Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
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Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1
9 – Barrett
Hasn’t raced since Dec 2021, finished 10th at GP
Claimed in the race, before better effort but even finish
Layoff, recent works are very good
Mike Maker has him ready?
One concern is the vet scratch at Ellis on Aug 12
With that I will give this one a shot
8 – Ughrouda
Raced at GP in January, first start and look strong early but an even finish to run 4th.
Layoff, works are ok but nothin special
Shadwell owned, transferred to Andrew McKeever
Maybe a good price?
5 – Shady Road
2 efforts both were ok, 3rd and 5th at Ellis and CD
Moves to the turf now
Good works returning to the races since July
George Arnold trains this homebred
Sire is Curlin who turf horse win at 12% and ITM 35%
Mare has produced good turf runners, 48 starts and winning at 27% and all have needed starts before they win (positive ROI too)
Add blinkers should help
Favorite? Maybe but I am looking for a 4-1 price
Race 2
6 – Oscar Award
Far back early last out 12th, moved strongly to be 5th at the top of the straight and ran on for 3rd
Now switch to 1 turn mile, should also help
Trainer has done well with 2yo’s winning at 23% rate from 52 starts
Sire has produced runners too, 31 starts 16% winner percentage and ITM 35% of the time
In reviewing the race, he looks very strong here
12 – Caballo Feliz
A step slow out of the gate in first start, went a bit wide, move up and ran 4th out by 4 3/4L. Better start, better results
Works to that race were consistent but nothing special
Off the last, I think an ITM finish is possible, he will get a wide trip again but at 1/16 of mile less
Sire has not produced many good turf runners and he was a champion sprinter
Mare was a winner and her other offspring was a winner (also by Runhappy) on the dirt
This is one I will take a chance on because I like the first race attempt
11 – Ballesteros
First time starter with 5 very good works at GP
Sire produced many turf runners at the top level
Dam has produced 8 foals 4 winners and they like the turf. One won in his first race. All her foal are males.
Shot at a price and that’s what KD is all about
Race 3
2 – Trobairitz
Not much last out at CNL, saved ground but just an even race around the track
April & May tried stakes company and never a threat
FG won 2 in a row going 5 1/2F
One good work sticks out at CD :47.8B the 2 others are even efforts
Neil Pessin does well lately with horses after a short break winning at 20% rate and positive ROI and also in the claiming ranks at 19%
11 – Sister Annie
Claimed last out for $40k at Ellis, in the race the comment of very keen, ran on the lead and didn’t finish
Blinkers on today, tried twice with a 2nd and close 5th
She’s a frontrunner and has won on a good turf track going
Will her speed hold here with Rafael Bejarano on board?
12 – Champagne Ivy
Nothing in last a SAR going 1 ½ in OC62,5k race
She won here maiden at GP going 1 mile on the turf
She’s has success on the GP AW with 1 win 1 second
Placing her in stakes company has yielded nothing
Her record suggests an in the money finish on the turf running 11 times 1 win 3 seconds 3 thirds
I prefer the outside post position and let’s see if she gets a placing here
Race 4
6 – Julia’s Chardonnay
2 tries at 4 1/2F at KEE and CD were average efforts
Takes a break and works :36.6B and :36.4B for this race
Sire has produced stakes winner on the turf and dirt
Mare won 4 races on the turf in US and France going distances of 7F plus
12 – Kate’s Concerto
Ok works leading up to this first start mainly at CD
Sire is producing turf runners winning at 23% from 26 starts, winners from first start are at 23% in MSW
Mare was a turf runner, and her foals has won on the turf and in stakes races 10 foals, 6 winners
8 – Our Dotsie
Ok works leading to the first start
Trainer wins at 12% rate from 17 starts first time and 13% with turf runners
Her in the money rate is 35% with first timers
Sire was champion turf runner, and his foals are winning at 13% rate from 45 starts and ITM of 38%
Mare didn’t race, her 2 foals to race both have won but not on the turf
Race 5
6 – Accredit
Raced at KD on 9/1 and ran 3rd in allowance race
First run since 9/2021
Had issues in last race but good effort after layoff
Has been running in minor stakes races and winner of allowance at CD
Continues to run at a high level
Turf record 6 starts 3 wins 1 second 1 third
Returning for top effort in this open handicap race
8 – Duke of Hazzard
Ran ok at SAR in restricted stakes race last out and had a few issues
Placed 2nd at BEL in 100k race but the in between race was at IND and not the best of efforts
Previously running in Europe in group races and won group races at Goodwood
He hasn’t won since 2019 so I can play him on top
Should show some speed but ideally trip will be to sit behind the leaders
In the money finish bet
9 – Field Pass
Toss last in grade 1 at CD, showed a little early and then nothing at the end, finished last
Both grade 1 races this season, out of the money finishes
The other 3 races, he’s in the money in grade 3 and 2 minor stakes races
The best his done is winning a grade 2 race at DMR laying close to the lead
Another in the money run?
Race 6
12-Trust Daddy
Last 2 races on the AW at GP were average efforts, one with trouble and the other just faded away at the end
Last season, he ran 2nd at BEL and 8th at AQU in 100k stakes races
Picking because they are adding blinkers, has some speed and had a better than his average workouts of :35.1B and then a maintenance work 6 days later
Yes, I am looking for a price
10 – Favorite Outlaw
In the money in all of his starts 5 starts 1 win 3 seconds 1 third at top tracks
Problem, never ran on the turf before
Sire has done well with foals on the turf overall
Mare was a turf stakes winner but her foals have started on the turf 14 times and 2 winners, so not great
The morning line is interested 6-1, if he remotely likes the turf then it could make this a nice play
8 – St Andrews
Only 1 try on the turf, showed speed and the backup to run 4th at CD going 1 1/8.
He has speed and pace so dropping back to shorter distance makes sense
He won on the dirt his maiden at FG going 6F
And ran a moved race from the turf at Ellis going 1 mile with a 2nd in the mud
They send him to FanDuel in IL for the St Louis Derby and did nothing
Back in distance, ok first effort on the turf
Mike Maker trained
Race 7
6 – Amaryllis Kiss
After an awful first start, ran 3rd at Ellis at 6F and then 2nd missing by a head
On last 2 races, she’s getting closer to victory now the question is turf?
Sire been ok with turf horses, 14% win and 39% in the money
Mare was a dirt horse, graded stakes placed, won on first start
This is her first foal
I am taking this one on form, trainer and rider and hope that transfers to the turf
7 – Quaria Comet
Toss last race in April at KEE, lost all chances at the start after being bumped
First start was a just missed run at TP losing by a nose
Training track works are good and works before the other races are the similar
Sire is ok with turf horses, 11% win and 34% in the money
Mare raced in Brazil most of her career and 11 starts 8 wins some in stakes races
This is her first foal
4 – Rosalita
Lead in last race until the end and beaten by a neck, she had some issues in that race
This was the first time they put her on the lead, the other 3 races she was either in back or near the pace
Sire is below average with turf horses
Mare has produced 10 foals 6 winners and some on the turf
Trainer has a 22%-win rate moving horses from route to sprinters and 67% in the money
I am a bit surprised at the odds of 6-1 morning line
Race 8
11 – Surfer Dude
Toss last, hustled out and then nothing in grade 2 Amsterdam at SAR
Very completive at the allowance level and they have tried other stakes races before without success
No turf experience so why my top choice?
Works since the last race are good but the turf work at SAR stick out for me that they are serious about this race
Sire is Curlin, many, many top turf runners
Mare was a grade 1 winner on the dirt, she has produced top runners including 1 in Japan. Also, 1 offspring was purchased for $2.5 million at auction. Better dirt than turf but…
Dallas Steward trained and he’s always good for a price horse
It’s KD
6 – Cloudy
Won last 2 races on the turf and undefeated on the turf
Races over 1 mile at IND and Ellis
1 turn 6 1/2F shouldn’t be an issue
Worked :36 B at CD is very good coming into this race
Odds are 8-1 morning line but I see much lower by post time
7 – Lyrical Poet
The speed of the race and ran 2nd at KD last year in allowance race at this distance
In that race, it went a bit fast with 1:08.9 at third call
Should hand on for a placing
Race 9
6 – Bourbon Therapy
Has been speedy in all 3 races but it took 3 races to break maiden having some issues in the running, drifting out – 2yo’s
Switch trainers to Mike Maker who’s doing very well at KD
Scratched from another KD race to go here
Works at SAR were ok, a little better at CDT
8 – Reckoning Force
NW but has raced 3 times with 2 thirds and a 4th at SAR and in Ireland at Listowel
Issues in last race, bobbled at the start
Trainer hasn’t won in awhile in the US but is finish in the money 40% of the time
I can’t leave this one off my ticket
4 – King Ice
1 race, ran 5th by 6thL at IND – 7.5L race now switches to 1 turn 1 mile
Watching this race, he was 5 wide and was improving at the end
Can you say “green” needed start
Why add to my ticket?
Last workout :59.4B at IND, best of all these runners in this race
Big price to hit the board for me
Race 10
8 – St Anthony
Tried grade 2 company at DMR last out and didn’t do much
Won twice at GG on the AW and turf
Shipped to SR and won 1 1/16 turf race as favorite with a big surge at the end
Trainer Neil Drysdale only runner at KD
Up and down horse, I see upside in this race vs this group
12 – American Mayhem
2 for 2 on the turf, both races at Ellis and both at 1 mile
In maiden race, he came from the clouds to win
In the last race, he was close to the pace for the win
Coming from the 12 post, I assuming, from the clouds again but…
Short price horse but is on the improve since switching to the turf
10 – Ice Blast
1 race on the turf at Ellis, ran a nice 2nd running in touch with the leaders
Took 4 races to win maiden and did that at LS
Been off since July but one work at Ellis sticks out of 1:00B
Moves up here but if runs anything like his first start on the turf, you must consider
Race 11
11 – Petricor
Tried grade 2 company last out at SAR and it didn’t go well, pulled up
Better at LRL but still not a win, ran 5th by 3+L
4th at CD vs grade 2 company
First start in the US was a winning effort at KEE in allowance race
She won twice in France from 4 races, 1 second at major tracks Deauville, ParisLongchamp
Since her last race, she been only working on the turf with 3 works and they are all good
Whatever went wrong in the last race appear to have been resolved
Bill Mott trained for Juddmonte
10 – Poca Mucha
Won an allowance race last out at SAR by 1L and had to overcome traffic to win, 7L back in the middle of the race
Ran good races on AW in the winter, given a break
This horse has tactical speed and come from behind ability
Steps up in company for the first time but this is another Bill Mott who runs honest races all the time
2 – Burning Ambition
Returns to the races after been off since Oct 2021 then ran 3rd in grade 1 at KEE
Stakes winner at IND
Never out of the money in all her starts 6 starts 4 wins 1 second 1 third
But, races are very spaced out but she wins off layoffs
Works are good but nothing jumps out at you
You will not be getting the morning line of 6-1 on this horse
Race 12
11 – Self Confident
First time starter from the Phipps stable
Trainer wins with firsters at 16% in the money 39%
A mixture of dirt and turf works are good to very good including some starting gate runs
Sire is one of the best right now with many turf winners
Mare was a 3-time winner and has produced 4 foals 2 winners and they are turf runners (Dreams of Tomorrow is 5yo and still in training)
9 – Navy Goat
One start at MTH and made a move but had a wide trip went off as the favorite very short price
Learning experience
1 works since that race and on the turf
Trainer wins at 30% rate move horses from sprint to route with in the money at 50%
Joel Rosario up and just needs a good trip to have a chance
8 – Destine To Race
Moved to 1st turning for home but was caught and passed finishing 2nd by 31/4L, short price on this horse in first effort
Found some problems during the running of the race
Better trip or better-timed run wins here?
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile, 18 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1 bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8+ penalty
5 – SHADY ROAD – better fractions in last despite going 1/16 longer, real nice Auge 25 bullet 1/52, maintenance since
7 – INTRIGUE – left arrow horse in debut, decently bet, expecting some improvement in 2nd career race
2 – JOYFUL APPLAUSE – has been close in last three, can run from the front of a little off the pace
11 – PORONUI – lone PC horse, could be better 3rd off the bench, two good works of three since last
Race 2 – 1 Mile, 18 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1 bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8+ penalty
2 – DECANTED – Chris P angle, Maiden that finished 2nd last out, was at KD, gets Irad today
7 – TEN DAYS LATER – Left arrow horse, top EP/LP combo, TLRSP#, let’s see if he likes grass
6 – OSCAR AWARD – rallied hard in debut, 3f bullet work tells me tr Kenneth McPeek wants to be more forwardly placed
8 – SHERLOCK’S JEWEL – has a +LP advantage and likely gets better in race 2
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs, 5 races, 3 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: none from rail, penalty 2/3, 4-7 bonus, 8+ fair
6 – LASHARA – should be better in the 3rd off the bench, drops from a 75k NGSTK,, 3SP# increases
3 – SARA MIA – 1st time with tr Robertino Diodoro wins at 24% 1st time with a horse, has top LP and EP/LP combo
11 – SISTER ANNIE – if the 14 doesn’t get in, she becomes the pacesetter, 1st off the claim for tr Eddie Kenneally 21% angle
2 – TROBAIRITZ – has done some of her best work with jy Loveberry on board like today.
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 16 races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 fair, 4-7 3 winners, 8+best
10 – IGUAZU – Wesley Ward first time starter, got to have them at 29% winners
5 – TWIRLED – $360k Assmussen/Rosario with some decent works getting ready, although not a fan of the Aug 8 -Aug 27 break of routine, but the last work was sharp
4 – FAME STREET – tr Bret Calhoune won 5/16 2nd starts on grass and the first was OK, five-wide hurt
12 – KATE’S CONCERTO – another first time for Cox/Geroux, good works and top pedigree score
Race 5 – 1 Mile, 18 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1 bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8+ penalty
6 – ACCREDIT – was better in the middle and late in his first start after nearly a year in the barn, should be better in R2
9 – FIELD PASS – flips around after running on the 10th – trainer Michael Maker did once before in 2022 and won
8 – DUKE OF HAZZARD – left arrow horse, got off to a horrible start in last and rallied. A better start is all he will need
11 – TUT’S REVENGE – should be forwardly placed in a race with mostly pressure and closer types, has some the most late pace
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 16 races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 fair, 4-7 3 winners, 8+best
Really tough race
5 – TOP GUN GIRL – has a +EP advantage, is a neck from being undefeated in two on grass, the only question is can he she make it 6 ½ on the lead?
4 – TOO MANY TWIZZLERS – always well bet, should be closing, it’s all in the start for him, he hasn’t broken cleanly in three, a sharp break and he might make EZ work of these
10 – FAVORITE OUTLAW – going to try grass for the first time, only 12% for Asmussen, ran some better fractions last out
1 – SOSUA SUMMER – won his last and PPs say he will be better in 3rd off the bench
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 16 races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 fair, 4-7 3 winners, 8+best
8 – FIDDLE – LS – left arrow horse, Chris P angle, first Lasix and a weight break
12 – POINT WELL TAKEN – another Chris Per, just missed at this level at KD last out as the FAV, tr Claude McGaughey rebounds at 19%
6 – AMARYLLIS KISS – another left arrow, improved in each start after debut, going to try grass for the first time – expect a strong move out of the turn
7 – QUARIA COMET – too much trouble in last, debut on AW with a strong rally says she should like turf and will likely be a bomb
Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 16 races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 fair, 4-7 3 winners, 8+best
Box
7 – LYRICAL POET – +EP horse if the 16 doesn’t get in, missed as favorite in last, tr Wesley Ward hits at 31% next out
8 – SHADOW SPHINX – +LP advantage, down in class and will be a factor last, made up ground in 8 of last 10
1 – EVAN SING – really consistent performer so far, and can win from mid pack and back
10 – SUMMER ASSAULT – has the 2nd best LP, training well for first start since mid July
Race 9 – 1 Mile, 18 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1 bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8+ penalty
2 – REALLY GOOD – won debut with TLRSP#, steady advance and then power move in stretch
5 – CASTLEKNOCK – ships in from Del Mar, won first race on turf with ease after trying dirt in the first two, top EP/LP combo
1 – MAYFIELD STRONG – one of the few distances the rail has done well, tough call over the 8, really improve in 2nd start on turf compared to debut on dirt
8 – RECKONING FORCE – tie TLRSP#, much better late in last, but fractions were slower
Race 10 – 1 Mile, 18 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1 bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8+ penalty
5 – CASTLE LEOCH – tends to run well off the bench, was much better early in last
6 – FUERTEVENTURA – 3SP# increases, should be better in R2 off he bench, a 31% winner for trainer Jonathan Thomas
3 – ROME – if any is going to steal this race, it’s this one ++/ EP edge at 2/4/6f, just needs to make it to 8f
4 – PLAY ACTION PASS – always charging late, a couple of bullets getting ready and runs well fresh
Race 11 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 1 race, won by speed but not w2w from post 4-7
7 – ALMS – top LP and EP/LP combo, distance 4/0-3-0, bullet work between races says the O goes
8 – NAVRATILOVA – should get the trip she wants, TLRSP and bullet work since
6 – CURLY RUTH – has a win on the KD track coming off the bench like today, solid pedigree for distance and surface
2 – BURNING AMBITION – lone P horse in the field and should get the trip he wants 5/3-1-1 on turf
Race 12 – 1 Mile, 18 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1 bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 best, 8+ penalty
4 – LETTER OF GOLD – 2nd by a neck in debut at Sar 105k, Chris P angle again
9 – NAVY GOAT –left arrow horse, going long for the first time, 30% winner for tr Arnaud Delacour
11 – SELF CONFIDENT – looks like the best of the 1st timers and has some of the best pedigree scores
10 – REVENUE TRAIN – left arrow horse, pace #s put him forward and benefits from 1st grass and route
Kentucky Downs Pace Worksheet (R1-R7)
Kentucky Downs Pace Worksheet (R8-R12)
