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Tom and Rich start the year in Hong Kong at Sha Tin racecourse for a half dozen races. As always, deep fields and plenty of different ways to go with their picks.
Sha Tin Racecourse (Free Sha Tin Past Performances)
Race 5 – THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP
Race 6 – TAI TONG SHAN HANDICAP
Race 7 – TAI TONG HANDICAP
Race 8 – LEIGHTON HANDICAP
Race 9 – CAROLINE HILL HANDICAP
Race 10 – BROADWOOD HANDICAP
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track of the Day: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Sha Tin Horse Racing Picks
22 to 1 Tom’s Sha Tin Tips and Comments
Race 5
7 – Sight Supreme
On his first try on the all-weather at this class level, he won, getting an inside move and up by a nose. He also got a ground-saving trip. He may have found a home on the all-weather, and he can win again with the trip and a decent pace. It will be tough.
12 – Happydearhappydeer
Showed speed in the last two efforts on the all-weather and ran second and third. This is after some less-than-wonderful runs in the races before. With inside speed and only one other who wants the lead, he should get a good trip.
5 – Viva Chaleur
He didn’t have the best of starts last time in front of a face pace but got going in time from a third-place run. In the race before, he was asked for speed and faded to eleventh. He been good enough for third in two of his four tries on the all-weather.
Race 6
5 – Ka Ying Victory
He ran last out at 1200m, started poorly, and never recovered. He has past runs at this distance with success of three wins from five starts. He has substantial-finish speed numbers but is one who wins or finishes up the track. Zac Purton helps.
10 – Aurio
He showed little in his first two starts in Hong Kong but came from last, after a bump at the start, to run third last time out. His final quarter was quick after being taken back at the beginning. His distance was the first time, and I think he showed promise, so I had to place him in the money.
14 – Golden Luck
He didn’t benefit from a slow pace last time out, but he finished strongly enough to suggest that he may show up at a price today with the switch of distance.
Race 7
4 – Wunderbar
After having favorable post positions in previous races, last time out, he drew outside post, had a wide and unfavorable trip, and had nothing at the end. Now, he draws inside again; he has good tactical speed to get position. Zac stays on him, and this should be a better effort. Favorite?
1 – Copartner Prance
After some good results at his level, he was placed in a group two race, slowed his speed, and dropped out to finish eleventh. The winner was Ka Ying Rising, the best sprinter in Hong Kong. He also set the track record in that race. He returns to a level that should give him a better chance of success.
9 – Swift Ascend
He moves up in class after some winning efforts (and a second) at a lower level. He had all kinds of issues last run and still won. The last quarter was very quick. He is strictly a longshot here, but if he runs anywhere close to what he has been doing, we have a good chance of running in the money.
Race 8
4 – Pakistan Legacy
He is two for two in Australia before coming to Hong Kong. He has had many barrier trials, and the last was on the all-weather, where he was taken back and ran an average effort. In the trials before on the turf, he’s had much better efforts. First up is always a risk, but this one shows he’s a runner, and I think he will put in a strong effort today—Zac’s riding, so that should tell you something.
1 – Mighty Stride
His best effort lately was at 1200m, running second, but in the other races, he’s been running at 1400m and moves late but not in the money runs. Back to 1200m, where he has two wins and three seconds from five starts. What have they been thinking?
2 – Aeris Nova
He was pulled up after problems in the race last time. He’s run three times in Hong Kong, and none of these races have been excellent, but he has had issues. He has been good before, with eleven starts, two wins, two seconds, and one third. I will finally take a chance to get a good result in a field of many unknowns.
Race 9
11 – Win Speed
He showed speed but went backward in his last start, and his draw was awful: post 14. Today, he has a more favorable draw for a speed horse. He comes into the race off a good barrier trial, running second. He’s won at this level and at this distance from an unfavorable post position, so I think he will run better today.
1 – Magnificent Nine
After some issues, he rallied in his last start to run fourth at a higher level. His best recent effort was a third at this distance. He has never won in Hong Kong but is good at getting in the money, with seventeen starts and seven in-the-money finishes. He has the top jockey for the first time, so let’s see what could happen today.
3 – Master Of All
He has plenty of speed but draws the outside post position with some speed inside him, so getting caught wide early is possible, but he has run second from this post position in the past. The rating for this group is for a good pace, but it could be slower. Does he have enough to hang on at the end?
Race 10
11 – Light Years Charm
I don’t like the post position, but I like his first start in Hong Kong, which had issues. He ran midpack, moved while blocked, and stopped but kept going. A maiden winner in Australia and placed in his other start, he will improve again enough to beat this group.
5 – Bundle Award
This horse appears to have needed that first start in Hong Kong. He broke from post 13, ran in the back of the field, never really on terms, and finished with some interest. In Australia, he ran four times and won three races, with the top level being a benchmark 64, which is about this level. He went off at 42-1 last time, so let’s see if the bettors have any interest because he will improve.
3 – Silo
He ran second last time out, missing by a neck at 1650m. He has run close to the pace and off the pack, but when he is closer, he finishes better. The outside post doesn’t help, but he was pushed last time to get a position, and it worked well. New jockey.
Rich’s Sha Tin Ranks and Analysis
Race 5 – THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP – 2:00 am ET
7 – Sight Supreme – won his first on AW in his last at this level – better 2nd up?
1 – Fantastic Fun – 3rd up and only horse dropping in class
3 – Reliable Profit – most consistent on the AW
12 – Happydearhappydeer – speed and should be more fit in classic 3rd up
Race 6 – TAI TONG SHAN HANDICAP – 2:35 am ET
6 – Holmes A Court – big class drop from Group level – if he is ready
5 – Ka Ying Victory – all or nothing at the distance 5/3-0-0 – 3rd up
4 – Red Elegance – big FAV – 3rd up – has a chance – but odds to low for current form
1 – Baby Crystal – 3rd up – has faced better – minor improvement in last
Race 7 – TAI TONG HANDICAP – 3:05 am ET
4 – Wunderbar – kind of hard to overlook his track/distance record 6/4-1-0
7 – Full Credit – a little faster in his last – 2nd up and 7/3-1-2 on a good surface
1 – Copartner Prance – class dropper that won 7 of 13 at the distance
3 – Raging Blizzard – big win in his last – track 5/3-1-0 and ITM 9/11 on good
Race 8 – LEIGHTON HANDICAP – 3:35 am ET
10 – Silk Road Glory – going to take a flyer – hasn’t caught a good track yet – if he takes to it – mid pace and close
4 – Pakistan Legacy – going to be your favorite – unbeaten in a pair of close wins
1 – Mighty Stride – distance in correct 5/2-3-0 – maybe catch a decent price with poor form
5 – Von Baer – Tom horse, win – probably not – ITM -yes – best runs on good and fair enough 1st up
Race 9 – CAROLINE HILL HANDICAP – 4:10 am ET
3 – Master Of All – FAV – considering all the others – how do you go with any other? – 5 yo
10 – Sky Deep – finally healthy horse? Making 2 starts in row for the 1st time – better time last out
1 – Magnificent Nine – only class dropper – Zac Purton – 5 yo
13 – Gallant Epoch – speed and fade in 1st up – did improve in only other 2nd off the bench – not a lot of other speed – maybe chases the 3 all the way around the track
Race 10 – BROADWOOD HANDICAP –4:45 am ET
11 – Light Years Charm – 2nd up and improved a lot and won in only other 2ns start off the bench
10 – Bucephalas – never OTM in 4/1-3-0 – solid off the sidelines – WTH at 11-1
13 – Packing Angel – can’t ignore Zac Purton – 3rd run in a row for the 1st time – boom or bust race
2 – Kaholo Angel – just missed in his las and improves in 2nd up starts – 5yo
