Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Churchill Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis
Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Admission Office – If bad weather does not take this race off the turf, then this is the top choice as his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey who in last 7 days has this record (25 7-4-4).
4 – Fenwick Station – He won his last race at Keenland and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Henley’s Joy – He finished 3rd in last race on the turf at Santa Anita and returns to run at Churchill Downs to try to win a race.
5 – Big Dreaming – He has won one of two starts at Churchill Downs, his best turf speed is close to the Avg winning speed and jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 3-2-0).
Alternate:
8 – Silver Dust -He has done well on an off track, drops in class today and has a good 5F workout (May-18)
7 – Pirate’s Punch – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Race 2
2 – Hearns – He switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey, has a trainer who wins 60% of the time when he drops a horse off a claim, blinkers are added today and his Jockey in last 7 days has this record (25 7-4-4).
7 – Joyful Candy– He finish 2nd in the race before the last one, went up in class and finished 6th and now drops in class today where he could be competitive – The trainer wins 20% of the time when he drops a horse 2+ classes and his best dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Lake Tahoe – He has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
4 – East of India – The connections paid 85K for East of India, he has several workouts that are decent especially April 24th and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
3 – Congrats to Mi
6 – Make My Own Luck
Race 3
1 – Towhead – First time starter – Her breeding suits today’s sprint distance, the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days that has this record (8 3-1-0) and she has a bullet 4F workout (May-20). 1A – Les Bon Temps – First time starter – Her Dam has one winner from one starter and a decent 4F workout (May-19).
5 – Mo Bonita – First time starter – Her Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters, and she has a good workout on 11May Kee 4f ft :48 Bg2/31.
2 – Fun Money – First time starter – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (7 4-0-2) and she has a good 4F workout on 20May CD 4f ft :48.4 B 32/85.
4 – Song of Storms – First time starter – She has decent workouts.
Alternate:
6 – Catherine Blaze
7 – Frango Electrico
Race 4
6 – Strong Embrace – She closed on the turf at a mile to finished 2nd and stretches out to 1-1/16 which is just what she needs – Her trainer wins 22% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and she has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days that has this record (8 3-1-0).
5 – Bella Conchita – She drops in class today, has a High % winning Jockey and her trainer wins 50% of the time the 1st time his entry goes in a claiming race.
4 – Silky Warrior – She drops in class today; her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 3-2-0).
9 – Hal’s Dream – She shows that she can perform on the turf winning one of two starts and she is returning to the turf where her best turf speed is close to the Avg winning speed – Lasix is added and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-0-2).
Alternate:
10 – World of Wonder
12 – Ipsum Gratus
Race 5
6 – Little Mombo – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, earning the highest last race speed rating. – The shorter distance will help, and she has a good 4F workout (May-14).
5 – Twentytwenty Hoax – She tried turf in her last race and did not seem to like it and figures to improve while returning to dirt -She is eligible to improve in the 2nd start since a layoff and she may improve at the shorter distance.
3 – Ladybelucky – Her last race was her 4th place finish in a row, but she has a bullet workout on 14May CD 3f ft :35.4 B 1/23 which could mean she is ready to fire today.
7 – Divine Hope – First time starter who has two great workouts in a row.
Alternate:
1 – Maggie E
2 – Sha Girl
Race 6
6 – Frills – She has won four races in a row, the last win at Churchill Downs earning the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 42% of the races when bringing the winner of their last race back to race again – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (25 7-4-4).
4 – Summer Storm – She finished 3rd in her last race at Oaklawn Park and has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when horse is in the 2nd race after claiming the horse.
9 – Copper Charm – She has won two races in a row going for a hat trick and the trainer wins 50% of the time with a horse’s 1st start with the trainer.
7 – Invaluable – She ran 2nd in her last race at Oaklawn Park, winning the one before – The trainer wins 23% of the time in the 3rd race off a layoff and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
3 – Delta Gamma Cats
5 – Destiny’s Darling
Race 7
1 – R Calli Kim – She has finished in the money four out of six races on the turf – The trainer wins 20% of the time when shipping a horse in to race and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (25 7-4-4).
4 – Good Measure – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race closing at a 1-1/16 and stretches out to a 1-1/8 which should help him.
5 – Scarabea – She has run in a couple of 1-1/2 races without embarrassing herself so she could do well in this contest as she has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Ensemble – She came in from Europe and ran 3rd in her first race in the USA and can improve in 2nd start since layoff.
Alternate:
2 – Queen Bourbon
3 – Designer Ready
Race 8
8 – Scattershack – He is dropping in class, the trainer wins 17% of the races when going from a Maiden to Maiden Claiming race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and Smokin Joe Talamo is in the irons.
7 – My Favorite Uncle – He is a deep closer who finished 2nd in two of the last three races, switches to a high % jockey and has a trainer/jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
6 – Luckman – He has been competing in turf races without success and returns to dirt where he does better and drops in class today.
1 – My Brother Cam – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
3 – Rerally
5 – Heston
Rich’s Ranks
It is supposed to be wet, maybe very wet, handicapping for off dirt and no turf, although POWs will reflect listed race surface.
Race 1 – 1 1/16 miles turf, 9 races, 4 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: rail has performed 2x as well as it should, 2/3 have underperformed, 4-7 fair, 8+ is a bonus
8 – SILVER DUST – his last win came on a sloppy track, 5/1-1-1 on a wet track and has some solid EP
2 – SPRAWL – last two on wet tracks, ¾ a length from winning both
5 – BIG DREAMING – hasn’t tried an off track yet, but has a win and a third in two on fast dirt
1 – BACKGROUND – been on a off track five times with a win and two seconds, one the rail with good early speed and usually gets off to a fast start
6 – ADMISSION OFFICE
4 – FENWICK STATION
7 – PIRATE’S PUNCH
Race 2 – 6 furlongs, 29 races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: rail has 1 win, stay away, 2/3 underperform, 4-7 a little better than average and 8+ gets the biggest bonus
4 – EAST OF INDIA – only purse MSW to MCL dropper in the field, flashed some EP in last, first Gelded, 2nd lasix
5 – LAKE TAHOE – TLRSP# and drops in class, was a little better with 2/4 pace#s,
7 – JOYFUL CANDY – better ¼ and ½ fractions in last before calling it a night in his last, resume says he could offer more in 2nd run off the sidelines
2 – HEARNS – 1st off the claim for tr Norm Casse, debut speed number tops for any race for any other horse, 2nd race, ooh was bad, drops looks suspicious but 30K purse and 10k to claim, if he wins and is claimed, very profitable
6 – MAKE MY OWN LUCK
1 – SHACKLESFLY
Race 3 – 5 furlongs, 5 races, 4/5 won by speed, 4 w2w -PP: 2 winners, the other 2 won from 2/3 and 1 4-7
5 – MO BONITA – 200K horse with the best series of works
2 – FUN MONEY – has solid works and rides the rail that’s won 2/5 races at the distance
1 – TOWHEAD – both the 1 and 1a have fast works, the 1 is a 100K horse so he gets the call over the 1A
1A – LES BON TEMPS
3 – CHIQUITA MOSCA – of the other inside 3 starters, has better works than the 4 (PP3)
4 – SONG OF STORMS
Race 4 – 1 1/16 miles turf, 9 races, 4 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: rail has performed 2x as well as it should, 2/3 have underperformed, 4-7 fair, 8+ is a bonus
12 – IPSUM GRATUS – best speed number was on an off track at Churchill
6 – STRONG EMBRACE – finished no worse than third in any race, moved closer to the front in her last, better EP and LP #s
5 – BELLA CONCHITA – first claiming go, tr Cherie DeVaux winner 4/8 for a +5.50 ROI
11 – MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN – lone win came on a good track with a wire to wire win, gets a 7-13 lb wight break versus all the others
10 – WORLD OF WONDER
4 – SILKY WARRIOR
Race 5 – 5 ½ furlongs, 3 races, 2/3 won by speed, 0 w2w -PP: 1 from the rail, 1 from 4-7 and 1 8+
6 – LITTLE MOMBO – TLRSP# and is highly consistent with pace#s, one run on a good surface, had the lead late, 2 good works since
3 – LADYBELUCKY – has been well bet in all four of her races, 4 different tracks, this is the first at CD – Mike Smith how a horse trains at CD – 3 f in 35.4 is fast
not much to beat behind the top two, going with the first time starters
4 – LAMASCO – good works and John Court has been lighting it up
2 – SHA GIRL – similar works to the 7, but we’ll go with smoking Joe and 65K horse
7 – DIVINE HOPE
5 – TWENTYTWENTY HOAX
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 29 races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: rail has 1 win, stay away, 2/3 underperform, 4-7 a little better than average and 8+ gets the biggest bonus
6 – FRILLS – won five of her last six starts, 5/3-1-1 on an off track, CD 3/2-1-0 and TLRSP#
4 – SUMMER STORM – 2nd off the claim for trainer Chris Hartman – 33% winner vs 8% overall, Denzel at CD 5/1-0-3
3 – DELTA GAMMA CATS – better LP#, was the betting favorite vs top pick in last 2, strong at the distance 9/4-3-0 and 3/0-3-0 on a wet track
7 – INVALUABLE – first race back with trainer Robertino Diodoro as they moved him back to the RD barn after being claimed, won two back in only race in RD barn with jy David Cohen riding
9 – COPPER CHARM
5 – DESTINY’S DARLING
Race 7 – 1 3/8 miles Turf, no races
2 – QUEEN BOURBON – LS – ran better times last out, could be better in her 3rd start after a layoff, one race on sloppy track, was at CD 2nd by a length
13 – HIGH FASHION – four efforts on an off track, including a 2nd at CD – 4/1-3-0, ran some of her fastest fractions last out and probably moves forward in 2nd off the bench
5 – SCARABEA – TLRSP# and drops for a G1 – has two outing on TFWY all weather, should be able to handle an off track
8 – ENSEMBLE – ran on AW in England, these horses usually aren’t afraid to run in the rain, been facing tougher than what she sees here
9 – STEPPER
1 – R CALLI KIM
6 – MY SWEET STORY
10 – MET IN MIAMI
Race 8 – 1 mile, 9 races, 8/9 won by speed, just 1 w2w -PP: stay away from 1-3, just 1 win, 4-7 dominating, one win 8+
8 – SCATTERSHACK – ran in MSW in 11/12 races, the lone MCL was 50K, higher than today, finished 2nd by ¾ length
1 – MY BROTHER CAM – not a fan of the rail, but he is the only horse in the field that’s been on the lead past the ¼ mile marker – could get to the lead on EZ fractions
7 – MY FAVORITE UNCLE – not a fan here either of horse that’s failed to win in MCL vs a field of MSW droppers, but is the only in the field with ITM runs on wet 4/0-1-1
4 – SEVEN FLAT – numbers are horrible, but has by far best SP# on mud, dropping 2 classed – 26% angle for trainer Ron Moquett
10 – PUDGE BOY PALACE
5 – HESTON
6 – LUCKMAN
