Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
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Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1
11 – Fracing Nancy – SCRATCHED
Off the claim of 30k at CD, comes into the race with 4 works and change of equipment, blinkers off
In 3 of the 4 races, she’s shown speed and won at TP in a hard-fought battle in April
Nothing in a NW2 at CD
Then entered for the claiming race
Sire hasn’t done much overall but has winners on the turf
Mare was a PA bred and ran in PA during her racing career. She produced turf horses including one horse who ran and won in Russia in at their top-class level
7 – Condiment Girl
Won at KEE in first start on the dirt going 7F, showed good pace
Next start at CD, forwardly placed and then backed up to run last 6th by many, many lengths behind, break from May
Good works, or so they appear, a private training track
Sire has produced good runners.
Mare side, has produced runners that mainly run at the claiming level and won on the turf
The drop back in distance helps, she appears to be more of a sprinter. Looking for a price
5 – Tea Olive
Has been racing strongly in all 4 races, running first, second, third and fourth
Won at first asking, layoff, ran 4th at Ellis, layoff, BEL race, ran 2nd, you get the pattern
She will show speed and has won on the front end
Trained by Wesley Ward, not one of his first stringers but certain useful, well placed
No turf races but…
Sire ok with turf horses but better on the dirt
Mare was NY bred who placed in stake race and ran on both surface, 2 foals the other has run 1 race as a 2yr (unplaced)
Race 2
7 – True Prodigy
First time starters with good even works with the last being 1:00.2Bg at CDT
Bred for the turf with sire a top turf runner with a few turf winners for young sire
Mare placed in graded race, ran 37 times. Foals 4 to race, 2 winners
9 – Spanish Doubloon
Not much last out, running 5th at 7F
Better effort before on the turf at Ellis, run 3rd showing some speed as the favorite
Sire good with many turf winners
Mare raced twice and didn’t win, foals there are 4 to race, 1 winner
Coming back to the turf, should have a better effort
4 – Sundance
Good speed early, nothing late losing by 14+L
Strong works at training track
Switch to Joel Rosario should improve chances
Winner?
Race 3
7 – Smoke Lightening
Won first out at PID going wire to wire in head/head race
Shipped to WO and ran 2nd on turf stakes race next out at 62-1, this time coming from beind
Well placed for a win and get top jockey at KD so far
5 – Toddchero
Won a dirt race at LS first out by leading all the way without issues
Taken to PRM, ran 2nd in stakes race but no match for the winner. So far, that 2yr old winner is undefeated IA bred
Good work coming into the race a RP
First try on the turf and should like it
Florent Geroux picks up the mount, a positive
3 – Limited d’Oro
Won at first asking at BTP very impressively and then a layoff
3 works coming into this race with on at :35.3B then next 2 they backed off
I will take a price shot here with a horse that should like the turf
Race 4
9 – Rithm Nic
Won first out by 6+L at CBY and was between horse during some of the running
Should like the turf but …
James Graham rides this gelding
This is a restricted race for KEE yearling sales for $250k
10 – Kbcya Later
After 4 tries, won last out a SAR making all the running on the turf and good speed number
Fast work coming into this race :47.2B
Outside always helps at KD and should be the favorite off last race
5 – Wico
Interesting that an Irish bred horse went through the KEE yearling sale
Has not won yet, but ran 3rd twice
Both efforts on the turf – SAR and KEE
Wesley Ward trained and taking the blinkers off, he always starts his young horses with blinkers in the first (or two) races, they don’t win, then they coming off
Maybe get the win here, odds are most likely the 2nd choice
Race 5
11 – Pyron
Even effort last out in stakes race at CNL, drops here to allowance company
Last 5 races in stakes races include graded stakes races
He won on the turf at FG
To get into the race, they have to put him in to be claimed
6yr horse, not gelding, interesting. Someone will claimed him, I think
Joel Rosario to ride for Albert Stall
12 – Wayakin
No turf experience but bred to like the turf
He’s been in the money 8 of his 14 races with 3 wins
Not much last out but won at CD the race before
Move to the turf, 4-1 morning line makes him one you have to notice because trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Irad Oritz
8 – Unified Report
Good works coming into the race, well consist works
Ran 3rd at CD last out vs OC80k, wide most of the race but no real threat to win, layoff
He won his first 3 races of his career in restricted state bred company then tried a graded race and nothing
Won at FG in March, then the got too aggressive again, trying stakes company
Better spot but is this the right spot and has won at the OC50k level so not for the win
Race 6
10 – Up to Something
I think so, because he ran a good race last out in the slop at Ellis and rallied up and went passed his rivals
Dirt race, now for the turf and he is bred for the turf
Sire is top sire with winners on all surfaces and many stakes winners
Mare is graded stakes placed and produced some winners too
Outside post, good works, should be ready for top effort
4 – Showgirl Lynne B
Winners of her first 2 races by sitting behind the leaders and going on by at the top of the straight
Second race out was a minor stakes race
Both races on the AW at GP but breeding says she should love the turf
Picks up Florent Geroux for Robert Hess and should be tough in here
8 – Grand Oak
Ran 2nd in first start in the mud at KEE, actually a good effort because the winner is in this race
Won on the turf next out by 4+L while being challenged
Then they shipped her to Ascot for the Queen Mary, nothing, she beat 3 horses in a 21 horse field and was never in the race
Last out at WO, ran 4th in stakes race after layoff
Has some tactical speed to make this race interesting, not the favorite but should attract the bettors based on her races
Race 7
11-Wet Paint
Very good works coming into this race
Sire is produced many good horses and BC Classic Winner
Mare is a turf winner and graded stakes placed at 8.5F turf race
Geroux and Cox team up
Godolphin owned, leading owner here last season
7 – Stay Lost
First start at SAR going 1 1/16 on turf, ran 6th moving up midrace but didn’t finish, needed start
Turf work at SAR for prep to this race
Sire was a BC Classic winner and produced turf winners
Mare was a turf winner in New Zealand, her other foal to race was a turf winner
Trainer has no winners in the country yet but maybe here?
4 – Mended We Stand
Ran 1 mile on the dirt for first start running 2nd with good start, stay behind the leaders but unable to get to the winner
Move to the turf is better spot
Sire champion turf winner and produced winners early in his stallion career
Mare won twice and won on her first start, this is second foal to race, nw first foal
Race 8
10 – Onenightstandards
Last race in January was a 1/2L lost in OC35k 2nd going 1 ½ race
Claimed for 80k at BEL and other race for new owners was at 1 ½ too
Layoff works have been good to very good especially the 1:00.1, :59:2B & 1:00B then 2 maintenance works
Drop in distance is good and qualifies for the race be the 2nd win on the turf was a win at SA for 25k race
Good spot if ready to go and generally Mike Makers horses are ready of layoff
5 – Happy Boy Rocket
Awful effort last out at CD going 11th. Layoff after, toss last
The only other poor effort was in a graded stakes race
No turf but has breeding on the mare side to like turf
Good works and trained by Bill Mott with Joel Rosario riding
Watch out
7 – Penner Ash
At 3yr just made his debut winning at IND by 5L with a strong bid going wire to wire going 1 mile turf
This son of Curlin will be a strong contender in this race
Race 9
5 – Private Creed
Rough race last out with bumping on a number of times in the running
Still finished 3rd by 2L
Won maiden at Ellis by sitting behind the early pace and moving strongly to hold on
Blinkers on will help with the bumping issues
Gets Joel Rosario to ride
Short price?
2 – Sharp Aza Tack
2 races 2 wins both on the turf
Stakes win at MTH last out by 7L
Won maiden at SA by 2 1/2L in a tougher race going wire to wire
On fast work of the 2 preps for this race – :47.2B at KEE
One to beat
8 – Half a Chance
Won last on the dirt should good speed as she did in first start on the turf running 2nd by 3/4L
Flashing speed again and Wesley Ward leaves the blinkers on
Speed numbers were the same for those 2 races
I like the outside speed at KD
Anything can happen with 2yo those
Race 10
6 – Five Prizes
8 tries and 2 seconds 1 third, so far
Tried turf once as a 2yr old in first start at SAR over yielding course in Aug 2021
A bunch of dirt tries in Florida were better but again
Last three races at distance have not been good
Why pick? Blinkers off, she’s run better in the past with no blinkers
Breeding says she should do well on the turf
After 8 starts, you would think Todd Pletcher would recommending drop this horse into a maiden claiming race, but switch surfaces make a change
Irad Oritz to ride
At good longshot for this combination
3 – Suffice
One race at BEL was ok for a first effort, close to the pace early and then nothing left
That was in NOV 2021
Layoff, good work schedule, changed trainers, getting ready for better effort
Another one who should love the turf, let’s see
4 – Paris Kentucky
Ran back of the field (again) and move forward at the end to run 4th by 3L
Blinkers off for this race, that was a 1 and done try last out
12 starts and 1 second 3 thirds
Try again and maybe that longer race is the key for this late running horse
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3
4 – PISTOL – should be close to the pace and has a +LP advantage, 1st time on the grass, has 2nd best pedigree #s
6 – LAUGH AND PLAY – is the only EP horse in the field, top pedigree score, Irad rides, isn’t he winning every race lately?
10 – SONICUS – another 1st time turfer, improved last in each of all his three races
5 – TEA OLIVE
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3
Stright up just playing trainer angles for the conditions
4 – SUNDANCE – tr Rodolphe hitting at 23% in 2nd career start, robust EP #s and was decently bet in his debut
5 – MURKY – tr Wesely Ward wins at 29% with 1st time starters
10 – ICONICUS – tr Wayne Catalano winner 6/14 2nd grass races, probably a big price
6 – RECON
3 – SAM STORMY
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3
8 – STUD LOVIN – won his debut by 7 ¾ lengths and was well bet, top pedigree turf score by a decent margin
7 – SMOKE LIGHTENING – left arrow horse, closer that should be more forward today, dropping in from NGSTK where he missed by just ¾ lengths
6 – PANAMA – coming in from England, well bet in both races and both were on good surface, looks like he can rate or close
5 – TODDCHERO – working well for his first race since early July, finished a well beaten 2nd in NGSTK last out
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3
5 – WICO – LS – left arrow horse, tied for the top pedigree scores, better fractions in last
4 – MO STASH – was well bet in hard fought debut win, not usually a fan of MSW risers, but tr Victoria Oliver hits at 29% after the maiden win
7 – ANGEL OF EMPIRE – has almost ++++ LP advantage based on debut, really like the Aug27 work at CD fastest of 98
10 – KBCYA LATER – TLRSP#, tr Joe Sharp wins 2nd grass rate at 30%, speed might not be the best fit
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs, 3 races, all off the pace – PP: 1 from 2/3, 4-7 and 8+
10 – SUPER DESIGN – has a win at KD in one try and it was his best performance, tends to run well fresh
7 – LIGHT FURY – turf 12/5-2-3 second start for trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at 18%, could be better in 2nd off the break
11 – PYRON – interesting that Rosario rides here instead of the 10 who he won on in the 10s last race
6 – FORE LEFT –
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3
4 – SHOWGIRL LYNNE B – won a minor NGSTK in last, undefeated in 2 on AW, usually translates to turf, a lot of speed in here and has some of the best LP#s
1 – PROMISE OF HOPE – trying grass for the 1st time, been well bet in both starts, toss out last G# start and run back to debut
3 – MOVE IT BABY – benefits from all the speed scratches,
7 – HAPPY GAL
Race 7 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: 1-3, 1 win from each, 4-7 big bonus, 8+ penalty
This is an anything can happen race for sure
10 – STELLAR LADY – better early in last, TLRSP#, trainer Kenneth McPeek hits a 41% in 2nd turf try
4 – MENDED WE STAND – pressure horse with the top LP and EP/LP combo, issues in debut that if she straightens out could lead to winners’ circle
11 – WET PAINT – looks like the top 1st timer in the race, Cox and Geroux is a winning combo with a $0.13 ROI
2 – DON’T GO CHANGING – closed after getting off to a slow start in debut, a better start is all that’s needed
Race 8 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: 1-3, 1 win from each, 4-7 big bonus, 8+ penalty
10 – ONENIGHTSTANDARDS – distance 3/2-0-0, has raced well coming off the bench like today, decent works getting ready
12 – MAZUMA – not the biggest fan of MSW risers after 5 tries, but always close at the end and very consistent performer
1 – MR. TIP – not a fan of the rail, but kind of hard to write off Irad right now, missed by just a ½ in only KD run, was 1 mile, distance 6/1-2-1
7 – PENNER ASH –
Race 9 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3
2 – SHARP AZA TACK – undefeated in a pair of races, much better fractions in race 2, TLRSP# by a decent amount
5 – PRIVATE CREED – better times last out, has some of the most late kick in a race filled with early speed
6 – ACCIDENT
1 – BOURBON THERAPY
Race 10 – 1 5/16 Miles, 7 races, 5 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bonuses 8+ best, 2/3 fair, 4-7 penalty
12 – PERSONAL BEST with 10 scratching, only PC horse, I think one of them wins, a lot better late in his last, top LP and has a bullet work between races
11 – QUALITY STAR – TLRSP#, another that should have his best at the end, but was a lot better early in last, 2nd by a neck, Chris P angle
3 – SUFFICE – left arrow horse, been off since November, if she comes out with same EP as debut, should have the lead after 6f, right fractions is all it would take to hold on
1 – SOLIDARITY
Kentucky Downs Pace Worksheet (Races 1-7) 
Pace Worksheet Continued (Races 8,9,10)
