Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
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Colonial Downs Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Chenti – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at today’s distance and has improved his speed rating in each of the last three races.
2 – Breakwater – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Qaader – A closer who just missed two races back at today’s distance.
6– Elusive – He switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Motanaafer
4 – Jahez
Race 2
5 – Elevated Forever – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and appears to be the only speed in the race and can go all the way on the lead.
6 – Higher Authority – He closed to finish 3rd vs similar in his last race and is one for one at today’s distance.
3 – Forevamo – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race receiving the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Stunning Baby – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
1 – Zonic
Race 3
6 – Magnolia Road – She finished 5th in her last race as the favorite after coming very wide into the stretch, but she has a trainer who wins 26% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Packer Girl – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 21% of the time in maiden claiming races.
2 – Wi Fi – She has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
3 – Luna’s Treasure – She drops in class today to try to become competitive.
Alternate:
9 – Satisfied
8 – Suwannee Chick
Race 4
5 – Community Adjusted – She finished 3rd in her last race at Saratoga and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Flying Fortress – She ran 2nd in her last race only beaten a neck and has a good workout on 26Aug.
3 – Go Big Blue Nation – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey; her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-20.
6 – Unadulterated – The blinkers are taken off and the trainer wins 31% of the races when taking the blinkers off and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-20.
Alternate:
2 – Longpants Required
1 – Star Rules
Race 5
1 – La Tache – She finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in her last race, drops in class today may improve while trying grass and her trainer in the last 14 days has this record (13 6-4-0).
2 – Replicated – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best turf speed is the fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Push – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and her trainer wins 20% of the races in debut turf races.
6 – Next Episode – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start, heavily bet in debut and switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Saenger Star
Race 6
7 – Practical Sense – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, may improve with Lasix added and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (13 6-4-0).
2 – Wonder Water – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Civics Class – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on Turf) in last race and drops in class today.
9 – Bruce Banner – He drops in class today and may improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
6 – Calipari
Race 7
6 – Justin’s Quest – She finished 2nd in her last race at Colonial Downs, switches to a high % wnning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 7-3-2), has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Mean Machine – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at Colonial Downs and will be closing from deep to try and win the race.
7 – Honor My World – She Won her last race at Laurel and has a good workout on Aug. 26th.
8 – Barahin – She Ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Colonial Downs only missing by a neck.
Alternate:
3 – Blue Bonzai
4 – McQueen’s Bullitt
Race 8
1 – Tolaga Bay – He won last race at Colonial Downs and has a good 3F workout on Aug-24.
5 – Dreamin of Seville – He finished 3rd in his last race receiving the highest last race speed rating, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 7-3-2).
2 – Votethemallout – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Colonial Downs and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Prioritization – He has finished in the money in 50% of his career races and may improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
6 – Sorolla
7 – Spritzer
Race 9
3 – Morena Dancer – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Countessoflovelace – She drops in class today; the rail post is winning at 22% clip and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 7-3-2).
2 – Lizqueenfluerdelis – She finished 4th in her last start and jockey Loveberry returns to ride.
4 – First Lady Di Da – She drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters
Alternate:
9 – Bashful Marie
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 42 races, 23 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: penalty 1-3, 8+, 4-7 major edge
2 – BREAKWATER – has a ++ EP edge at 2/4 furlongs, is a left arrow PC horse, TLRSP# and could be better in 3rd start off the bench, 3 strong works between races
3 – CHENTI – just missed in his last after running a little better fractions, CLN Grass 2/0-1-1
1 – QAADER – has some superior LP#s since moving to grass in his last two starts.
6 – ELUSIVE – may not look like it on paper, but has some of the most EP in the race and the top LP#s to boot
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 7 races, 6 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: huge rail edge, 4/7 winners, 2-7 fair, no winners 8+
5 – ELEVATED FOREVER – should be close to the front, ran better fractions in last race, was much better late
6 – HIGHER AUTHORITY – just missed vs the top pick in last, extra distance helps here?
3 – FOREVAMO – has a ++LP advantage, TLRSP# and drops in class, 3rd after a layoff
1 – ZONIC – tough call over the 7 as they both are similar in my book, we’ll take the 20-1 odds and 9/1-3-3 at the distance
7 – STUNNING BABY
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 37 Races, 22 won off the pace, 6 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, inside out bias
6 – MAGNOLIA ROAD – BTN FAV, trainer Antonio Sano rebounds at 26% next time around the track
2 – WI FI – is one of the few class droppers in the field, TLRSP#, much better 2/4f #s in last
7 – PACKER GIRL – just missed at this level last out on the MSW drop, expecting more in 3rd career start
1 – RIGHT TO ASSEMBLE – left arrow horse, was decently bet in debut, gets 22% winning rail
Race 4 – 1 1/8 Miles Outer Turf, 5 races, 3 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: None from rail, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 a little under par, 8+ major edge
4 – FLYING FORTRESS – is a neck away from winning 3 of 4 races, bullet work on Aug 26th say she’ll be ready again, top LP#s
5 – COMMUNITY ADJUSTED – track dropper from NYRA for tr Christophe Clement, will be flying late too
6 – UNADULTERATED – could get alone on the lead and would be hard to beat with the lead in the stretch
3 – GO BIG BLUE NATION – best on turf would be enough to smoke this group, jy tr combo of Carrasco and Motion winner of 3/6
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 52 races, outside in bias 8+ bonus, 4-7 fair, 2/3 discount, rail penalty
6 – NEXT EPISODE – LS -missed the start in her debut as the $1.60 favorite, still TLRSP#, decent works since
1 – LA TACHE – MSW dropper, tr Michael Stidham 27% on the Tom Carley drop, don’t care for the rail, bullet work, should be the winner
3 – PUSH – bullet and go debuter, tr Jason McCuthen hits at 15% with first time starters
2 – REPLICATED – was better ATB in first go on turf, way better fractions
Race 6 – 1 Mile, 6 races, 5 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: all winners 4-7
7 – PRACTICAL SENSE – MSW dropper, gets 1st Lasix, has top LP, Top Pedigree for turf
9 – BRUCE BANNER – another MSW dropper, has enough EP to run his race, much better fractions in last, limited resume says expect a nice move forward today
4 – CIVICS CLASS – small drop, has some EP, maybe better in R2 off the sidelines
2 – WONDER WATER – hard call over the 6, better numbers, drops in class, distance 5/0-2-1
6 – CALIPARI
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 37 Races, 22 won off the pace, 6 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, inside out bias
6 – JUSTIN’S QUEST – BB – has a ++ 4f pace advantage, TLRSP#, distance 2/0-2-0, better ATB in last
8 – BARAHIN – left arrow horse, a neck from being undefeated in 2 at Colonial, PPs say he’ll run a similar race today
2 – MEAN MACHINE – versatile PC horse, much stronger late in his last, solid at the distance 5/1-0-2
1 – SUPER E – strong rail bias, gets a weight break, has the most late pace, 3 SP# increases
Race 8 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 42 races, 23 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: penalty 1-3, 8+, 4-7 major edge
1 – TOLAGA BAY – CNL 7/2-3-2, elsewhere 16/0-1-5, distance 8/1-2-4
5 – DREAMIN OF SEVILLE – TLRSP#, better ATB, resume says this race should be as good as the last, CNL 3/1-2-0
4 – PRIORITIZATION – has a +4f advantage, track dropper from CD, OP, 1st off the claim for tr Lacey Gaudet, 22% angle for 17% trainer, decent works getting ready
2 – VOTETHEMALLOUT – last race was better than it looks, distance 2/1-0-1, two decent works between races – tough call over the 6
6 – SOROLLA
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 37 Races, 22 won off the pace, 6 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, inside out bias
3 – MORENA DANCER – TLRSP# and drops in class, 3sp# increases, much better times last out
9 – BASHFUL MARIE – better in the first ½ mile of last start, fractions were better at 1 1/16 miles than 1 mile
7 – HEARTBURN – race dynamics change with the 5 scratched, could be on the lead by herself and drops
2 – LIZQUEENFLUERDELIS – record says 2nd off the bench will be better than the first
Colonial Down Pace Worksheet
