Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Fair Grounds Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: LA Downs
Fair Grounds Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hays Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Reckless Sergeant – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – I’m a Custom to It – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
7 – Pat Hand Girl – Highest last race speed rating (tie) – Should improve at the longer distance – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-1).
2 – Lake Runner – The trainer wins 22% of the races when his entries compete in a 2nd route race.
Alternate:
5 – Looking Hot
6 – Bad Gal Riri
Race 2
8 – Tiz Light the Way – Won his last race at the Fairgrounds and the Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 4-2-0).
2 – Big Falcon Rocket – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-1).
1 – Foolish Steve – Won his last race at the Fairgrounds – The trainer wins 27% of the races when his entries return to race after winning their last race.
10 – Upham – Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and had won the race before at the Fairgrounds
Alternate:
3 – Freedom Factor
9 – Indy Tourist
Race 3
5 – Younmehoneybunny – Ran 2nd vs similar in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Blue Ridge Queen – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her early speed running style helps chances.
2 – Midnight Trip – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a high winning % Jockey – The rail post is winning at 24% clip
1 – Star’s Dream – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
Alternate:
7 – Two With a Ten
8 – Nine Line Bind
Race 4
10 – Money Well Spent – Won three out of the last four races – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
5 – G’s Deadline – Ran 2nd vs similar in her last race – She has a high % winning trainer and highest last race speed rating (tie).
3 – Spellbinding – Won her last race at the Fairgrounds and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie).
6 – Savvy Shipman – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-2).
Alternate:
11 – Theboyzgalaxy
4 – Top Ten Duchess
Race 5
3 – Shoetrick – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 18% of the Maiden Claiming races he enters a horse in – May improve at the longer distance.
6 – T G’s Nelson – Drops in class today
2 – Mosh Pit – Drops in class today – Has a High % winning trainer – The trainer wins 30% of the races when going from Maiden to Maiden Claiming – Good 5F workout (Feb-06)
4 – Gran Muchaco – May improve while returning to a route – Good 31Jan FG 3f ft :37.3 B 1/3
Alternate:
1 – Tizabigmick
Race 6
5 – Zen – Finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Honey Run – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the races Maiden Claiming – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 5-2-1).
6 – Dial Ten for G – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race – Trying grass for the first time.
2 – C C’s Cowgirl – 4-Wide into the stretch affected performance.
Race 7
1 – Short Summer Dress – Won her last race at The Fairgrounds and the rail post is winning at 22% clip – The trainer wins 25% of the races first race after a claim.
2 – Australasia – Ran a disappointing race last July in a G3 affair and drops in class today – The trainer wins 33% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-3-2).
3 – Euphoric – Didn’t seem to like the turf and now is returning to Dirt – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the races when moving from turf to dirt -Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 5-2-1) – good 4F workout (Feb-08).
4 – Palio Flag – Switches to a high % winning jockey ñ Drops in class today
Alternate:
6 – Assertive Style
Race 8
7 – T D Dance – Has not raced for more than 7 months but has steadily been working out to compete in today’s contest – Ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race – Drops in class -The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-3-2).
9 – Cash Logistics – Won two out of the last three races – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3) -Good 4F workout (Feb-06).
2 – Bemma’s Boy – Won last race at the Fairgrounds and has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Mr. Hustle – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-2) – Good 4F workout (Feb-06)
Alternate:
3 – Perfect Speighty
Race 9
3 – Gallant Star – Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race – The trainer wins 27% of the races with entries in claiming races – He has highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Money and Me – Won last his race at The Fairgrounds and has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 21% of the races in 3rd race off a layoff – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 5-2-1).
6 – Perfect Perigee – Won last race at The Fairgrounds and the trainer wins 25% of the races 1st race after a claim.
8 – Chambliss– Ran 3rd vs similar in his last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Mean Cannon
7 – Harbor Knight
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile: 31 Races, 21 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: strong rail/inside 3 bias
4- Reckless Sergeant – QTA last raced on Jan 28, 2nd half improvement in last race
3 – Im a Custom to It – should be pacesetter, not a lot of other speed, better race position in last, inside 3 draw,
5 – Looking Hot – two seconds and thirds in last 4 routes, could be another competing for the lead, Top Pedigree, Denzel horse
7 – Pat Hand Girl – small drop from 12.5-10, early and late race improvement in her last, QTA last Jan 30
Race 2 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf: 31 Races, 17 stalkers/closers, 6 w2w -PP: 4+ much > than 1,2,3, rail penalty
8 – Tiz Light the Way – LRSP>PAR, much better fractions and in race pace #s, 3SP# increases, always well bet
4 – Sharpendup – sneaky better early fractions last out, 2f pace improvement, BIGGEST DROP 58-19
1 – Foolish Steve – top LP#s by a good margin if no 12, across the board in-race pace improvement, LRSP>PAR, 3 SP# Increases
10 – Upham – improve form in last, now worse than 4th in last four turf routes,
Race 3 – 1 Mile: 31 Races, 21 won by speed, 14 w2s – PP: strong rail/inside 3 bias
2 – Midnight Trip – improved fractions and late pace #s, gets rail, TOP EP/LP combo with top LP, 3 SP# Increases
6 – Blue Ridge Queen – top EP#s by a little, faster fractions at 1m vs 6.5 furlongs, ITM 4/5 at distance
1 – Stars Dream – ITM 7/9 at FG, ITM 2/2 at distance, Top Pedigree
5 – Younmehoneybunny – Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, early and late pace improvement in last
Race 4 – 1 Mile Turf: 52 Races, 31 won by stalkers/clsrs, 10 w2w -PP: PPs play fair
5 – Gs Deadline – Top LP#, finished 3r vs many of these last, definitely improving,
3 – Spellbinding – likely to be a pacesetter with #10, E/M/L pace improvement in last, 7/4-2-0 at distance, including last 2
10 – Money Well Spent – winner 5/8 on turf, 3rd off a layoff, but concerned with declining performance in last
6 – Savvy Shipman – 3rd off a layoff, last was much better than it looks on paper according to 2/4f pace#s and much better fractions
Race 5 – 1 Mile 70 yards: 42 Races, 26 won by speed, 10 w2w -PP: Small inside bias
2 – Mosh Pit – Tom Carley DROP MSW 46 MCL 14, Tr: Thomas Amoss Ws 18/69, 2 good works since last race
4 – Gran Muchaco – QTA – ran last on FEB 4, Top Pedigree
5 – Path to Success – another TC DROP MSW 40 MCL 14, TPRLSP#, first Gelded
1 – Tizabigmick – showed early speed in last, better 2f/4f pace #s, BTN fav dropping in class
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf: 31 Races, 17 stalkers/closers, 6 w2w -PP: 4+ much > than 1,2,3, rail penalty
7 – Honey Run – ignore last, even still better 2F pace #s, Biggest DROP MSW 46-MCL 23
5 – Zen – 3rd off a layoff, race positions improvement, Top Pedigree, best LP# if 13 doesn’t get in
3 – Clara Belle – also 3rd after a layoff, drop back to MCL 30k, strong LP # increase, two decent works since
8 – American Deputy – debut on turf wins this, 21F of goods works since December 28
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs: 150 Races, 110 won by speed, 57 w2w – PP: strong rail, inside three and 4-7>8
1 – Short Summer Dress – Top EP#s, EZ win in last w/o being pushed, dirt 6/4-1-0, Distance 7/3-0-1
3 – Euphoric – returns to dirt 10/3-3-1, distance 9/3-3-1, FG 3/2-1-0, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, DROP 75-55, bullet works on Feb 8
2 – Australasia – DROP 100-55, 6/6 of fast dirt, 2/2 at FG, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, long layoff w/ only OK works
4 – Palio Flag – j/T combo of Reylu Gutierrez and Asmussen w/ 3/7 together, 6 HQ races in 7 races
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf: 31 Races, 17 stalkers/closers, 6 w2w -PP: 4+ much > than 1,2,3, rail penalty
7 – T D Dance – BTN FAV, tr Brad Cox rebounds 165/500, long layoff, winner 2/3 fresh starts
6 – Spanish Kingdom – has run well off the break too, good works getting ready, top Jockey
2 – Bemmas Boy – can’t ignore the back class, been off for more than a year, works are OK
5 – Lucky Curlin – 3rd off the bench, improved form across the board in last, tough choice with MR HUSTLE, but taking closer over speed
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs: 150 Races, 110 won by speed, 57 w2w – PP: strong rail, inside three and 4-7>8
4 – Money and Me – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, improved pace #s across the board, 3rd after a layoff, 3rd was best of only other 3 race cycle
6 – Perfect Perigee – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, TOP EP#s by a little bit, 1st off the claim tr: Jose Camejo 11/44
3 – Gallant Star – 3rd off a layoff, improved 2f/4f and LP#s, only 2 wins were in 4 at distance/ 0-5 at any other lengths
1 – Mean Cannon – tough call with #8 CHAMBLISS -taking the high win rate on the post
