Horse Racing Today – Monday, February 21, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Terry and Rich discuss…

Horse Racing Picks

Santa Anita Full Card Picks

Terry’s Best Bet

Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Picks: PARX

Santa Anita Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1

4 – Secret Club – Finished 3rd despite trouble during the race – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).

5 – Nerves of Steel – Ran 2nd in last race only losing by a head with Jockey Mike Smith returning to ride- Nerves of Steel has the highest last race speed rating.

1 – La La Land – Beaten only 1- length in his last start – Has a decent workout 12Feb SA tr.t 4f ft :49 H 5/20

3 – Doc Adams – Finished 3rd in his last race -. Breeding suggests he will like the grass and Dam has produced 1 Turf winner – Blinkers added today

Alternate:

7 – East Rand

2 – Explosive

Race 2

5 – Today Matters – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race losing ground in the turn – He has the highest last race speed rating.

4 – Prince Ziggy – May improve while returning to a route – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – A Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-2-2)

2 – Verragio – Should improve at the shorter distance- Good Trainer.

3 – Cross Indian – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 18% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes

Alternate:

1 – Whiskey Vision

6 – Real Pouch

 

Race 3

1 – Active Account – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race after being off slow/lost path; was 4-2wide – Has the highest last race speed rating.

6 – Gerlach’s – After winning two races in a row and then finished in 5^th place after stumbling in the last race – Should improve while returning to a sprint.

5 – Quick Finish – Beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs tougher (on Turf) in last start – May improve while returning to Dirt – Drops in class today – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Sharp 5F workout (Feb-13)

3 – Weston – Figures to improve while returning to Dirt – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 25% of the time with 1st time Lasix Trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (7 4-1-1).

Alternate:

2 – Rebel War

4 – Sly

 

Race 4

5 – Kitten’s Kid – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race earning the highest last race speed rating – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters – High % winning trainer.

4 – Self Isolation – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Bullet workout on 08Feb Slr 4f ft :47.2 H 1/14.

6 – Ela Calimera Mou – Ran 4^th in her last race after being crowded at the start and coming 3-4wide into the stretch– The trainer wins 33% of the time with the 2nd start w/turn- Jockey in last 7 days in the last has this record (16 4-2-2).

1 – Royally Command – Ran a disappointing last race but was troubled in the race. Should do better this race.

Alternate:

2 – Tiz My Princess

3 – Shez Our Arch

 

Race 5

5 – Becca Taylor – Undefeated in 5 career starts winning her last race at GGF. She has a High % winning trainer and has the highest last race speed rating – The jockey in last 7 days has this record (19 5-6-5).

4 – Super Game – May improve while returning to Dirt – The trainer wins 18% of the time when Turf to Dirt – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

3 – Smiling Shirlee – Trained by the same trainer Brian Koriner that trains Super Game – May improve in 2nd start since layoff.

2 – Omg It’s Jessica – Won the race before her last one at Santa Anita and then tried a distance race and ddi not fair well- Now back to a distance she can handle.

Alternate:

1 – Governor Goteven

 

Race 6

3 – Cinnte Winnte – Finished 3rd in last race after trouble in the upper stretch – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.

1 – Agreetodisagree – Finished 4^th in the last race after she steadied at the 3/8 and checked at the 1/4 – Jockey in last 7 days has this record (19 5-6-5) – Good 4F workout on 13Feb SA tr.t 4f ft :48.1 H 2/22.

5 – Jimmyssmokedcarrot – Finished 3rd in last race – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Sharp 4F workout on 14Feb Slr 4f ft :47.4 H 4/6.

6 – Varoma – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race after having trouble in the race – Jockey Mike Smith returns to ride.

Alternate:

4 – Badger Kitten

2 – Cecile’s Chapter

 

Race 7

3 – Wilder Than Most – Won the last two races in a row at Santa Anita – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-6-5).

2 – Touchdown Brown– The trainer wins 18% of the time with dirt starts – Sharp 4F workout (Feb-14).

4 – Brickyard Ride – Won last race at Santa Anita leading all the way – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 22% of the time with entries in Non-Graded Stakes – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

1 – Seattle Bold – Coming in from GGF and will go to the front with Brickyard Ride – Chance to improve while trying Dirt – Blinkers off.

Alternate:

2 – Peaceful Transfer

 

Race 8

5 – Rocky Gibraltar – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start, has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – Heavily Bet in debut – High % winning jockey.

7 – Centre Circle – Finished 3rd in only start – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-2-2).

8 – Oubabe – Finished 7^th in last race after Stumbling badly and being bumped at the start – Lasix added – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-6-5).

4 – Kid Stole a Kiss – In from Northern California, last raced last July but has several sharp workouts in a row – Lasix added

Alternate:

10 – Disko Tribute – Breeding suggests he will like the grass-Well Bred.

9 – Orth

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 1 Mile Turf: 41 Races, 28 won by speed, 12 w2w -PP: Strong inside 3 Bias

4 – Secret Club – 1^st since Jan 2, 14F of fast works, Top Jock F Prat, BTN FAV, 2^nd Start w/Tr Rueben Alvarado 4/11 – likes to hang late

5 – Nerves of Steel – ITM @ SA 5/1-3-1, Distance 7/2-3-1/ Turf 9/2-4-1, yet to win off bench, TPLRSP#, LRSP>PAR, 24f works since last

1 – La La Land – high win rate rail, close vs many of these last out, Top LP#s, 3SP# Increases, OK works

3 – Doc Adams – taking a shot here, just in case, numbers are the same as #2 EXPLOSIVE, has top EP#s, ITM 2/2 on AW, 1^st go on turf, whereas 2 is 0-4 on grass

 

Race 2 – 1 Mile: 33 Races, 25 won by speed, 6 w2w -PP: mostly fair, 4-7 with a slight edge

5 – Today Matters – TLRSP#, QTA – Ran Feb 6, 2^nd off layoff, some of her best in race #s in last, Top Pedigree, 3SP# Increase

2 – Verragio – Likely to be pacesetter, LP improvement in last, decent maintenance work between races,

4 – Prince Ziggy – 3^rd after a layoff, was best of the three in the only other 3-race cycle, significant LP improvement in last race

3 – Cross Indian– tough call with the 1 WHISKEY VISION, but EP/LP # a little better, jockey higher win rate, only DROP in the race 34-24

 

Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 17 Races, 11 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: strong inside 3, zero winners 8+

3 – Weston – 1^st time Lasix with EP, 2^nd after a layoff, should be same or better than last, DROP 70-26, solid in race # in last

5 – Quick Finish – last race Jan 7, 19f of works since, Denzel on Dirt 14/1-6-2, TOP LP#s by decent margin, DROP 40-26

6 – Gerlachs – Top Pedigree, DROP 69-26, Tie TOP EP #s, 3^rd after a layoff, decent work on Feb 12, but some in race regression in last

1 – Active Account – tough call w/ #2 REBEL WAR, but finished ahead of RW 2/3, and extra ½ should help

 

Race 4 – 1 Mile Turf: 41 Races, 28 won by speed, 12 w2w -PP: Strong inside 3 Bias 

5 – Kittens Kid – Denzel Dylan at SA 2/-0-2-0, Distance 2/0-2-0, Turf 4/0-4-0, Top Pedigree, better fractions in last

4 – Self Isolation – finished behind #5 in last, fading late, some early race regression, Top EP#s,

6 – Ela Calimera Mou – trouble in last, closer that gets off to a slow start,

1 – Royally Command – probably the only with a chance to shock, has some early speed, gets the rail, first race since May 16, 27F works since Jan 2

 

Race 5 – 6 Furlongs: 39 Races, 36 won by speed, 22 w2w -PP: strong inside three bias

5 – Becca Taylor – has the Top EP#s, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, undefeated in 5, most haven’t been close, but toughest competition here?

2 – Omg Its Jessica – just missed vs top choice in debut, off since June, OK off bench, 25f works since Jan 16
3 – Smiling Shirlee – SA Dirt 4/2-2-0, 2^nd off a layoff, last was bad, 3 OK works since

4 – Super Game – 3^rd off a layoff, last 3^rd was best of 3-race cycle, better fractions in last, Top Pedigree

 

Race 6 – 1 Mile Turf: 41 Races, 28 won by speed, 12 w2w -PP: Strong inside 3 Bias 

3 – Cinnte Winnte – tie LRSP# in Oct, 16f works since Jan 15, Top Pedigree, Distance 6/2-1-1

1 – Agreetodisagree – 2^nd off a layoff, high win rate rail, 4 works, 16f works between races, upgrade to j F Prat

4 – Badger Kitten – across the board P# improvements, all or nothing at distance 4/2-0-0, small weight break

7 – Sky On Ice – jy: Juan Hernandez gets off 4 to ride 7, coming from GG, but hasn’t run well at SA,

 

Race 7 – 1 Mile: 33 Races, 25 won by speed, 6 w2w -PP: mostly fair, 4-7 with a slight edge

4 – Brickyard Ride – Top EP#s by a wide margin, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, DROP 150-100, 2^nd after a layoff, struggled in last two off the bench

3 – Wilder Than Most – 3^rd off a layoff, 3^rd race was best of last and only 3 race cycle,

5 – Touchdown Brown – 2^nd off a layoff, big blast in LP#s in last, Top LP#s by a big margin, Top Pedigree

1 – Seattle Bold – maybe better than #2, should be close to the pace

 

Race 8 – 6 Furlongs Turf: 28 Races, 50/50, 6 w2w -PP: Rail and 8+, 2-7 fair

5 – Rocky Gibraltar – missed as 3/5 Favorite with TLRSP#, decent work since, just needs a better start

8 – Oubabe – has some EP, getting 1^st time Lasix, 24f works since Jan 16, just missed in other race w/ Jy F Prat

9 – Orth – 2^nd off layoff, major in race improvement in 3yo debut, solid work since, top EP#s by a decent margin, improved in each race

1- Bag’s Gold – taking a swing on one of the 1^st time starters here, 18% rail, looking at that Jan 9^th 4f work of 47.3 and Oct 24^th 3f 36.1, those numbers are on par with any race any other horse ran or faced