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Colonial Downs Horse Racing Picks

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Horse Racing Today – Colonial Downs Picks – Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Rich’s last solo flight, he discusses…

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Colonial Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 8 races, 7 won by speed – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 bonus, 8+ no winners

5 – NOBLE PRESENT – could have the lead to herself if the 4 is rusty, a horse alone on the front can be dangerous

3 – VILLAREGGIA – probably going to take a lot of money, but resume says expect regression in round 2 off the bench

2 – TRULY A DREAM – wanted to put the 1st timer here, but the tr is 0-30 with first times and just 3 hit the board, meanwhile, she did up her speed figure in her last and might be better in the 3rd off the bench

1 – LIKES – first timer without a lot to beat

 

Race 2 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 9 races, 5 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: none from the rail, 2/3 penalty, 4+ small bonus

7 – DANNYHILL – this a no brainer if she is ready after close to a year in the barn, lone speed with a ++ EP advantage

5 – CHICA BOOM – won her last and first go around the Colonial course, soft Z with better EP and LP#s with a lull in the middle, consistent performer who should show more in her second off the break

6 – SUNNYMEDE DREAM – won her last two efforts at Colonial the 2/3 overall, should be at/near the front of the pack of closers and has some late pop too

1 – FEARLESS KITTEN – broke her maiden at Colonial, also has a and off the board run in three tries at the Virginia Track

 

Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 10 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: 0 form rail, slight discount 2-7, 8+ nice bonus – a bunch of 2 yos, anything can happen

8 – LUCIDITY – could be outside speed, looking at July 4th work of 36.2 for 3f, and then steady works 1 week later, horse stays on workout schedule +1

7 – SILENT SWINGER – June 22nd work of 36.4 at Laurel and stayed on her workout schedule too

9 – TIKI BAR – bullet and go, Barry Meadows alpha angle, probably going to get some play

6 – GULF BENDER – Larry Rivelli has two in here, Jareth Loveberry is the to go to rider in this case, decent works prepping

 

Race 4 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 9 races, 5 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: none from the rail, 2/3 penalty, 4+ small bonus

3 – STEPSTONES – better numbers in her last, short resume hints at big jump in race two after a layoff, like the bullet work between starts and upgrade to Joe Rocco, winning at 31% and 100% itm in 6 w/ tr Kelsey Danner 3.67 ROI

6 – COME WHAT MAE – debut race gets it done here, last race, 3rd start, much better in the first half mile, cut back in distance and could be ready to run back to debut form

8 – SUWANNEE CHICK – probably runs a similar race today as she did in her last, way back, rally for some excitement at the end to fill up tri/super

9 – MAGNOLIA ROAD – track dropper from Gulfstream? Been close at the end of the last 2, what’s different in try 16? Close at the end but disappoints and just not much to beat in here

 

Race 5 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 9 races, 5 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: none from the rail, 2/3 penalty, 4+ small bonus

2 – SONGWRITER – LS – GP#s are no different than the 3, not sure MSW 17 at Mountaineer is the best won – netter in the first half of his last start, w2w – going long for the first time

3 – CRAZY ODDS – really not a fan of MCL, but… ran a lot better 6f fractions at 1m70y on grass than final 6f time on GP dirt, and GP dirt is a fast surface

5 – TAPIT BRIO – last race wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper, better 2/4f numbers and drops in class today

4 – VIRGINIA FULLA – has a + LP advantage over this group, has issues three races in a row, a clean, uneventful race might be all he needs

 

Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 11 races, 9 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: small rail edge, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, no winners 8+ yet

6 – SOUPSTER – winner of 2 in a row, shout be close to the lead at the 1/2 and has the most LP

7 – MYRRH – has a + EP edge that’s close to a ++, if she runs the right fractions, she can go w2w

1 – MICK’SBESTBETYET – drops in class and gets a jockey upgrade to Victor Carrasco – hitting at 29%

5 – BOURBON RUNNER – she’s gotten better from race to race and could continue up the ladder in race 2 off the bench

8 – FASHION ICON

 

Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 20 races, 11 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside out bias

1 – ROHRBACHER – drops in class and has Colonial success 2/1-0-1, probably the leader after 6f, can he hold on? 20% winning rail helps

7 – TIL THE END – TLRSP# in a win at Penn, tr Jose D’Angelo drops here, winner 2/4 drop off the win, improved fractions last out 4/6f

5 – COLONIST – has hit the top speed number on turf, only to reach triple digits, is tied with the 7 for top LP

8 – MYSTERY BANK – does have some EP, probably sits behind the 1 and 2 and can capitalize if they go too fast or too slow

 

Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 10 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: 0 form rail, slight discount 2-7, 8+ nice bonus

9 – LONTANO – has a + LP edge, distance 7/3-3-0 all on grass, TLRSP# and Drops in class, nice works between races

6 – BALISTICO – left arrow horse, should be ready to rip in third start after a layoff – better ATB in last

7 – COOP TRIES HARDER – ran better fractions last out, more endurance and another looking to peak in race 3 off the sidelines

4 – RULING FRONT – tough call between the 4 and 1, both want the lead, but 4 has better EP#s and rail is O for 10

1 – BATTLEBUS

3 – MOTATAABEQ

 

Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 20 races, 11 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside out bias

8 – REYNA DE VERANO – just won at this level/track/distance/surface by 8 ½ lengths, big races are usually followed by another

5 – BRIGHTSIDEOFLIFE – dops in class and could take a major step forward in her 3rd start after a layoff, was by far the best in last 3 race cycle

9 – OUR SWEET PEA – if she breaks sharply or this is moved off the turf, could be lone speed and run EZ fractions – on turf the 3 could challenge for the lead

7 – FLAVA’S DREAM – TLRSP#, stretching out, does flash some superior late ability from time to time, top LP#s

Colonial Downs Pace Worksheet

Colonial Downs Pace Worksheet 7-26-2022

 

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