Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Horseshoe Indianapolis Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Presque Isle Downs Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie
Horseshoe Indianapolis Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
9 – Indy Biz – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters (but 0 Turf winners) – The trainer wins 25% of the races when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again, the shorter distance should help, and he has a good 5F workout on Jun-14.
6 – Rookwood – He is trying turf for the first time, has a high % winning trainer who wins 66% of the races the first on grass.
3 – Motion to Adjourn – – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race, has a high % trainer who is winning at a 21% clip.
4 – Broken Justice– His Dam has 7 winners from 10 starters and 1 Turf winner – He has a decent workout on May 11.
Alternate:
1 – Vortex Rising
Race 2
5 – Dream Music – She drops in class today and is returning to dirt which may help – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
2 – Ain’t She a Pistol – She won her last race at Oaklawn Park, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Thirteen Stripes – She finished poorly in her last race without any apparent problems, so I am going to throw that race out and switches to a high % winning jockey.
6 – Selena Sing – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; the trainer wins 21% of the races when bringing a horse back from 46-90 days off and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-15.
Alternate:
1 – Blest Life
3 – Protomagic
Race 3
8 – Mose Definitely – He finished 2nd in his first race after being off for nine months and has a high % trainer who is winning at a 21% clip.
5 – Quality Chrome – He has finished in the money in three of his last four races, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
3 – Morning Angel – He is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on Jun-14.
2 – Wicked Intent – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 33% of the races when moving a horse from a maiden to maiden – claiming.
Alternate:
12 – Avendore
4 – Miss Susie R
Race 4
7 – Gray Attempt – She has finished in the money in the last seven races winning three of those races, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-14.
10- Star of Kodiak – She likes the turf finishing in the money in fourteen out of twenty races, winning six and likes the distance finishing in the money in twelve out of sixteen races, winning five.
11 – City Drifter – She won her last race at today’s distance and at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the trainer wins 17% of the turf start races he has an entry in.
6 – American Mandate – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – League of Shadows
Race 5
4 – Ferryboat – He finished 2nd vs tougher in his last race, got the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today – The shorter distance may help, the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-2-0) and he has a good 4F workout on Jun-14.
1 – Killer Bee – He ran 5th in his last race only losing by 2-1/2 lengths, drops in class today and trainer wins 38% of the time when dropping down 2+ classes.
6 – Chase Tracker – He comes in from Churchill Downs to try Horseshoe Indianapolis for the first time, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Powerful Point – He finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and drops in class today.
Alternate:
3 – Forensic File
2 – Inherent Powers
Race 6
6 – Overthought – He is moving up to the allowance class, but the trainer wins 25% of the allowance races he enters a horse in and he won two races in a row including his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
4 – Tripulante – He finished 5th in his last race after an awkward start, but prior to that race finished in the money in six out of six races, winning two.
3 – Stop Hammertime – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Gormleys Got Game – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
Alternate:
5 – Pressure
1 – Oxwood
Race 7
7 – Golden Rapper – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start, has a high % winning trainer who is winning at an 18% clip and a jockey who is winning at a 21% clip.
5 – For Mama – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, got the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Circle Indy – He finished 3rd in his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has a good workout on 03Jun Ind 4f ft :48 B 5/40.
4 – Got Lost – He returns after a 7-month layoff, has a trainer that in the last 14 days has this record (13 5-3-0) and a good workout on 31May Ind 3f ft :37.1 B 6/20.
Alternate:
2 – Hitchpin
6 – Runaway Image
Race 8
2 – Go for Sherrie – He has finished in the money in three of his last four races, winning one of the contests and finishing in 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – He Takes Charge – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race, the rail post is winning at 24% clip and the trainer the last 14 days has this record (13 5-3-0).
4 – Moment – He came in from Hawthorne after winning two races in a row and finished a disappointing 5th without any apparent reason so I will throw that race out as he has won two of three races at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
6- High Spirits – He comes in from Churchill Downs to try Horseshoe Indianapolis for the first time and drops in class today.
Alternate:
8 – Here Comes Doc
7 – Nietzsche
Race 9
9 – Furrst Hanka – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has the good outside post.
5 – Ajk Payyourtax – He has finished in the money in five out of five races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, winning one.
7 – Ladies Shall B First – He won his last race at Belterra at 350 yards and stretches out to 440 yards.
1 – Jess Dashingly – He ran 4th in a Derby Trial 14k.
Alternate:
2 – Apollitical B Girl
6 – Hejfund
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf, 5 races, 3 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: too few to identify a trend, but rail and 8+ so far
4 – BROKEN JUSTICE – 4 yo Debut, most other contenders are 3 yo, debut run was best indicating he can run well off the bench
9 – INDY BIZ – probably going to win, but likely odds drop a lot, 4 yo debut too, Eddie C angle
6 – ROOKWOOD – 1st try on grass and should be close to the pace, 3rd after a layoff
10 – PABLO’S SUN
1 – VORTEX RISING
3 – MOTION TO ADJOURN
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 49 races, 37 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: fair
4 – THIRTEEN STRIPES – track drop from Churchill, but HINDY 4/1-1-1-1, increases 2f # in last and could be better in 2nd off the bench
5 – DREAM MUSIC – this one is going to take the money, but seems they have no idea what surface they want to run on, did get maiden win on dirt race taken off the grass, biggest drop in class and lone E
6 – SELENA SING – tied for the TLRSP#, nice work pattern since, not a fan of MCL 20k winners next out, but it was just her 2nd race, so maybe she is better than the price she won at
2 – AIN’T SHE A PISTOL – MCL winner at OP in 9th try, tied for TLRSP#, works since are OK
1 – BLEST LIFE
3 – PROTOMAGIC
Race 3 – 1 Mile Turf, 18 races, 14 won by speed, 6 w2w – PP: 2/3 win more than they should, rail 4-7 slightly underperform, 1 winner 8+
5 – QUALITY CHROME – TLRSP#, on turf 2/0-1-0, one of the top pedigree scores, should be right off the pace and closing hard late
3 – MORNING ANGEL – first time starter for Brad Cox with good works
2 – WICKED INTENT – aside for the 5, has superior LP#s and could improve on R2 off the sidelines
10 – MEDWAY QUEEN – could be loose on the lead, maybe the drop in class is enough for her to hang on
1 – TREMILA – first time starter without a lot to beat, although trainer’s debut record says she’ll probably need one
6 – AUNT RUTH
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 10 races. 7 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 from rail, 8+ with bonus 2-3 slightly underperform
This one is loaded with similar front end EP#s, speed of the speed or tactical speed with late kick
11 – CITY DRIFTER – won his last race in first start on Indy Turf, distance 8/4-2-0, better Pace #s
7 – GRAY ATTEMPT – track dropper from FG, class dropper, TLRSP#, distance 7/3-0-3 all on grass
5 – BOA NOVA – last three on Indy grass would be good enough to win here
6 – AMERICAN MANDATE – 2nd Indy turf run after running at tier 1 tracks
1 – ROLIN WITH OLIN
Race 5 – 1 Mile, 19 races, 16 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: 1, 4-7 underperform, 2/3 slight bonus
4 – FERRYBOAT – track dropper, TLRSP#, Down in class, fast work since last
3 – FORENSIC FILE – 3rd off the layoff, tr Robert Dobbs, jr 26%, alpha angle over 17% overall win rate and has top EP#s
1 – KILLER BEE – down 2+ classes, winner 5/13 for tr Israel Garcia, better 2/4f #s in last
2 – INHERENT POWERS – lone E and could try to get to lead, question is if he can get the lead and hold on
5 – POWERFUL POINT
7 – RECKLESSNESS
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 49 races, 37 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: fair
7 – CAP DE FUEGO – has a major EP edge over the field and should be peak form in 3rd after a layoff
2 – GORMLEYS GOT GAME – all or nothing horse that won his last with better #s ATB and 3rd off the bench
3 – STOP HAMMERTIME – lone closer in a field of pressers and speed, if the pace gets too hot, he runs by them all at the end
6 – OVERTHOUGHT – is undefeated in 2 at Indy, not sure if the cut back in distance from 1 mile is the right move
4 – TRIPULANTE
5 – PRESSURE
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs, 49 races, 37 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: fair
2 – HITCHPIN – should improve off the debut race with 2nd best last race speed # – hot barn
5 – FOR MAMA – TLRSP# with better numbers the last half of his last race, better fractions at 6f than 5 ½ furlongs
7 – GOLDEN RAPPER – just missed in his debut after steading out of the gate, a better start might be all he needs
1 – RIVER ANT – first time starter with bullet and go, although trainer 12/0-0-0
6 – RUNAWAY IMAGE
3 – CIRCLE INDY
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 21 races, 16 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 4-7 bonus, 2/3 slight penalty and no winners 8+
2 – GO FOR SHERRIE – BB – mom’s name, TLRSP#, distance 12/6-0-3, should sit right behind the leader(s) and run by late
4 – MOMENT – Top EP horse in the race, HINDY 3/2-0-0, better EP#s last out
1 – HE TAKES CHARGE – much improved in first half of last race, resume says 3rd off the bench could be major jump
8 – HERE COMES DOC – been off since August, was facing tougher, good works pattern getting ready
5 – NOT VERY GENTLE
3 – WILDCARD PRADO
Race 9 – 440 Yards
7 – LADIES SHALL B FIRST
1 – JESS DASHINGLY
9 – FURRST HANKA
8 – BV BLAZE OF GLORY
3 – SEPARATE INCIDENT
5 – AJK PAYYOURTAX
