Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Horseshoe Indianapolis Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park
Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Tizzy Jojo – Her Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters, she has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-0-1) and a good 4F workout (May-13).
3 – Twirling Justice – Her Dam has 4 winners from 6 starter, the trainer wins 23% of the race’s dirt starts and she has decent workouts.
4 – Macho Justice – Her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout (May-4).
6 – Passionforjustice – Her Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
1 – Mean Elenita
2 – General Affair
Race 2
3 – Bella Bolle – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis getting the highest last race speed rating – She appears to be able to either lead or come from off the pace to win her races and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-0-1).
1 – More Approval – She has finished in the money 100% of the time during her young career, winning two races out of five and she has decent workouts.
6 – Quick and Easy – She was racing in handicap races and drops in the class today.
5 – Brookville Storm – She ran 2nd in her last race, has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1) and has a good workout on April 29th.
Alternate:
2 – Valsheba
4 – Dance Money
Race 3
4 – Lilbitofsweetness – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, getting the highest last race speed rating and was well bet in debut.
1 – Fashionatta – She is a first-time starter whose dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, the trainer wins 19% of the races in maiden claiming races – Her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-3-2).
2 – Scrape – She ran 5th in her debut race after having some problems, was well bet in the debut, has a high % winning trainer and she has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 5-2-2).
7 – Wicked Ecstasy –She should improve while returning to the dirt, has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when going from AW to Dirt surface and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Keen Ice Sight
6 – Diamonds N Denim
Race 4
7 – Jericho Express – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1- Maker’s Please – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Cha Cha Larry – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and has a good 5F workout (May-13).
8 – Indy Rebel – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has a trainer who wins 33% of the time when going from a maiden claiming race to a maiden race and a good 5F workout (May-12).
Alternate:
6 – Hot N Sweaty
3 – Travelinjustice
Race 5
3 – Spycraft – He took off from October 2021 until April 2022 and finished in 4th at Keenland in his first race back, drops in class today and can improve at the shorter distance.
7 – Fight On – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a trainer who wins 38% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and he should improve at the shorter distance.
1 – Tapit’s Spirit – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race, receiving the highest last race speed rating and his Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
5 – Mr Manning – He has a trainer who wins 18% of the time when going from dirt to turf and may improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
2 – Boa Nova
Race 6
4 – Dossier – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start after being bumped and bobbled at the start – He has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Killer Hotrod – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race receiving the highest last race speed rating and can improve with blinkers added today.
6 – Go Early Stay Late – He finished 6th in his first race back after a 6-month break and should improve in the 2nd start since the layoff – His trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
3 – Shineonbrad – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
9 – Wire the Cash
5 – My Buckaroo
Race 7
8 – Bickerments – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Shesacleverjustice – She finished 4th beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in her last start after being off 6-months and may improve in 2nd start since layoff.
9 – Ajic Jay – She has a high % trainer and her dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 1 Turf winner.
10 – Not a Role Model – She has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-3-2) and she has a bullet workout on 02May – 3f ft :37 B 1/8.
Alternate:
2 – Corima
Race 8
6 – Nobrag Justfact – He won his last race and likes the turf finishing in the money 53% of the time, winning 29% of the races.
7 – Hemp Hemp Hurray – He drops in class today; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 17% of the time when shipping a horse in to run.
4 – Ian Glass – Comes in from Santa Anita to try Horseshoe Indianapolis, has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 31% of the time when bringing a horse back from being 46-90 days away.
1- Mystery Unbridled – She likes the turf finishing in the money in 50% of the turf races, winning 30% of the races, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip and the distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
2 – Spectacular Gem
Race 9
7 – Jess Good Reason Sa – She finished 3rd vs similar in his first race back after a 6-months break.
2 – Ajk Payyourtax – He has finished in the money in 100% of the races last year, winning one – Has a good workout on May 6th.
3 – Bv Seleect Beach– He won his first race back after a 6-month break.
9 – Ah One Special Wave – He has a bullet workout on 18May Ind 1f ft :11.2 B 1/16.
Alternate:
8 – Skip to My Lew
1 – Hf Leave Me Alone
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 4 ½ Furlongs, 1 race, won with speed from 2/3 posts
1 – MEAN ELENITA – tr/jy combo of Cirllo Gorostiela and Agustin Gomez, winners 5/16 +0.28 ROI, trainer 3/30 1st time starters with +0.93 ROI
6 – PASSIONFORJUSTICE – good work on May 21, 3f in 36 seconds
5 – TIZZY JOJO – another jy/tr combo with a big ROI, Joseph Ramos/Marvin Johnson team winners 5/15 with +1.84 ROI – much lower odds than the 1
3 – TWIRLING JUSTICE – top trainer in this bunch with first time starters hitting at 15%, decent works
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 10 races, 100% won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: rails wins less than it should, 2/3 decent bonus, fair 4-7
3 – BELLA BOLLE – 3SP# increases in a row with TLRSP#, better 5f #s at 5 ½ vs 5 – could be better in 3rd off the break
1 – MORE APPROVAL – never off the board in 5/2-2-1 all at Indy, 21f works since March 29
5 – BROOKVILLE STORM – been off since October, has some very strong works getting ready, 2nd by a ½ length in her last return off a similar break
6 – QUICK AND EASY – another that’s been in the barn since Halloween, works are blah, but she is dropping from a pair of non graded stakes
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 10 races, 100% won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: rails wins less than it should, 2/3 decent bonus, fair 4-7
5 – NEOQUEEN – sire has 33% win rate with first time starts, 101 foals and 66 that have raced, 22/66 winners -avg winning distance is 6f
1 – FASHIONATTA -$42k horse, jockey Edgar Morales hitting at 29% to start
4 – LILBITOFSWEETNESS – TLRSP# and gets a weight break, was well bet in debut maybe better in race number two
6 – DIAMONDS N DENIM – only true MSW to MCL dropper in the field, all others with experience have tried and failed in MCL
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 42 races, 32 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: rail way underperforms with just 1 win, 2/3 and 8+ underperform as well, 4-7 best
7 – JERICHO EXPRESS – missed as the favorite in his second career start with TLRSP#, much better fractions at 5 ½ furlongs versus 5
5 – LET’S GO JOHN – works are as good as any, jy Samuel Bermudez and Trainer Raymond Paquette win 2/7 w/ +1.66 ROI
2 – CHA CHA LARRY – very high ROI combo for jy Orlnado Mojica and tr Brian Cook, winner 2/4 ITM 3/4 ROI of +12.00 better workouts than the 1
1 – MAKER’S PLEASE – making 3rd start, little better 4f numbers on last but major late regression, quick TA wi/o a work
Race 5 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 1 race, 100% speed from posts 2/3
2 – BOA NOVA – LS – top pedigree numbers for distance and surface by a little over the 7, both are considerably ahead of the others. Last two at 5f on turf 2nd by a neck and a win
3 – SPYCRAFT – track drop from Keeneland, second off the bench, winner 2/3 at the distance
7 – FIGHT ON – missed as the favorite in his last, trainer Brittany Vanden Berg winner 27 of 71 next time around the track with BTN FAVS
1 – TAPIT’S SPIRIT – TLRSP# on dirt, trying grass for the 1st time, trainer only has 1 win w/ 25 first time turfers, but horse is 1 for 1 on a sloppy track which can be an indicator for turf
Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 42 races, 32 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: rail way underperforms with just 1 win, 2/3 and 8+ underperform as well, 4-7 best
4 – DOSSIER – showed speed for the first 4 ½ furlongs in his debut, has a maintenance work since and should be better in his second start
7 – KILLER HOTROD – TLRSP# is making his second start after a layoff, huge SP# jump in his last with strong 2/4f improvement
3 – SHINEONBRAD – was much better ATB in his last, flirting with the winners’ circle 7/0-2-2 on fast, 6/0-1-2 at the distance
1 – LOOKING SALTY – all the other had a lot of chances to break the maiden, going with the 1st timer with the better workouts – if you prefer the 9, take him
Race 7 – 7 ½ furlongs Turf, 3 races, 2 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP 8+ won 2/3 – 4-7 the other
7 – SHESACLEVERJUSTICE – improved sharply in her first race as a 3 yo, also was first one turf, looking for LP improvement here and her staking a step forward
2 – CORIMA – last race was better than it looks, fraction we considerably faster at 1 mile on grass than 5 ½ furlongs on dirt
9 – AJIC JAY – stretching out and trying grass for the first time, was well bet in debut and closed, followed up with a stinker last out
8 – BICKERMENTS – missed by a nose in her last with her best SP#, gets a weight break and maybe improves in round two off the bench
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf, 11 races, 10/11 won by speed, 5/11 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2-7 play fair, 8+ yet to win
7 – HEMP HEMP HURRAY – last raced at Keeneland in October, last time he had a similar break, come out of the barn to run 2nd by ½ length on Indy grass, like today – indy 4/1-3-0
8 – EGO – – comes in versus tougher at OP, does has 3 runs on Indy grass, 3/1-1-0
3 – ARTIE’S RUMOR – his LP#s in his last significantly blow away every other horse in the field but he can also show some EP, drop in class
4 – IAN GLASS – ships in from the west coast off the claim for Trainer Brittany Vanden Berg, she wins at 34% off the claim
Race 9 – 350 yards!
7 – JESS GOOD REASON SA
9 – AH ONE SPECIAL WAVE
2 – AJK PAYYOURTAX
3 – BV SELEECT BEACH
