Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Delaware Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Churchill Downs Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Presque Isle Downs
Delaware Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Kisses for Hannah – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Delaware Park and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-0-2).
6 – El Milagra – She has won more average money per race than the other horses in the race and has a good jockey who is winning at a 17% clip.
4 – Miami Gold – She ran 3rd vs similar in her last race at Delaware Park and should improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Winningforpleasure – She has the highest last race speed rating, returning to dirt may be a plus and she drops in class today.
Alternate:
3 – Normalizeddeviance
5 – Buffum’s Beauty
Race 2
5 – Brettmeister – He won his last race at Delaware Park, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey and a trainer wins 28% of the claiming races he has a horse entered in.
2 – Tiny Tin – He finished 3rd in his last race at Delaware Park and at today’s distance which he apparently likes finishing in the money in 40% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.
4 – Tyler Time – He comes in from Pimlico, should improve while returning to the dirt and the trainer wins 21% of the races when shipping a horse in to race.
3 – Special Meister – He showed early speed in his first race back after a 3-month break probably needing that race and the trainer wins 23% of the races in the 2nd start with a horse he claimed.
Alternate:
1 – Gunhand
6 – Noble El Sid
Race 3
4 – Saratoga Commando – She comes in from Belmont Park to try Delaware Park for the first time, drops in class today, blinkers are added today, and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-19.
6 – Soulstone –She has the highest last race speed rating, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-0-1) and should improve while returning to dirt.
5 – Fabs – She is a first-time starter; her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a bullet 3F workout on Jun-18.
2 – Rona – She finished 4th in her last race after hopping at the start – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the shorter distance may help her to improve.
Alternate:
3 – Nothingmakesense
1 – Wind Tryst
Race 4
3 – Any Minute – He comes in from Belmont Park to try Delaware Park for the first time, drops in class today and the trainer wins 27% of the races when shipping a horse in to race.
6 – Diamante de Oro – He closed in his last race to finish 2nd at 5-1/2 furlongs in his first race at Delaware Park and now stretches out to 6-furlongs which should help.
5 – Johnny Swish– He has a lot of early speed and finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race using this method and earned the highest last race speed rating – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – The Equinest – He is another in the race that has a lot of early speed and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-3-1).
Alternate:
2 – Skating Date
1 – Don Ciccio
Race 5
3 – Prime Coat – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race at Delaware Park and she has a trainer who wins 25% of the in the races in the 2nd start with her after she claims a horse.
7 – Blue Shamrock – She switches to a high % jockey and drops in class today – The trainer wins 44% of the races when going from a maiden to maiden claiming race and she has a bullet workout on June 23.
6 – Saigon – She lost the rider in her last race so throw that one out. She will be closing to try and win the race.
5 – Queen of Mine – She ran 4th vs similar in last race at Delaware Park and drops in class.
Alternate:
10 – Soleada
Race 6
1 – Witty – He finished 7th in his last race after coming 4-5 wide at PENN National on the turf which he did not take to – He should improve while returning to dirt after winning three races in a row on the dirt previously, drops in class today and has a trainer wins 66% of the races in Non-Graded Stakes races.
3 – Crabs N Beer – He finished in the money in his last five races, winning two and finishing 3rd (on Turf) in last race – The trainer/ jockey in the last 14 days has this record (17 5-3-3).
4 – Liltonytwophones – He was well bet in debut and finished 5th after minor problems in the race- Previous workouts were good including a bullet workout on June 2.
Race 7
9 – Radical Right – He finished in the money in all his career races, finishing 3rd in the last race, switches to a high %winning jockey and the trainer wins 24% of the races with shippers.
7 – Kingpin – He finished 3rd in last race on the turf, the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-0-2) and he has a good 4F workout on Jun-17.
1 – Nathan Detroit – He finished 3rd in his last race at Delaware Park and has trainer who wins 18% of the Allowance races he has a mount in.
4 – Seismic Wave – He comes in from Belmont Park to try Delaware Park for the first time, has a trainer who wins 20% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
10 – Town of Gold
Race 8
4 – Qt Bliegh – She has the highest last race speed rating; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she may improve while returning to a sprint.
7 – Mo Stylish – She showed early speed at Monmouth Park and now tries a sprint at Delaware Park, drops in class today and her trainer wins 23% of the races with the 2nd start of a horse with the trainer.
5 – Drink the Tap – She finished 3rd in the race before the last one at 5-1/2 furlongs and at Delaware Park.
6 – Perfect Survivor – She drops in class today and the trainer wins 37% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
Alternate:
2 – No More Fire
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 25 races, 19 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: fair PP, 2/3 bonus, discount 4-7, no winners 8+
7 – KARATS AND GOLD – last race’s 4f pace # would put her about 2-3 lengths ahead of any of the others coming out of the turn, drops multiple classes, tr Kelly Deiter winner 3/8
1 – KISSES FOR HANNAH – has the best start to finish internals in the field and the best LP# by a decent margin
2 – WINNINGFORPLEASURE – has been off since last July, ran speed numbers on turf that would be good enough for this crew, OK works getting ready but should be bigger/stronger as a 4 yo and the numbers go up
4 – MIAMI GOLD – bobbled at the start of her last and still ran fast upfront, probably going to show more in round two off the bench
Race 2 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 2 w2w -PP: 1 winner on the rail, outside in bias for the rest
5 – BRETTMEISTER – TLRSP# in maiden win after coming in from Laurel, same race = same result
3 – SPECIAL MEISTER – the first half-mile of his last race looked like a winner, resume says 2nd start off a break should be a little to a lot better than the 1st.
2 – TINY TIN – showed plenty of improvement in the first half mile of his last race, can be a sign of continued progress in next start
1 – GUNHAND – tough call over the 4, but the fast track 9/2-3-1 vs 8/1-1-0
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 25 races, 19 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: fair PP, 2/3 bonus, discount 4-7, no winners 8+
5 – FABS – two bullet works in the last 3, trainer isn’t so hot with 1st time starters, but got to pick something to beat the 1-1 favorite
4 – SARATOGA COMMANDO – ships in from Belmont, has superior EP#s, 4 yo vs 3 yos except the 6yo 2
6 – SOULSTONE – comes in from Penn just 13 days ago with her fastest fractions in four starts, her PPs say she’ll advance sharply in 2nd start after a layoff, upgrades to Jeremy Rose hitting at 27%
1 – WIND TRYST – gets this spot through the process of elimination. The 3 regressing SP#s from race to race in her three starts, the 2 has 27 starts, safe to say she is what she is
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 35 races, 27 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 4-7>2/3 no winners 8+
5 – JOHNNY SWISH – BB – has the best EP#s by a wide margin at a distance where 43% go w2w
3 – ANY MINUTE – NYRA track dropper and class dropper, has EP too, maybe improves in the 3rd start of the bench
2 – SKATING DATE – taking the biggest class drop, gets upgrades to Carol Cedeno, 3 nice works including a bullet since last race
6 – DIAMANTE DE ORO – has the most late jump and should rally into the exotics
Race 5 – 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf, 11 races, 9 won by speed, 5 w2w -PP: heavy inside 3 bias, 2 winners 4-7, 1 from 8+
5 – QUEEN OF MINE – tried this level once on dirt, otherwise 6/7 races MSW should be the pace setter
7 – BLUE SHAMROCK – only pure MSW dropper, has 3 good works after debut and should be forwardly placed
4 – PRACTICALLY THERE – TLRSP# and was better in the 1st ½ mile of her last race, better fractions at 7 ½F than 5f
2 – SEARCH – drops in class and now gets the rail with the 1 scratching, nice workout between races
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 35 races, 27 won by speed, 15 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 4-7>2/3 no winners 8+
1 – WITTY – going to be a two horse race – most likely, this one should be on the lead and that’s the place to be in a three horse race
3 – CRABS N BEER – Jamie Ness and Jaime Rodriguez win at 33% together, distance 3/2-1-0
4 – LILTONYTWOPHONES – looks outclassed
Race 7 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf, 2 races, both won off the pace -PP: 1 winner 4-7, the other 8+
10 – TOWN OF GOLD – tends to run well off the bench, great workout after great workout getting ready to return
9 – RADICAL RIGHT – was better early and late in his last race, should be better in the 3rd off the bench, 28% for Dale Capuano
7 – KINGPIN – I know speed isn’t the way here, but could be on/near the lead with comfortable fractions
1 – NATHAN DETROIT – tough call over the 4, but he’s been running and the 4 has been off since October and hasn’t run that well fresh
Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 25 races, 19 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: fair PP, 2/3 bonus, discount 4-7, no winners 8+
7 – MO STYLISH – has a big EP edge and could get to the front and never give it up
4 – QT BLIEGH – track dropper getting a weight break, TLRSP#, fast track 6/0-4-0
5 – DRINK THE TAP – resume says her 3rd race after a layoff should be the best of 3
3 – DON’TMAKEAZEEN – has shown flashes of EP and gets 1st Lasix
