchill Downs for the first time.
8 – Hero Tiger – He is a winning machine having won five races in a row at Horseshoe Indianapolis and with his early foot will try and lead all the way.
4 – Joyful Heart – He has won five races out of the six races, finishing 2nd in his last race.
Race 9
6 – Family Man– He has finished in the money in five out of five starts at Churchill Downs winning four of the starts and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – No Burn – He has finished in the money in 70% of his starts, winning 41% of the races during his career and has a bullet workout on 28Oct at Bel tr.t 5f ft 1:00ª B 1/20.
1 – Ragtime Blues – He finished in the money in eight races out of the nine races this year, winning four of the starts.
9 – Lt. Junior Grade – He won his last race at Keenland, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
12 – The Queens Jules
8 – So Dialed In
Race 10
5 – Intrepid Heart – He ran 2nd in his last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Calibrator – He finished 3rd in his last race and has a good 5F workout on Nov-04.
7 – Tiz Rye Time – He won his last race at Keenland, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Keystone Field – He won last race at Keenland.
Alternate:
8 – Decision Maker
Race 11
9 – Big Agenda – He won his last race and has a good 4F workout on Nov-05.
4 – Onenightstandards – He is having a good year finishing in the money in 100% of his starts, winning 33% of the races.
16 – Palace Coup – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Carom – He has a trainer who wins 40 % of the races in the 2nd after a claim
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed and fair PPs
2 – JUSTIN’S QUEST – Lone E horse with the most early speed, TLRSP# and drops in class
3 – RYE HUMOR – drops a little, 11f of works since last race
6 – IMPROBABLE STORY – was a ton better late in his last, 5/2-2-0 if track remains off
4 – MONEY FOR MISCHIEF – might be better in his third race after a layoff
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with 1-7 fair, 8+ penalty
6 – STROBE – really should be able to control the race from start to finish
5 – HIGHER STANDARD – was considerably better in the first half mile in his last race and has 4 works between races
7 – SURFER DUDE – likes the track, 5/2-0-2, no wins in 7 elsewhere and has two decent CD works since last effort
1 – SPANKSTER – walked up the finish ladder in his last, usually a good sign a horse is improving
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers with inside 3 penalty
4 – GHOSTLY GIRL – lone P horse going long for the 1st time, two decent works between races and well bet in both starts
3 – MISS PEABODY – will be flying late, deep field will require a good trip, +++/LP edge
11 – GUNS N’ LILIES – could be lone speed in a race full of closers
10 – INSIDE GIRL –decent works for a tr Brad Cox
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf (Off) – Bias: No Races
1 – SPYCRAFT – all or nothing horse at the distance 7/4-0-0, 2 bullet works in last three at CD training track top EP/LP combo
11 – TOWING – is the lone closer and first time gelded making his second start after more than a year off
6 – PETIT VERDOT ARTIE – tough call over the 9, but tends to makes a strong mid move, key in a short sprint
9 – SEVEN SCENTS – was much better late in his last despite being bumped
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers with inside 3 penalty
4 – LONGLEGGEDLAVERNE – jy Joseph Ramos and tr Tianna Richardville won 4/6 ITM 5/6, +1.83 ROI
6 – SHES ALL WOMAN – numbers are superior to all the rest, but no CD works, track can be tricky
7 – DESTINY’S DARLING – has a +2/4f EP edge, CD 3/0-2-0, very consistent performer, high floor low ceiling
9 – INVALUABLE – was much better early in his last race, should be better in 2nd race off the claim for tr Michael Maker, 3rd off the bench
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed and fair PPs
2 – MOMENT – 1 of 2 Left Arrow Horses, can be dominant late at times
10 – IYWAAN – 1 of 2 Left Arrow Horse, ITM 16/17 last races, TLRSP# and smoked in the first ½ mile of last race
1 – BLESS THE KITTEN – lone E horse in a field of pressure and closers, will be dangerous if he gets the lead
7 – SOUPER CATCH – good work on an off track, 8/3-3-0
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf (Off) – Only 1 race so far, won off the pace form 2/3
9 – BYE BYE BERTIE – LS – Left arrow horse that’s been facing tougher company and won easily the last four times she ran at this level
1 – MISTY VEIL – could be forwardly placed in the fist start off the claim for tr Chris Hartman
8 – OUT OF SORTS – was better ATB in her last race with TLRSP# and makes her first start off the claim for tr Robert Mosco
14 – WORLD OF WONDER – benefits from the scratches and should be forwardly placed
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: 50/50 Tactical Speed slight inside 3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8 + fair
7 – BEVERLY PARK – is neck away from winning four in a row, robust on an off track 11/4-4-1
2 – THE WOLFMAN – ran similar fractions though the fist half mile at 7f vs 6f
9 – THIRSTY BETRAYAL – lone PC horse in a field that is loaded with front end speed, recent resume says improvement in 3rd off the bench
12 – DON’T FORGET – better EP# in first half mile of his last race, hoping for a little more improvement today
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2-7 best, rail and 8+ penalty
6 – FAMILY MAN – horse for the Churchill course 5/4-1-0, resume says better in 2nd off the bench
2 – DIVINE LEADER – lone off track run was his bt, should be involved from start to finish
9 – LT. JUNIOR GRADE – not all that far from winning five of last 6, TLRSP#, big pop, worried about regression but same race = another win
10 – ALEXANDROS – left arrow horse making third off the bench, won 3rd race in last 3 race cycle
Race 10: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Barbell Bias, Rail and 8+ bias, 2/3 underperform
5 – INTREPID HEART – loves to run 2nd, six in the last seven races, 19f works since last race, top EP/LP Combo
7 – TIZ RYE TIME – another that should step up in the 3rd off the break, CD 6/0-4-1
1 – BENEVENGO – has a +EP edge at 4f, been off since late September, tr Jesus Cruz win 30%
6 – DIGITAL – has one of the best EPLP combos, off 4/2-1-0
Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles Turf (Off) – Only 1 race so far, won off the pace form 2/3
1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed and fair PPs
16 – PALACE COUP – TLRSP# and drops off the win, off track 3/2-1-0
9 – BIG AGENDA – 3rd off the break should be a little better than the first two, never on off dirt, but turf could translate
4 – ONENIGHTSTANDARDS – just missed the last time he ran of dirt after moving from the turf, consistent performer
5 – UNDERDRESSED – tough call over 15, but we are going with the lone PC horse that has some LP
15 – SHADY MCGEE –
Churchill Downs’ Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 1-8)
Churchill Downs’ Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 9, 10, 11)
