Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
PARX Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – I’m Thirsty – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing earning the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
6 – Taylor’s Belle – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today and she has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-3-1).
1 – Quiet Please – The rail post is winning at 20% clip, and she drops in class today.
2 – Party in the Sand – She has won three races at PARX Racing and today’s distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
3 – Florencia
5 – My Masterpiece
Race 2
5 – Don’t Tell Frankie – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing earning the highest last race speed rating – She has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – The trainer wins 25% of the races in Maiden Claiming contest and she can improve at the shorter distance.
3 – Sprinkle This – She ran 2nd vs tougher in last her last race at PARX Racing, drops in class today, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer wins 46% of the races with 1st time Lasix.
7 – Without a View – She has finished 3rd in the last two races in a row, has a high % winning trainer and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Ardean– She ran 5th in her last race at PARX Racing after breaking slow and drops in class today.
Alternate:
2 – Pink Vodka
1 – Charly’s Choo Choo
Race 3
4 – Chance Occurrence – Her Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 1 stakes winner, the trainer wins 20% of the races in sprints and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-3-1).
3 – Amira Wins – The trainer wins 18% of the races in Maiden Special Weight contest.
2 – Condescending – The trainer wins 20% of the races in sprints and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-2-2).
6 – My True Passion – Her dam has 3 winners from 6 starters, and she has a decent workout on 16Apr Parx 4f ft :47.4 Bg6/47.
Alternate:
1 – Now Act Surprised
5 – Enchanted Princess
Race 4
1 – Fearless Fly – He has finished in the money in his last three races at PARX Racing, winning the last one by closing from deep, drops in class today and the trainer wins 18% of the races with horses that won their last claiming race.
8 – Teller – He has a high % trainer, drops in class today, should improve while returning to a route and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-0-0).
4 – Sophos – He likes the track finishing in the money in 55% of the races, winning 22% of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Jarlian – He likes the distance and PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-1-5)
Alternate:
6 – Sailor Again
3 – Commissioner Dave
Race 5
4 – La Regalada – She has finished in the money in her three career races at PARX Racing, finishing 2nd in her last race only losing by a ½ length earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 25% of the races in the 2nd race off a layoff and she has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-3-1).
3 – Cup of Life – She ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing – Her best dirt speed is close to the Avg winning speed and a Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-1-5).
7 – Mountain Lilly – After being off for 4-months she showed plenty of speed for most of her last race beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer wins 18% of the races in the 2nd race off a layoff and she may improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Outline – She went up in class for her last race and was not competitive and now drops back down for today’s contest -The trainer wins 30% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and she can improve while returning to a sprint – Blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
1 – Shewearsthepants
2 – Cinnamon Dream
Race 6
5 – Wonder City – She has won three out of five races this year including winning her last race at PARX Racing, earning the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Malibu Anthem – She finished in the money in the last four races, winning two of them and finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – She drops in class today.
4 – Carmeltini – She finished in the money in the last four races, finishing 2nd in the last one and the trainer wins 17% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
2 – Shirley Greene – She showed a significant improvement in her second race after being off for three months. Switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
6 – Sour Mash
1 – Holmdel Park
Race 7
1 – Sharp Red Eagle – He has finished in the money in three of his four career races, and the rail post is winning at 28% clip -The trainer wins 100% of the races when going from a Sprint-Route-Sprint.
7 – Allevare –He finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 20% in sprint races and he has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-2-2).
6 – The Honorable One – He had no chance in his last race as his rein broke and he did not finish the race – He has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Rex Kwon Do – He has a lot of early speed and may improve at the shorter distance, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters(tie).
Alternate:
3 – Mr Sandman
5 – Black Light
Race 8
6 – Dancing Kiki – She finished 2nd in last race at PARX Racing after coming in from Aqueduct, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer wins 20% of the time in the 2nd after claiming a horse.
5 – Owen’s Pleasure – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing – She has a high % winning Jockey, a decent workout on 18Apr Parx 4f ft :48.2 B 2/10 and a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (20 7-5-0).
2 – Tonal Vision – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), the trainer wins 32% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-1-5).
1 – Tilsa – She finished 4th in her last race at PARX Racing after a very wide trip and has a High % winning Jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Cloud Skipping
8 – Fed Policy
Race 9
9 – I Am Redeemed – He took three months off and then won his first race back easily at PARX Racing – He earned the highest last race speed rating, and he has a high % winning trainer – The trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-0-0) and he has a good 5F workout on 16Apr Parx 5f ft 1:00.3 B 2/22.
2 – Beren – He ran 2nd in last race last November but has been steadily working out for his return – He has a high % winning Jockey who has in last 7 days has this record (10 3-2-2).
8 – Far Mo Power – He has finished in the money in all five races of his career races, winning three. He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money 100% of the time winning 60% of the races and likes the distance finishing in the money 100% of the time winning 100% of the races.
4 – Fortheluvofbourbon – He has finished in the money in nine out of twelve races at PARX Racing, winning six of them and has a High % winning trainer and Jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Splicethemainbrace
3 – Wait for It
Alternate:
Race 10
5 – Philadelphia Belle – She has finished in the money in the six out of eight races at PARX Racing, winning four of them – The trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
1 – Ninetypercentbrynn – She ran 3rd but was elevated to 2nd after a disqualification in her last race after she experienced a lot of trouble when in tight and checking at the1/8 – She will be closing to try and win.
6 – Cinnabunny– She ran 4th after experiencing trouble when she came wide into the stretch in her last race – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of Sprint races.
9 – Flattering Ruby – She just loves winning as she won her last four races and has won 32% of her career races.
Alternate:
7 – Minding Millie
4 – Billieanne
Race 11
10 – Full Send – He ran 2nd in last race – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; he has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who has in last 7 days has this record (20 7-5-0).
6 – Inventionist – He finished 3rd in the his last two races in a row and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (18 5-1-5).
1 – Scotch Rock’s – He finished 3rd for the second time in a row in his last race receiving the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he likes the track.
2 – E T’s Super Star – He ran 6th in his last race after facing tougher competition earning the highest last race speed rating (tie) – He now will try an easier field – He has a high % winning trainer, and a good 4F workout on 16Apr Prx 4f ft :47.4 Bg6/47.
Alternate:
3 – Willy the Shoe
9 – Happy Back
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail and inside 3 bias
1 – QUIET PLEASE – is the only horse in the field to show improvement in her last, all the others regressed
2 – PARTY IN THE SAND – gets jy Luis Rivera back and returns to a class where she finished 2nd
4 – I’M THIRSTY – is the lone w2w winner in her last 10 races, if she gets the lead, she might go coast to coast
5 – MY MASTERPIECE – sizeable drop in her second start after coming in from Gulfstream, hoping she’ll be better in her second try across the Parx track
Race 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, 56 races, 35 won by speed, 18 w2w – PP: Big rail Bias, 2/3 & 8+ > 4-7
8 – ARDEAN – has the top EP#s by a decent margin and improved his LP# in her last, drops in class
5 – DON’T TELL FRANKIE – is the other E horse in the field with the 8, TLRSP#, tr Robert Reid, jr 25% winner MCL vs 19% overall
3 – SPRINKLE THIS – could have the most upside as the most lightly raced horse with just two races, gets fist Lasix tr Anthony Pecoraro hit 13/28 and has some EP
1 – CHARLY’S CHOO CHOO – gets a weight break, 1st Lasix and makes her 3 YO debut, sometimes horses come back big in at 3
Raec 3 – 2 furlongs, no races to speak of
4 – CHANCE OCCURRENCE – $55k horse, jy/tr combo Abner Adorno and John Servis winners 2/5 with +6.28 ROI
6 – MY TRUE PASSION – 4f work of 47.4 is the best 4f work in the group
5 – ENCHANTED PRINCESS – straight odds play, could be the longest price on the board, but jy/tr combo Courtney Gilardo and Edward Coletti Jr ITM 5/6 with +0.43 ROI
2 – CONDESCENDING – ML favorite just in case
Race 4 – 1 1/16 miles, 22 races, 14 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: 4+ 2x better than 2/3, Zero rail wins
7 – LAWLESSNESS – ran better fractions in his last w/ ATB improvement, generating TLRSP#
6 – SAILOR AGAIN – the last race was better than it looks on paper, ran about a second faster, tr/jy combo of Silvestre Gonzalez and Everton Smith 2/2 with +17.40 ROI
8 – TELLER – strong jy/tr combo here too, Abner Adorno and Penny Pearce won 8/19 and ITM 14/19 for +2.08 ROI
2 – JARLIAN – the one might be better, but cannot overlook the rail is 0-22 in the winners’ circle, this is a $210k horse that should be better in 2nd off the bench, weight break and 4/2-2-0 at the distance
Race 5 – 5 ½ furlongs, 46 races, 36 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: 4+ a little better than inside 3, slight 8+ bonus
1 – SHEWEARSTHEPANTS – showed EP in last, jy upgrade to Franke Pennington, two bullet works, lone true MSW dropper
4 – LA REGALADA – TLRSP# and should be better in 2nd off the sidelines, tr Juan Guerrero hits at 26% vs 14% overall
7 – MOUNTAIN LILLY – has the top EP#s here and best EP/LP combo,
3 – CUP OF LIFE – Parx 7/0-3-3, ran much faster fractions in the slop last out, 3 SP# increases
Race 6 – 1 mile 70 yards, 76 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail and inside 3 bias
2- SHIRLEY GREENE – LS – won by 6 the last time Ruben Silvera rode and lone run at distance/track, all or nothing at Parx 5/3-0-0
5 – WONDER CITY – TLRSP#, ATB improvement similar fractions at 1 mile as 7 furlongs
7 – MALIBU ANTHEM – is one that can pop at Parx 8/4-1-1, is the lone closer in the field and the other 6 can pressure the pace
1 – HOLMDEL PARK – tough call over the 4 , but the rail hits at 19% and drops in class
Race 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, 56 races, 35 won by speed, 18 w2w – PP: Big rail Bias, 2/3 & 8+ > 4-7
3 – MR SANDMAN – should be better in his second start off the break, ITM 6/1-1-2
7 – ALLEVARE – also making his second after a layoff, strong work between races, 2nd time Lasix 27% winner for trainer John Servis
2 – REX KWON DO – tied for TLRSP# and gets a weight break here, shortening up with early speed
1 – SHARP RED EAGLE – first two races at PARX were good enough to win here, but regressed a lot at the start of her 3 yo campaign
Race 8 – 1 mile, 47 races, 28 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: 4-7 best, inside 3>8+
5 – OWEN’S PLEASURE – a little better fractions in her last, going from 7f to a 1 mile, looks like she likes extra distance
2 – TONAL VISION – tied for TLRSP#, much better 2/4f #s in last, missed as FAV, tr Juan Guerrero rebounds at 32% vs 14%
6 – DANCING KIKI – should be better in 2nd start off the bench and second at Parx after NYRA track drop
1 – TILSA – 3 wins in 10 at Parx, zero wins in 13 runs elsewhere, better in the first half of last race
Race 9 – 7 furlongs, 75 races, 51 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: slight inside 3 bias
9 – I AM REDEEMED – is undefeated two in two at the distance, TLRSP#, should be as good, maybe better in the 2nd off the bench
4 – FORTHELUVOFBOURBON – winner 6/12 at PARX, ITM 10/12, could benefit from a fast pace as an EP horse
3 – WAIT FOR IT –has the top PARX numbers, been off since September, bullet work on April 18, horse for the course 18/6-6-1
8 – FAR MO POWER – hard choice over #2 (and others), 5/3-1-1 so far, better fractions in last, BTN FAV, tr Louis Linder, jr rebounds at 22%
Race 10 – 7 furlongs, 75 races, 51 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: slight inside 3 bias
Tough race
6 – CINNABUNNY – should see a lot of speed in front of her, can sit close to the pace and run by late
5 – PHILADELPHIA BELLE – won her last with ease, probably won’t get as easy as a lead, but has shown the ability to win without the lead
10 – I’M THE TALENT – won her last with a major mid move, extra furlong could help in 2nd start after a layoff
9 – FLATTERING RUBY – difficult take over #3, but winner four in a row, and #3 blew a tire in last and didn’t recover w/o time off the last couple of times #3 blew a tire
Race 11 – 6 furlongs, 112 races, 73 won by speed, 35 w2w – PP: rail won 6, otherwise slight inside out bias
10 – FULL SEND – last race was better than it looks on paper, stronger pace #s and a little better fractions
2 – E T’S SUPER STAR – decent drop, has a win and place at the distance, tie TLRSP#
3 – WILLY THE SHOE – big drop, 2nd off track drop from GP, 2nd start with tr Dale Bennett winner 6/18, 4/10 first time blinkers
1 – SCOTCH ROCK’S – rail did better at the distance last week, could be at his best in 3rd off the bench, was the best in only other pair of 3-race cycles
