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Horse Racing Today – Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks – Tuesday, September 20, 2022

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Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mountaineer Park

Horseshoe Indianapolis Horse Racing Picks and Analysis

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1 

5 – Indy Biz – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, should improve while returning to dirt and his trainer wins 32% of the time when taking a horse from maiden to maiden – claiming.

6 – Big Earl – He drops in class today and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (28 8-3-3).

2 – Consider – He drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

3 – Justicethebeast – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 32% of the time when going from maiden to maiden – claiming races.

Alternate:

1 – Afleeting Idea

 

Race 2

5 – Raceday Attire – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 29% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.

7 – Luckywise – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and she can handle the distance.

4 – Expect the Boss – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

6 – Keen Ice Sight – She drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt and the trainer wins 25% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.

Alternate:

8 – Oxbow’s Image

3 – Rap Star

 

Race 3

6 – India Ink – He drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt and his early speed running style helps his chances.

7 – Pachi – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has a good trainer and jockey.

1 – Full Impact – He comes in from Churchill Downs to try Horseshoe Indianapolis for the first time, ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

3 – Intend – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and likes the track and distance.

Alternate:

4 – Rampage

5 – Gemo Rain

 

Race 4

6 – My Favorite Uncle – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.

2 – Tri colour – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last start and drops in class today.

3 – Prince Shim – He has finished in 2nd in his last three races, his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 2 Turf winners.

5 – When in Rome – He drops in class today and the trainer wins 25% of the time with a horse in its 2nd grass race.

Alternate:

10 – Go Virtual

 

Race 5 

5 – Chrome’s Right – He drops in class today and has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-09.

8 – First Crowned – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg winning speed.

9 – C F V Bullet – He may improve in his 3rd start since a layoff.

7 – Lord Dylan – He ran 3rd in his last race and has decent workouts.

Alternate:

6 – Illusioned

 

Race 6

10 – Aeroballistic – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.

6 – Humble Warrior – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the distance will not be a problem.

2 – No Proof – He has a trainer `who wins 33% of the time when taking a horse from dirt to turf, may improve while returning to a route and has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-14.

1 – Broken Justice – He is one for three at Horseshoe Indianapolis, on the turf and today’s distance will not be a problem.

 

Race 7

6 – Friday Night Right – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

2 – J’s Naughty Boy –He finished 3rd vs similar in last race.

11 – Carnack On Tour– He is a first time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and he has a couple of good 4F workout.

3 – Secreto de Amore – His trainer wins 18% of the time when going from route to a sprint. 

Alternate:

4 – Foxy Boxy

 

Race 8

1 – Habuiah – She has finished in the money in six out of seven career races, winning two, has a high % winning trainer who wins 38% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.

11 – Louder Than Words – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.

8 – Stormy Wager – She ran 2nd in her last race, and she has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).

9 – Talk to me justice – She was only beaten only 2-lengths (on Dirt) in last start and her trainer wins 21% of the time when going from Sprint-Sprint-Route.

Alternate:

2 – Just Humming – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis which is a track she likes.

5 – Too Crowded

 

Race 9

3 – Fall on the Beach – She had trouble in her last race.

2 – Wheres Wilson – She finished two 3rds in a row.

1 – Sum Beach Sum Were – She was bumped hard in her last race and lost all chance.

9 – Jr What in elldou want – She has good workouts.

Alternate:

5 – Dj Smooch Alot

10 – Mr Shazoom

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 72 races, 54 won by speed, 16 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2-7 fair, now winners 8+

5 – INDY BIZ – BB – has ++4f and +6 f edge, ++ EP/LP combo,  TLRSP#, tr Aaron West 32% MSW to MCL

2 – CONSIDER – only closer in a field of pressure and E horses

6 – BIG EARL – last race looks like trash on paper, but 6f time was better at 1m than previous 6f time

1 – AFLEETING IDEA – down in class and could be a part of the early pace

 

Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 140 races, 105 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 small penalty, 8+ bonus

5 – RACEDAY ATTIRE – left arrow horse, TLRSP#, drops in class, LP1, + EP/LP, weight break, HIndy 3/1-2-0

8 – OXBOW’S IMAGE – lone PC horse, all or nothing type 7/2-0-0, both Ws came at Indy in 6 races and in 3 at the distance, down multiple classes, 34% winner for tr Kim Hammond

7 – LUCKYWISE – looking for more in classic 3rd start after a layoff, won last with ease

6 – KEEN ICE SIGHT – could be on the pace with the 5, down multiple classes

 

Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 119 races, 95 won by speed, 42 w2w – PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty

1 – FULL IMPACT – left arrow, sort of, Track Dropper from CD, TLRSP#, Aug 20 work was nice

6 – INDIA INK – is one for one on HIndy dirt and two for two in short sprints, both w2w, gets the lead lookout

7 – PACHI – has  ++ LP and ++ EP/LP combo advantages, but comes in from Fanduel, track riser

3 – INTEND – Z pattern in last, fractions were slow, so concerning, but 6/1-3-1 in short sprints, 4th in the other

 

Race 4 – 1 Mile Turf, 59 races, 31 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: rail penalty, 2-7 a little better than par, 8+ big discount

6 – MY FAVORITE UNCLE – was better in the first ½ mile last out, just missed, +LP, 1 of 4 droppers

5 – WHEN IN ROME – was much better in the first half mile on his first start on grass, decent work since, drops multiple classes, tr Genaro Garcia winner  18/57

2 – TRICOLOUR – just missed at this level two back, might step it up in his 3rd off the break

3 – PRINCE SHIM – looks like the best of the rest

 

Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 140 races, 105 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 small penalty, 8+ bonus

8 – FIRST CROWNED – left arrow horse, E/P horse, better times last out 6f v 5 1/2f, 3 SP# increases

6 – ILLUSIONED – 1st timer who doesn’t have a lot to beat in here, last work and July 21 say he could be quick early

5 – CHROME’S RIGHT – TLRSP#, was very close a couple of times at this level, aside from the top choice, the best speed numbers

1 – FRENCH COMPOSER – tough call over the 9, going to take the horse with just 1 start and a SP that rivals any other – any improvement off a bobbled start he could win

 

Race 6 – 1 Mile Turf, 59 races, 31 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: rail penalty, 2-7 a little better than par, 8+ big discount

10 – AEROBALLISTIC – knocking on the door at HIndy, 3/0-3-0, strong Z pattern in last

12 – C F V TEXAS RED – TLRSP# on dirt, nice work since, has a +4f pace edge, first on grass, if he likes the switch

6 – HUMBLE WARRIOR –top LP#s, BTN FAV, HIndy 2/0-1-1 both on turf

1 – BROKEN JUSTICE – better early in last, lone win was in 2 at the distance

 

Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 119 races, 95 won by speed, 42 w2w – PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty

6 – FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT – LS – been knocking on the door, TLRSP# – maybe the best of experienced horses

11 – CARNACK ON TOUR – looking at Aug 26 work, was fast, gets a weight break, not a fan of the post

7 – BUCKLE UP – decent works, good breeding, weight break

2 – J’S NAUGHTY BOY – – comment in last, unhurried and he rallied aggressively 5 wide, a better start might be the key

 

Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 29 races, 21 won off the pace, 4 w2w – PP: rail penalty, 2-7 little bonus, 8+ penalty too

11 – LOUDER THAN WORDS – TLRSP# and drops for 4 consecutive 100k non graded stakes, speed numbers are superior to all others, either she regresses, or others have to come up not to win

1 – HABUIAH – missed as the chalk in last, tr John Langemeier rebounds 5/13, won lone turf try

8 – STORMY WAGER – HIndy 8/2-4-1, real strong works getting ready say she will be ready again

9 – TALKTOMEJUSTICE – little flyer here, 1st on grass, left arrow horse with 2nd best LP, + EP/LP combo, if he can bring that form to turf?

10 – TAPERINEA – has some of the most late pace in the group and tends to make up ground late

Horseshoe Indianapolis Pace Worksheet

Horseshoe Indianapolis 9-20-2022

 

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