Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Horseshoe Indianapolis Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Finger Lakes Racetrack Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie
Horseshoe Indianapolis Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Elvis Just Elvis – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – My Honey’s Perfect – He comes in from Oaklawn Park to try Horseshoe Indianapolis for the first time, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Fifty-Two Pickup – He showed early speed in his last race finishing 4th, has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse – The trainer the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
7 – Tequila Revolution – He comes in from Hawthorne after finishing 4th to try Horseshoe Indianapolis for the first time and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
1 – Joe’s Calling
2 – El Cardinal
Race 2
2 – El Bohemio – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, has the highest last race speed rating, and has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a horse back who won their last race.
4 – Blessed With Luck – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and the trainer wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse in.
1 – Gemo Rain – He drops down in class after being claimed and the trainer wins 22% of the races when he drops a horse off a claim – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Unanimously – He drops in class today and the trainer /jockey combo the last 14 days has this record (7 2-0-0).
Alternate:
6 – Egomaniac
3 – Meltdown
Race 3
6 – Purr Sea – She has won three out of her six career races by going to the front and leading to the finish line – She finished 4th in her last race as the favorite but the trainer wins 47% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Shoshoni Moon – She came in from Belterra after winning a race and ran 2nd in her first race at Horseshoe Indianapolis – She has the highest last race speed rating, and the trainer wins 20% of the races his horses dirt starts.
4 – Quicky Desire – She won her debut race at Mountaineer and the trainer wins 24% of the races when shipping in.
3 – Pipeline Girl – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a trainer the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
Alternate:
2 – Princess Elin
Race 4
4 – Mornin’ Boss – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her only start, she was well bet in debut, and she has a bullet workout on 14Jun Ind 3f ft :37 B 1/7.
8 – Happy Gal– She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-18.
2 – Buttons – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-17.
9 – Midnight Xo – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, and she has a decent 4F workout on Jun-18.
Alternate:
7 – Pepper Sweet
12 – Elle Est Forte
Race 5
7 – Tappin Into Summer – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race only losing by one length and receiving the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and her trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
8 – Lashes – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has an entry in and she has a good workout on June 23rd.
3 – Kisses So Sweet –She drops in class today and her trainer in the last 14 days has this record (15 5-1-1).
2 – West Coast Justice – She finished 2nd in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
9 – Justa Simple Girl
6 – Lady Dont Mind
Race 6
11 – Last Hurrah – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race receiving the highest last race speed, the shorter distance may help, and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
12 – Miss Luv Shack – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (17 5-2-1).
3 – Mamala Kamala – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best turf speed is faster than the avg winning speed.
5 – Zipsy Rose Lee – She is eligible to improve in her 3rd start since a layoff and her best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
9 – Golden Heist
8 – Clever Kate
Race 7
2 – Bluegrass Prayer – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 60% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
9 – Jericho Express – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, got the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Cha Cha Larry – He finished 3rd at Horseshoe Indianapolis in his only start.
3 – Shineonbrad – He tried a route in his last race and did not do well and now cuts back to 6-furlongs which I think he likes better and the trainer who wins 17% of the time when going from a Sprint-Route-Sprint.
Alternate:
8 – Ready for More
Race 8
1 – Outlining – She won her debut race at Horseshoe Indianapolis as the heavily bet favorite – She has a high % winning trainer, the breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-17.
4 – Ravir – She has finished in the money in three out of five career races, winning one and drops in class today.
3 – Aizu – She comes in from Churchill Downs to try Horseshoe Indianapolis for the first time, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
11 – Choctaw Bingo – She won her last race on the turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis and at today’s distance receiving the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
12 – Elle Est Forte
10 – Tetella
Race 9
5 – Image Run – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she was well bet in debut.
4 – Vivijo – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who is winning at a 25% clip.
6 – Woo Woo Girl – She ran 3rd vs similar in first start at Horseshoe Indianapolis and then in her second start she hopped at the start and lost all chance.
7 – Anaita – She ran 4th vs similar in her first start at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the trainer who wins 23% of the time in Sprints.
Alternate:
8 – Pillow Drop
3 – Darnell
Race 10
10 – Paradyce – He won two races in a row the last one at today’s distance and at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
5 – One Night Too Long – He won two races in a row the last one at today’s distance.
1 – Rock Candy Blue – He won his race last at today’s distance and has the best workout of all today’s horses at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
7 – A Little Louie – He has finished in the money in his last four races, winning one.
Alternate:
2 – Kiss Me at Midnight
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 57 races, 43 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: slight rail underperformance, mostly fair 2-7, bump for 8+
6 – FIFTY TWO PICKUP – improved early in first race odd he claim for tr Thomas Amoss, expecting another step in the right direction, Amoss winning 30% 2nd off the claim
3 – MY HONEY’S PERFECT – substantial drop after being claimed for 50K in April 2021, purse money is only $15k, a year’s worth of training and medical bills… smells a little to me
1 – JOE’S CALLING – didn’t show up for his debut but was bet well, would have like to see a work between races, but the bettors clearly thought highly in the debut, maybe he shows us why today
5 – DISCOUNT DENNIS – 1st time starter without a lot to beat in here after the first few picks, and even they have giant questions to answer. It was the 5 or the 2 here, we’ll take our chnaces.
Race 2 – 1 Mile, 20 races, 17 won by speed, 6 w2w – PP: 2/3 best, rail penalty, 4-7 underperform and no winners 8+
3 – MELTDOWN – LS – won his last pair of routes going w2w – usually gets off to a good start and will be hard to pass if he holds the lead into the stretch
5 – UNANIMOUSLY – drops in class, his last race was better than it looks on paper, race #2 after a layoff should be at least as good as his last
1 – GEMO RAIN – most likely favorite, but burned backers’ money as the top choice in his last three starts, weight break and class drop could be enough to keep lighters in pockets this time
2 – EL BOHEMIO – won his last race in his first start after a long break, that speed # is so off the charts compared to most of his previous 10 races, that regression is likely, also notice most of his good races were state restricted and bombed in open company
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 57 races, 43 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: slight rail underperformance, mostly fair 2-7, bump for 8+
3 – PIPELINE GIRL – CD Track dropper that stumbled at the start of her last race and still had some of the best EP#s, a couple of good works
6 – PURR SEA – regressed sharply, late in her last race, but matched up versus faster fractions, maybe better in the 3rd start after a layoff
1 – SHOSHONI MOON – TLRSP# 2 races in a row, gets a weight break, considerably faster fractions in last despite drop in speed #
4 – QUICKY DESIRE
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 12 races, 7 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: none from the rail, all others mostly fair
6 – QUEEN OF ATLANTIS – workouts are as good as the morning line favorite, in fact fastest 4f work of the fist timers
8 – HAPPY GAL – tr Wesley Ward gets his first timers ready, winning at 30%, especially turf sprinters
2 – BUTTONS – another with a good workout routine coming into her debut race – moves to the rail
4 – MORNIN’ BOSS – best of the experienced horses
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 55 races, 44 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: rail penalty, 2/3 close to fair, 4-7 slight bonus, 8+ small penalty
7 – TAPPIN INTO SUMMER – has the best numbers at the track and distance, TLRSP#, ran considerably better fractions in her last
2 – WEST COAST JUSTICE – is making her first start after a claim for tr Alexis Claire, a 36% winner, a good work since
8 – LASHES – strong mid move upgrade in her last, important in sprints
3 – KISSES SO SWEET – ran her best LP# in her last outing and her resume suggests a big jump in round 2 after a layoff
Race 6 – 1 Mile Turf, 29 races, 19 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail and 4-7 minor underperformance, 2/3 bonus, 8+ win at less than half than they should
11 – LAST HURRAH – has a pair of seconds in her two turf races at Indy, including one at the distance
3 – MAMALA KAMALA – could find her footing in the 2nd start on grass, 2nd route and 3rd off the break, these are some of tr Anthony Granitz’s best angles
12 – MISS LUV SHACK – has been well bet in her two races, flashed speed in her last, going go long and go on grass for the first time
2 – V. E. TIA – continues to improve internally, upping her pace numbers from race to race
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs, 57 races, 43 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: slight rail underperformance, mostly fair 2-7, bump for 8+
2 – BLUEGRASS PRAYER – improved in second career start, the move to an inside post should help, a decent work between races
9 – JERICHO EXPRESS – has been close in the last two, not sure the extra ½ helps, fractions were a little slower in last
5 – CHA CHA LARRY – probably has the most upside in this race, ran a solid race in debut and we don’t know his upside
6 – LOOKING SALTY – debut last out and will likely be a bomb, his first half mile was more than competitive for this group, gets a jockey upgrade for this one, if he has more stamina today, bombs away
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf, 29 races, 19 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail and 4-7 minor underperformance, 2/3 bonus, 8+ win at less than half than they should
11 – CHOCTAW BINGO – loves the distance, has three wins and a third in five races, real nice race last out but not peak numbers, can still go higher
1 – OUTLINING – Brad Cox trainee won debut with ease, but a 4 horse field, been working well since, we find out what she is today
5 – MIZZEN ASH – if you look at her 1 mile races, you’ll she always makes a strong effort at the end and is usually close
12 – ELLE EST FORTE – CD track dropper, is a head and neck from winning 3 of five turf starts
Race 9 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 55 races, 44 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: rail penalty, 2/3 close to fair, 4-7 slight bonus, 8+ small penalty
6 – WOO WOO GIRL – never mind the last race after hopping at the start, pay attention to the debut, if she runs the same as debut, gets the lead and maybe never gives it up
5 – IMAGE RUN – was well bet in her debut as a 2yo, should be stronger in 3yo debut, good works getting ready
7 – ANAITA – ran a real strong first ½ mile in her debut, faded late, two good works since and should have more late
2 – JACK’S SUMMER – first time starter with bullet and go
Race 10 – 440 Yards
5 – ONE NIGHT TOO LONG
2 – KISS ME AT MIDNIGHT
10 – PARADYCE
1 – ROCK CANDY BLUE
