Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Tom and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Delaware Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
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Delaware Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Best Bet
Race 6 – 1 – John’s Promise – could take the lead or sit right behind, good runs before layoff to prepare of his track 12 starts 5 wins 6 seconds and won 4 of 9 at this distance. Rail, speed, good record, go to the winners’ circle.
Longshot
Race 3 – 6 – Consider Me – 2 races at Tampa, showed speed and backout in her first race, ran off the lead in next start but still not enough. Drop distance helps. Dam has produced 8 runs 6 wins and all of the winners won on the turf, I think this is #7
Race 1 – 7 – Mi Yayis – first race was in the mud at Lrl, problems at the start broke last but still found her footing to make a move and the go backwards. Improve today
Race 2 – 5 – Ghost Maiden – won a restricted race at Lrl, layoff and then placed against much better horses but last start ran in an OC25k running 2nd. Not starts at Del but looks tough in here
Race 3 – 6 – Consider Me – 2 races at Tampa, showed speed and backout in her first race, ran off the lead in next start but still not enough. Drop distance helps. Dam has produced 8 runs 6 wins and all of the winners won on the turf, I think this is #7
Race 4 – 3 – Stevethevandriver – claimed then layoff, came back with 2 races at Lrl with strong effort in first race back then showed speed and was tired at the end. Class relief and good run and he ends up in the winners’ circle.
Race 5 – 11 – Shoot Themessenger – drops, gelded and transfer from Mark Casse to a trainer who needs a win. The CD work of :47.4B stick out for me.
Race 6 – 1 – John’s Promise – could take the lead or sit right behind, good runs before layoff to prepare of his track 12 starts 5 wins 6 seconds and won 4 of 9 at this distance. Rail, speed, good record, go to the winners circle.
Race 7 – 8 – Unconquered Spirit – this is a step up, has shown good speed in his last 5 races, layoff with ok works coming into the first of the season. Turf record strong 5 starts 2 wins 2 second 1 third, has won off layoffs before it’s just a question of the class level but this maybe the time to catch them
Race 8 – 7 – Muchmorethanready – strong works of :48.2bg, :36B, :35.4bg. Breeding tells me very little but dam was stakes placed in her career. Good trainer Michael Stidham and gets them ready to go
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 174 races, 111 won by speed, 47 w2w -PP small rail penalty, 2+ mostly fair
3 – ILLUSION OF HOPE – was much better in the first half of her last race, producing best SP#, trainer Michael Gorham must have liked what he saw, moving up a class – 20% angle
4 – MISSPOKEN – ships in from TB after being slightly better ATB in her last
8 – CHEROKEE PARTY – last ran at Laurel, 3rd off the bench and drops to lowest level of her career
7 – MI YAYIS – was decently bet in its debut at Laurel – ok works since
Race 2 – 1 Mile, 89 races, 59 won by speed, 24 w2w -PP 1-7 mostly fair, 8+ gets a bonus
2 – BESS – like to try and beat the favorite, but his lady is 3 for 3 at Delaware, missed as the FAV, trainer Erin McClellan rebounds at 33%
1 – DARIA’S ANGEL – ITM 21/26 at the distance, but 0-2 at Delaware, a pair of robust works since her last
4 – DECOUPAGE – tr Michael Gorham winner 35% S-S-Route with 5.23 ROI, a bit concerned she may have peaked three races back, maybe the drop in class is enough to rebound
5 – GHOST MAIDEN – tough call over the 6, but better pace#s from beginning to end, both wins at the distance
6 – BIG CHEEKS
Race 3 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 11 races, 6 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 play fair, slight bonus 4-7 and way underperformance 8+
7 – SWILL MERCHANT – LS – going to take my shot here, major improvement in last at CT despite checking, ran at TB and GP before that, TLRSP# and down in class
8 – VANHOOFER – Denzel in last three, 3rd and a pair of 2nds, last race following some rest was a 2 by 1 1/4 lengths
3 – DESERT LION – ran at Belmont last out, all three races have been on muddy track, improved in each race and should take to 1st time turf
5 – TEMPLE OWL LIAM – dropping in class and from Laurel Park, decently bet in 1st race after a long layoff, a lot of room to improve here
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 95 races, 60 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: outside to inside bias
3 – STEVETHEVANDRIVER – strong work since his last race, ITM 5/7 at the distance, best 2/4f # by a long way in last and could be better in 3rd off the start
6 – NEIGH DUDE – big drop, worried he might have peaked two back, at his best wins easy
5 – CAJUN INVASION – well bet but bad in last at Parx, but 2/1-1-0 at Delaware, 2nd was by just a length
1 – ANOTHER LULU – there is the potential for a lot of early speed in here, this is the truest closer of the bunch – hoping for a pace meltdown
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 11 races, 6 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: only 1 win 2/3, 4+ outperform
11 – SHOOT THEMESSENGER – only true MSW Dropper, tr Richard Hendricks 21% winner MSW – MCL
13 – TURNPIKE MIKE – going to try grass after debuting on dirt at TB, was well bet and gets a weight break
4 – SMOOZER – ran 2nd in his last on slop, was one of his best starts, maybe translates to turf
8 – THE ZIP FACTOR – track drop from Gulfstream Park, small drop in class
Race 6 – 5 Furlongs, 38 races, 31 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: rail is almost fair, otherwise an outside in bias
1 – JOHN’S PROMISE – ITM 13/5-6-0 at Delaware, distance 9/3-4-0, TLRSP# and drops in class 12f works since last
6 – ELLAS MY LOVE – also likes Delaware 7/3-2-1, comes back from TB, should be sharp at Delaware again with a bullet work
4 – SATCHEL DE RITCHES – been running at higher levels, was much better in the first ½ mile in his last, maintenance work since
3 – SWING WEST – gets a 10 pound weight break and has some EP, tough call over the 5
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 11 races, 6 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: only 1 win 2/3, 4+ outperform
4 – CELTIC TREASURE – Jaime Rodriguez/Jamie Ness combo winning at 38%, +0.51 ROI, better ATB in his last
8 – UNCONQUERED SPIRIT – been off since October, Delaware and the Distance is good for the comeback, Delaware 4/1-2-1, distance 2/2-0-0, runs very well off the bench, a head and a nose from winning last 4 first starts off the bench
7 – INITFORTHELOVE – winner of three of the last four starts at TB, will be flying late
3 – IN EFFECT – been facing a lot tougher than he sees here, but not a lot of success, we’ll see if the big drop is the key
Race 8 – 5 Furlongs, 38 races, 31 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: rail is almost fair, otherwise an outside in bias
2 – TAPPIN JOSIE – Tr John Robb wins at 35% when Debuting at MSW and has good works
7 – MUCHMORETHANREADY – the May 10 3f work of 36 is one of the best of the bunch, next work 4f 48.2 good too
4 – SANSA ARIEL – ML favorite, 50K horse, most expensive in the field
5 – TRUE QUEEN – another horse that has some nice works and should be a price
