Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Colonial Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s PARX Best Bet
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day –
Full Picks YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOvn7i9DEjQ&feature=youtu.be
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis
Colonial Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Rambert – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race for the third time in a row, has the highest last race and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Fashionista – She is a closer and finished in the money in five out of eight starts this year.
4 – C J ‘s Cat Five – She showed speed in her last race so the shorter distance offers hope for improvement.
8– Imaginthekiss – Returning to a sprint may help.
Race 2
1 – Scoober – He is a first-time starter whose trainer wins 32% of the time in sprints and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-1-2).
7 – Genius – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 and has decent workouts.
3 – Spritzer – He has improved his speed ratings in each of the last three races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Giro d’Oro – He drops in class today and has a good workout on July 17th..
Alternate:
5 – Bloke
Race 3
4 – Inhalation – He has won two out of two starts at Colonial Downs and ran 2nd in her last race at Churchill Downs – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a trainer who wins 22% of the time in allowance races.
2 – County Final – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in his last race as the favorite, has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and should improve at the shorter distance.
6 – Ship It Red – He has highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on July-25th.
5 – Manny Wah – His trainer wins 18% of the Turf races he has a horse entered in.
Race 4
1 – Swift Dancer – He ran 3rd at Tampa Bay Downs and has taken a 3-month break but has been working out steadily having two bullet workouts in a row for his return to the races.
5 – North Bay – He switches to a high % jockey, drops in class today and his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters and 2 Turf winners.
8 – Baileys Run – His trainer wins 31% of the time when moving a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race, he should improve while returning to a sprint and blinkers added today.
7 – Small Field – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Justcuzifeellikeit
2 – He Is Bonafide
Race 5
9 – Osa – She won her last race at Colonial Downs and can handle the distance.
6 – Tea in China – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
1 – C C’s Freedom – She has finished in the money in three of the last four races, winning one of the races and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Tiz Nena – She drops in class today and has a decent workout.
Alternate:
4 – Bionda Surprise
Race 6
9 – Conundrum Queen – She has won three of the last four races, drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey – She figures to improve while returning to the Turf and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Beach House – She won her last race at Colonial Downs and high % winning jockey Joseph Rocco, Jr. returns to ride again.
5 – Chick’s Shadow – She won her last race at Tampa Bay Downs and comes back to Colonial Downs where she is one for one.
2 – Foggy Dreams– She drops in class today and her jockey Jorge Ruiz is winning at a 43% clip at this meet.
Alternate:
3 – Starry Hope
Race 7
5 – Red Wind – She won her last race at Colonial Downs, has a High % winning Jockey and she has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
2 – Mastering Bela – She drops in class today; the shorter distance offers hope for improvement, and she has two bullet workouts in a row.
6 – Princess Cora – She has the highest last race speed rating, has a trainer who wins 31% of the time when shipping a horse in to race and a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-1-2).
9 – Lady Noy – She won her last race at Tampa Bay Downs.
Alternate:
8 – Cheerful Chimes
Race 8
6 – Ultimate Irony – He has finished in the money in four of his last five, winning one at Pimlico and has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Better Think Twice – He has won two of the last three races, drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
9 – Down Cold – He drops in class today and has a couple of decent workouts.
2 – Mean Machine – He drops in class today and has a good jockey.
Alternate:
7 – My Way Or No Way
11 – Space Odessey
Race 9
6 – Best Chance Yet – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Jama Dillon – He ran 4th in his last race after coming into the stretch 4-wide and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Odds and Ends – He has finished in the money in 60% of his career races, winning 20% of the races and drops in class today for this race.
11 – Billingsgate – He finished 4th beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs tougher in last start and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
5 – Tapit to the Wire
1 – Run Lea Run
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 15 races, 9 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 2-7 underperform, 8+ major bonus
3 – RAMBERT – been close three in a row, three bullet works since her last, hate the 1-1 odds, love the horse to win – Top EP and LP in the field – the rest are running for 2nd
4 – C J ‘S CAT FIVE
6 – FASHIONISTA
2 – CALL ME PENNY
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 11 races, 7 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: rail slight bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 bonus, no winners 8+
1 – SCOOBER – good works getting ready, Larry Rivelli horse, does well with 1st timers and maidens
7 – GENIUS – I wanted to put this one in the top spot, good Colonial works and improving, but tr Thomas Vance struggles win
3 – SPRITZER – TLRSP# and has the top EP#s with a + advantage, if she still has the lead after the ½, has a chance -if not, going to fade hard
5 – BLOKE
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 15 races, 9 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 2-7 underperform, 8+ major bonus
4 – INHALATION – two for two on Colonial grass, tie TLRSP#, race looked a lot like CLN wins
2 – COUNTY FINAL – has a +2f edge and a little bigger +edge at 4f, but tends to fade in the lane
1 – SMOKIN’ JAY – this and the 6 are similar on paper, but the 1 has been running at tier 1 tracks and the 6 tier 2
6 – SHIP IT RED
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 15 races, 9 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 2-7 underperform, 8+ major bonus
5 – NORTH BAY – EP with 1st Lasix, MSW dropper, a little better in opening ¼ last out
7 – SMALL FIELD – has a + LP advantage and has the some EP ability too, PPs say likely to be better in 3rd after a layoff
1 – SWIFT DANCER – been off since late April, has a lot of juice out of the gate, a lot of good CLN works including a pair of bullet works getting ready
8 – BAILEYS RUN – taking the MSW to MCL dip, trainer Anthony Granitz hits at 32% on the Tom Carley drop
Race 5 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 13 races, 8 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: inside 3 penalty, 4+ slight bonus
6 – TEA IN CHINA – left arrow horse with the top LP in the field and should be close to the front, drops CLN 5/0-1-3
5 – HIGH ARABIAN – also a left arrow horse, moving down in class, get top CLN jock Victor Carrasaco winning at 30%. CLN 2/1-1-0
8 – RUNNING ON ENTRY – maiden win came in 3rd after a layoff, like today, was best of 3 race cycle and was at 1 mile
11 – BYEGONE DAYS – CLN 6/0-2-1, elsewhere 18/1-2-1, turf 14/1-4-1 with top SP#, 0-10 on any other surface,
Race 6 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 13 races, 8 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: inside 3 penalty, 4+ slight bonus
1 – BEACH HOUSE – is a horse for the course winning 3 of 3, nothing in 4 elsewhere, stretching out after running sprints in 6 races, debut was at 1 mile but bombed and then was off a year
7 – WAYWARDNESS – ran better times at 1 1/16 miles inner turf than 1 mile outer turf, might be even better in race 3 after a layoff, never made it 3 races before
5 – CHICK’S SHADOW – another that ran faster last out and will look to improve on that in her 3rd off the sidelines, much better ATB
9 – CONUNDRUM QUEEN – ships in from GP, likes the distance 3/2-1-0, all on grass, resume says expect a nice effort in 2nd race off the break
Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 15 races, 9 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 2-7 underperform, 8+ major bonus
5 – RED WIND – won her last in her first try at CLN, drops in class, cutting back in distance might hurt
6 – PRINCESS CORA – probably the most consistent runner in the field, Eddie C angle, Rivelli and Loveberry rolling at CLN – ITM 7/10
9 – LADY NOY – left arrow horse – comes in GP, TB, MON, best recent work has been in short, turf sprints
1 – TRUE ATKA – with the 10 scratched, the 1 has a +LP edge on this group
Race 8 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 13 races, 8 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: inside 3 penalty, 4+ slight bonus
6 – ULTIMATE IRONY – tends to run his best after some rest like today, 3SP# increases, TLRSP# and drops in class
9 – DOWN COLD – drops in class for tr Steve Asmussen, Eddie C angle, stronger effort in first ½ mile in last
5 – BETTER THINK TWICE – left arrow horse – 2 for 2 at the distance, big drop in class, 3rd off the bench
10 – SPERLE
Race 9 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 15 races, 9 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 2-7 underperform, 8+ major bonus
6 – BEST CHANCE YET – down in class, consistently runs best #s for this group, Denzel at CLN 5/0-2-1 and distance 6/0-3-1
7 – JAMA DILLON – TLRSP# much better pace through the turn, most important # in short sprints, another Denzel at the distance 8/1-4-0
11 – BILLINGSGATE – left arrow horse, better times early in last, 3SP# increases, slighter better ATB in last
4 – BOLD TREK – went to the front last out for the first time in his last 10, substantial improvement for first ½ miles, lets see if he does it again and holds on this time
Colonial Downs Pace Worksheet
Colonial Downs Pace Worksheet 8-2-22
