Horse Racing Today – Kentucky Downs Picks – Thursday, September 1, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

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Race 1

7 – Dream Role

1^st time starter, consist works

I especially like the 1^st recorded work in the muddy at CD in July

Sire is turf sire with 3 of 21 winning in debut as 2yr.

Mare was unraced and produced 6 foals but only 1 won

Longshot, but its KY Downs, stuff happens

9 – Fabulosity

First race was not good at Ellis but it also moved off the turf

Since the race, she worked :47.2B at CDT and then a maintenance work

Sire won the Preakness but has not produced a good turf horse yet

Mare was unraced, 7 have raced 5 were winners including 2 turf winners

A 5k buy may need softer to win but I give this one a shop doe Joe Sharp

10 – Carnaby Street

First time start with a good series of even works

Trained by Wesley Ward

Sire was a triple crown winner and has sired many good turf runners they are winning at 12% rate for first time starters

Mare won her first start at GP (dirt) and ran 3^rd in stakes race on the AW. Her one foal to race won in 3^rd start at the maiden claiming level of 40k

The mare’s sibling won minor stakes races on the dirt

 

Race 2

5 – Argentello

Last race in April, ran 3^rd at Keeneland in allowance race, Slow start, slow finish

A series of 9 works, some are pretty good leading up to this race

Drops in class into claimer for first time

Last won in 2021 at the Fairgrounds

Picking because of the drop, works are good

9 – Artie’s Rumor

Won last by 6L at Indiana in OC30k claimer

Claimed in February for 25k, winning that effort

Came back after claim to run 5^th by 2 1/2L

Good last work and this race was the target?

7-year-old has run 37 times on the turf with 13 wins 2 seconds 6 thirds

After layoff, good spot to come back at a price?

6 – Be Here

Tried stakes company last out at MTH without success running 5^th and never moved forward

Prior 2 races were wins at BEL and DEL

Distance shouldn’t be an issue because he won his maiden at 1 mile and since has been racing longer distances

His bounced around at various levels but the claiming type races suit him

A question about the level but if you toss last race, he’s done well overall

 

Race 3

7 – Federalist Papers

Even race last out at BEL in June verse a strong group

Won at KEE win NW1x race going 1 ½ miles

Layoffs seem to be norm for this horse and good works suggest form

Transferred to Brendan Walsh from Chad Brown after last race

I think the distance is correct for a big effort

6 – Virburnum

Won last out at DEL coming from off the pace

The CNL effort was ok but had to be steadied in the latter stages of the race

Ran 2^nd at KD in stakes race last year

One of these types that will make a run at the end to pickup some money

Maybe a chance of winning but the slight class rise suggest to me he will hit the board vs winning

3 – Fairchild

Winning effort at LS last out, bumped and then drew clear

Ran 3 races previously at CD with mixed results but the important race was a 2^nd before winning next out.

Record of 6 starts 2 wins 2 seconds 1 third on the turf shows he in consist

My big question is the distance, this is his longest race of he’s career

Certainly, must be considered based on his efforts in the past on the turf

 

Race 4

6 – Mendel’s Secret

A series of good works coming into this race, was this type of race at KD the target?

Sire was a very good turf runner and stud career just getting started, 2yrs first time starters winning at 19% rate

Mare was an ok runner with 3 wins from 9 starts. Her foals have done well, she has produced stakes winner in graded stakes company. 8 foals 6 winners including turf winners, none of the foals won in their debut

If you go back generations, you find Storm Cat, Seattle Slew, My Charmer, Raise A Native, Icecapade, Bold Ruler, Secretariat, Northern Dancer, Great Lady M, Mr Prospector…not bad family history

4 – Donegal Factor

I like his last work at IND of :59.3B and before some good works but the last one stands out

Sire won grade 1’s on the dirt, among other races. He won in sprints and distance races. He’s produced many good runners on all surfaces but 2yrs on the turf only win at 9% on debut

Mare only won once in 23 starts, this is her first foal to race

Brad Cox/Florent Geroux combination makes this one interesting choice

7 – The Red Fox

No real standout works but he was moved from SAR to CD to prepare for this race

Sire was a champion turf horse and produced many, many graded stakes winners, 2yrs win at 9% on debut

Mare never won in five starts, she’s by champion Kitten’s Joy, this is her first foal

I like this one over the other first timer starter for Chad Brown

 

Race 5

8 – Risky Reward

Something went wrong in last start at KEE, involved early but then nothing

Layoff from April after that race

2 wins at FG early in the year at lower level

All latest works at KEE have been steady and the :47.1B sticks out

Ran 3^rd in stakes race at KD last year, set the early pace but overrun at the end

Bounced around the minor stakes down to OC level

This is a little bit of a step up from where she’s won before

6 – Amalfi Princess

With the pace last out at SAR but a bit wide to move forward and ran 5^th by 4L over the 1 mile inter turf

She won at BEL in OC62,5k race up front with pace then was shipped to CBY for a stakes race in which she ran 2^nd

A winner at KD in the past

Does Mike Maker have the horse properly placed for these conditions

I think so

2 – Red Ghost

Ran 2^nd in stakes race at MTH last out a bit wide, made the lead and then caught

3 races this season, no wins but has 1 second 2 thirds

She has no turf wins, yet

1 win was in a grade 3 race at Pimlico last year

Race at KD 2 years ago, favorite and did nothing off her maiden win

Better this time

 

Race 6

3 – National Security

2 races, on the pace both times winning maiden at IND and then 2^nd at Ellis

Both races at 1 mile

Started out with maiden claiming in at 25k so a starter allowance race make sense

Should be tough here

7 – Wicked Genius

Won at 75k level last out at CD going 1 1/16 as the favorite

Layoff since with 9 works at CDT all were good but the 2 going 1:00B 1:00.3B were best

Ran in maiden sprint at KD last year and lost by 1L

He was claimed for 50k at KEE in April and won the race right after that

Comes in at the right level but this is a good starter allowance group

1 – Path to Success

Has shown plenty of speed in the past running 3^rd last out in tough drive

With inside draw, he should be our front runner

Mixed results a HAW but much better at Ellis

A dirt winner who if can set a reasonable pace should hang on

It’s just of how much used early and turning in for the wire going uphill

 

Race 7

7 – Accredit

He hasn’t raced since he won last year at KD in his last start of 2021, that was a big purse stakes race

3 wins from 7 starts with all wins on the turf

To win, he will need to be at the front of the field based on the past races

A series of good works suggest that he should return to the races ready to go

12 – Spa City

Only 1 turf start in his career, and he ran 3^rd a while back

20 starts on the dirt with 6 wins 3 seconds 5 thirds

Claimed for 80k 2 races back and placed in stakes race at IND for next start

Did ok, running 4^th and moved forward during the race and flattened out

He’s bred of the turf and the breeders has pretty good horses to, Godolphin

This one is a bit of an outside chance but a good in the money record plus a placing in the only turf start suggest to me this is a good bet

1 – Therapist

Made a move in the last race and was blocked and had to alter course and he ran 3^rd at BEL

Placed 2^nd in minor stakes race at BEL going 7F on turf

No wins but 2 placings from 3 starts

I would put him on top but he hasn’t won in 2 years so another one for an in the money finish

 

Race 8

5 – Plus Chic

Started career with a win at AP in 2021 and then race 4^th in stakes also at AP.

Layoff and came back at TAM in OC25k races on the turf, ran 5^th as the favorite

Another layoff, returned on the dirt at 5F to run 5^th after pressing the pace early

Work of :59.2B points to returning to form

A 3yr old in with elders and will be setting the early pace to win

8 – Shannon

Missed last out at Ellis but a 1/2L in allowance sprint

Won maiden start before at KEE with a good speed number

Did not race in 2021 and her first 2 races were in 2020

Based off last race and works, she will be running strong at the end

Brad Cox/Florent Geroux team up with this horse

2 – Two Sixtyone

Set pace in last start in stakes race at IND and went backwards to run 7^th

Better efforts in allowance races with a win at CD going 1 mile on the turf

She won on both the dirt and turf but has only one race at this distance

Has raced at KD before running 4^th in allowance race last year

2 works coming into this race and should be towards the front to have a chance for a placing

 

Race 9

4 – Peace Achieved

One race this year at IND in stakes race running 4^th with some trouble shifting around to get position, moved up

Works after that race have been average

A grade 3 winners at KEE in 2019 but other graded stakes have been less successful runs

After the 1-year break, returned with ok run and he has run and won at KD in the past

I will take a chance here

12 – In Love

Last 2 races have been a disappointment with runs 8^th twice.

But, both these races are grade 1’s vs some very good horses

This is a drop in class, and he is a grade 1 winner

He has a win at KD in stakes race

After 3 dull efforts can he rebound?

Works are just average but I have to put him on my ticket

Favorite but drew wide post

1 – Ramsey Solution

Won last out at GP by 4 1/2L in nice effort even being bumped hard

Transferred to Joseph Saffie

Good record in stakes races including 1 win at KD

No sure of his running style because he’s won on the lead and coming from back in the field

He’s run this distance before at KD and won

The Ramsey like to win at KD and have been the leading owners at the meet in the past

Watch for big effort here

 

Race 10

4 – Heir to Greatness

2 races both times lost position in the running of the race to run 5^th and 4^th

2 works to prep for here, so will the third start be the winning time?

Tried both dirt and turf in those starts and jockey change may help

I willing to try again with this horse here

3 – Growth Capital

Ran towards the lead last out at SAR and was bumped a couple of times in the race

Ran 2^nd 3 times in races before

This is my “try again” type horse because he will get a win at some point

Short price because of this Chad Brown shipper

12 – Levity

Appears to be improving off the first 2 starts with 6^th and 4^th

Made a move in the first race but was too far back to come close to the leaders

More forwardly placed in the last race, being wide and still trying to figure out because he was steadied in the running

Was the last 2 efforts good enough to hit the board here? I think so, because he’s been twice breaking from post 8 and now post 12 so he’s used to being on the outside and mostly likely a bit wide in the race.

Let’s see what happens

Rich’ Ranks

Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: Rail 1 win, 2/3 best, 4-7 penalty, 8+ bonus

12 – DIAS ALEGRES – putting the 2 Wesley Ward horses on top, he’s good with the babies and 1^st time starters

10 – CARNABY STREET – see above

4 – FLOWERDEW – playing trainer angles all the way here, Steve Margolis 27% 1^st time grass, 19% dirt to turf and was decently bet in debut, just outkicked at the end

3 – DESERT TEMPEST – the 1 is probably the better horse, going to play away from the anti-rail bias and play the 3 based some good works

1 – MASTER SOM

 

Race 2 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP Rail 1 winner, 2/3 2 wins, 4-7 bonus and by far best, 8+ penalty

9 – ARTIE’S RUMOR – got a feeling PC horses are the right type for KD, can pick and choose where they want to be on the track, top LP horse, and has the 2^nd best combo of EP & LP

5 – ARGENTELLO – tends to start of slow, but tr Conor Murphy has him running bullets 3 of last 4 works, that’s unusual based on works history, got a feeling they won’t be way, way back today and has 2^nd best LP

7 – HAWK OF WAR – really want to play away from favorites today, but you cannot ignore distance 6/3-2-1, PC horse in the post position wheelhouse

6 – BE HERE

12 – FREEDOM MATTERS

 

Race 3 – 1 5/16 Miles, 7 races, 5 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: strong rail and 8+ bias, 2/3 almost fair, 4-7 penalized

3 – FAIRCHILD – going to be on the lead, +4/6 pace edge, 2 non closers went w2w last year, I don’t believe she’ll have to work hard for the lead in a field full of closers – hate the odds

6 – VIBURNUM – have to respect that she has 2^nd in a KD run at the distance, don’t have to worry if she can run that far, better early fractions last out

7 – FEDERALIST PAPERS – made up ground late in 5 of 8 races, PPs look like the longer the better for her, won easily at 1 ½ miles 2 back

5 – RUSSIAN MAFIA – has a +LP advantage, consistent performer, do worry about the distance, she tends to run he best fresh

4 – DESIGNER READY –

2 – ROUGHLY A DIAMOND 

 

Race 4 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP Rail 1 winner, 2/3 2 wins, 4-7 bonus and by far best, 8+ penalty 

11 – MARGARET BURBIDGE – debut at 3-1 om 104k NGST, clearly bettors and Wesley Ward believe they have something here

2 – EVALUATE – Chad Brown 1^st time starter, by far most expensive at $310km, some nice works, we’ll see

7 – THE RED FOX –
4 – DONEGAL FACTOR – Brad Cox 1st timer, plenty of good works, put Florent Geroux on the horse, duo wins at 30% together +0.69 ROI, tells me Cox believes he has a good horse here

12 – DECANTED

 

Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: Rail 1 win, 2/3 best, 4-7 penalty, 8+ bonus

8 – RISKY REWARD – LS – taking my swing here, left arrow PC horse, down in class, best EP/LP combo, KD 2/0-1-1 – both at distance – tied for best KD #s

3 – RECODED – a lot better ATB last out, TLRSP#, off dirt and turf record says she should like the grass, KD 2/0-1-0

4 – SOCIAL CHATTER – won only KD race, usually runs shorter than today, but PPs suggest 6-7 furlongs might be ideal

6 – AMALFI PRINCESS – KD/Distance 2/1-0-1, cut back in distance looks like it should help here, though Tyler G and Michael Maker 1 win in 30 races together, not a good pairing

11 – SARANYA

2 – RED GHOST

 

Race 6 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP Rail 1 winner, 2/3 2 wins, 4-7 bonus and by far best, 8+ penalty

3 – NATIONAL SECURITY – left arrow horse with the top EP/LP combo, better early in last, tr Brad Cox 28% 2^nd off the break

7 – WICKED GENIUS – tr Michael Maker dropping in class after a win, 3/6 repeat, some nice works getting ready

5 – RONSTADT – not the biggest fan of MCL risers, top LP horse, 2^nd best EP/LP combo, tr Larry Rivelli hits 33% in 3^rd after a layoff

6 – BONUS APPRECIATION – better fractions at 7f vs 6f in previous race, bullet work since, could improve in 3^rd off the bench

8 – CAN’T HUSH THIS

9 – JUST CALL RAY

 

Race 7 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP Rail 1 winner, 2/3 2 wins, 4-7 bonus and by far best, 8+ penalty

7 – ACCREDIT – major drop in class from 700k win at KD, that was a year ago, bullet and go says he’s ready to do it again

6 – MAX K. O. – 1 for 1 at KD, that win was almost the exact same pattern as today, distance 9/3-1-2,

1 – THERAPIST – lowest level in more than a year, consistently puts up better #s than almost all of these horses, don’t like the rail

9 – RUNNIN’ RAY – trying grass for the 1^st time, probably not the easiest place for it, but 7/2-2-1 with this best speed # on off tracks says he should like the switch

12 – SPA CITY

10 – LONG RANGE TODDY

 

Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: Rail 1 win, 2/3 best, 4-7 penalty, 8+ bonus

6 – HEY KITTEN – BB – one of the few +horses on the card, +LP -top EP/LP combo, 1 for 1 at KD/distance

9 – FAST AS FLIGHT – MSW winner in last, hasn’t run since FEB, usually well bet and ITM 4/0-2-1 on turf

8 – SHANNON – tr Brad Cox 28% winner 2^nd off a rest, 31% next out with a beaten favorite, extra furlong really helps here

2 – TWO SIXTYONE – one of the top EP/LP combo horses in the field, TLRSP#

10 – STORM KISS

 

Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 5 races, 4 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: all winners 4+

12 – IN LOVE – 1 for 1 at KD at this level, been competing against strong competition

1 – RAMSEY SOLUTION – horse can win from anywhere on the track, better fractions a 1 1/16 miles vs 1 mile

4 – PEACE ACHIEVED – off for a year, came back to run the race of his life, TLRSP#, concerned about a bounce, yes – but works have been steady since

6 – FLORIFORM

 

Race 10 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP Rail 1 winner, 2/3 2 wins, 4-7 bonus and by far best, 8+ penalty

11 – BLUE DEVIL – left arrow horse with top EP/LP combo, just missed as 71 cent favorite, better fractions, looking to step forward in R2 off the bench

3 – GROWTH CAPITAL – missed as favorite for tr Chad Brown in last, rebounds at 28%, but has been favorite in all 4 races

7 – AXTHELM – well bet in debut, good works getting ready for race 2, turf pedigree #s smoke the rest

6 – TOLKIEN

12 – LEVITY

Kentucky Downs Pace Worksheet