Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Fair Grounds Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Picks: LA Downs
Fair Grounds Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Grand Priority – Finished in the money six out of eight times at The Fairgrounds, winning one of the races – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 25% of the races when Sprint-Sprint-Route.
9 – Mista Valentine – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race at The Fairgrounds – Improve his speed rating in the last three races in a row.
10 – Musada – Has the highest last race speed rating, highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a good 4F workout on 19Feb FG 4f ft :48ª B 10/85.
1 – We Need a Five – Rail post is winning at a 19% clip – Drops in class today.
Alternate:
7 – Sneaky Allie Kat
8 – Daves Friend Dewey
Race 2
5 – Galaxy Thirtysix – Won two races in a row at The Fairgrounds and she has finished in the money in both races at today’s distance, winning one of the contests.
1 – Strong Beauty – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race and finished in the money in the last six races, winning two races – Drops in class today – Has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout (Feb-18).
2 – Snowball – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race – Likes the track and distance and earned the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today.
4 – Fame Feather – Has not raced since last July – Has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races after a 90+ days break – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a good 4F workout (Feb-17).
Alternate:
7 – Southern Liaison
6 – Condesa’s Handmaid
Race 3
5 – Chairman Moo – Ran second in his last race at today’s distance receiving the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 24% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and a good 4F workout 17Feb FG 4f ft :48.2 B 7/36.
7 – Perfect Perigee – Won his last race at The Fairgrounds and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Pure Valor – Tried turf last race and did not perform well and now is back to dirt which he seems to like better – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
3 – Flying Curlin – Should improve while returning to dirt – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 28% of the races when dropping down 2+ classes – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a good 4F workout (Feb-17).
Alternate:
1 – Our Sexy A. P.
2 – Plemmonston
Race 4
7 – Bee Right –No horse has either ran or performed well on the turf – This the one to at least show it might do well on the turf while returning to the turf – The trainer wins 21% of the Maiden Claiming races he enters a horse in.
5 – Spooky Road – Ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race – Drops in class today – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters – She has a high % winning trainer, and the trainer wins 26% of the races when going from maiden to maiden claiming.
1 – Allocate – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race – The trainer wins 35% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix.
3 – Classy Miss – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Drops in class today – Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner – The trainer wins 17% of the races in 1st route race.
Alternate:
8 – Most Empressive
6 – American Hunter
Race 5
3 – Creole Charlie – Won three out of the last five races, finishing 3rd in last race- Finished in the money eight out of eight races at The Fairgrounds, winning three of the races.
6 – Schnell – Won two races in a row at the Fairgrounds going for a hat trick – The trainer wins 27% of the races when bringing a Winner of its last race back to compete again – Good 4F workout on 20Feb FG 4f ft :48.3 B 7/83.
4 – Release the Beast – Finished in the money ten out of thirteen times at The Fairgrounds, winning four of the races – Ran 2nd in last race at The Fairgrounds – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 5-1-1).
5 – Hooray Austin – A closer that ran second in his last race at 5-1/2 furlongs and stretches out to 6-furlongs which will help – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (6 3-0-0) – Good 4F workout on 20Feb FG 4f ft :48.3 B 7/83.
Alternate:
7 – Secret Vista
1 – Zion
Race 6
9 – Cause to Cruise – Just missed in his last turf race running 2nd after having trouble during the race – Highest last race speed rating (tie) – High % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when bringing back a Beaten favorite to race.
8 – Stitched – Won his only turf race at 7-1/2 furlongs and stretches out to a mile.
2 – Practice Squad – Closed to win his only turf race at The Fairgrounds – Drops in class today – Trainer in the last 7 days has this record (14 6-2-2).
7 – Monarch Man – Run a turf race and received the best turf speed among today’s starters – Drops in class today.
Alternate:
5 – First Glimpse
10 – Marquee Ride
Race 7
2 – Crump – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race at today’s distance – The trainer wins 26% of the races when bringing back a Beaten favorite to race – Good 4F workout on 19Feb FG 4f ft :48.1 B 6/85.
3 – Hombrazo – Won his last race at The Fairgrounds – Never finished out of the money at The Fairgrounds.
5 – Speight’spercomete – Came in from Dubai and won his first race at The Fairgrounds at 6-furlongs and stretches out to 1-1/16 miles – He has a High % winning trainer and Jockey and a Sharp 4F workout on 21Feb FG 4f ft :47.4 B 3/63.
7 – Highland Creek – Won his last race at The Fairgrounds, received the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Good 4F workout on 18Feb FG 4f ft :48.2 B 9/47.
Alternate:
1 – Koolhaus
4 – Hornswoggle
Race 8
5 – Roman Poet – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
3 – Burninhunkoflove – Won his debut race at The Fairgrounds and heavily bet in – Sharp 4F workout (Feb-20)
7 – Prayforpeace – Won last race at The Fairgrounds on the turf and has the highest last race speed rating – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (14 6-2-2).
6 – Pure Panic – Has won two of six races on the turf – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the races when going Route to a Sprint – Lasix added
Alternate:
1 – Freelancer
8 – Alebrije
Race 9
4 – Club Soda – Won three out of the last five races, finishing 1st in last race at The Fairgrounds – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 26% of the races in 1st after a claim – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Chapel Barn – Ran 2nd in last race – Rail post is winning at 23% clip.
2 – Deano– Finished 3rd in last race – Likes The Fairgrounds and distance.
7 – Jack the Ripper – May improve in 4th start since layoff – Early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
9 – Richiesgotswagger
6 – Big Falcon Rocket
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile, 40 Races, 28 won by speed, 18 w2w – PP: Absolute inside out bias
5 – GRAND PRIORITY – BTN FAV, tr Bret Calhoun rebounds 59/227, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, nice LP improvement in last
1 – WE NEED A FIVE – not a top of E types in here, inside speed 2ns best EP#s, 1 of 2 dropping 21-17
10 – MUSADA – if not for the outside post, might be top pick, could take lead without going too fast, Top EP#s, 4SP# increases
9 – MISTA VALENTINE – good form last two, won last by 3 3/4 w/ LP improvement against slower than average pace
Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 6 Races, 50/50, 2 w2w, -PP: zero rail, 4-7>8+>2/3
6 – CONDESA’S HANDMAID – going to take a chance here, could get an EZ lead, 2 Fastest Opening ¼ Fractions, DROP 100K-49, TOP EP#s
2 – SNOWBALL – just missed at 125K last out, LRSP>PAR, 2nd off a layoff
1 – STRONG BEAUTY – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, usually runs well fresh, 17f of OK works since Dec 30
5 – GALAXY THIRTYSIX – winner 2 in a row, showed regression across the board in last, maybe peaked two races back?
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 179 Races, 129 won by speed, 70 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ penalty
7 – PERFECT PERIGEE – head from 2 Ws in a row, weight break, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – PURE VALOR – top EP#s by a wide margin, big time 2f improvement in last, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
5 – CHAIRMAN MOO – TPLRSP#, could struggle to win w/o lead, 2nd off bench & 2nd after claim 9/37 tr Joseph Foster
3 – FLYING CURLIN – 3rd after a layoff, no other 3 race cycle, Top Pedigree, but 10/1-0-1 line
Race 4 – 1 Mile Turf, 10 Races, 70 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: 1-7 fair, 8+ little penalty
5 – SPOOKY ROAD – Top EP#s, Tom Carley Drop MSW 46-MCL 50, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, aggressive rider DeShawn Parker
1 – ALLOCATE – 2/4f improvement in last, 3rd off the bench, TOP EP/LP combo by a little, TOP LP# by a decent margin
3 – CLASSY MISS – TLRSP#, TC DROP MSW 46-MCL 50, 2/4f improvement in last, 3rd off bench
8 – MOST EMPRESSIVE – showed speed in mud, can translate to Turf, TOP PEDIGREE, biggest TC DROP MSW 84-MCL , track drop? Oaklawn to FG
7 – BEE RIGHT – well bet in last few, tends to break slow, tough call over 1st time starter FRENCH CURLINE
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 179 Races, 129 won by speed, 70 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ penalty
3 – CREOLE CHARLIE – Top EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, BTN FAV, could get comfortable lead here, clean break should equal pacesetter
4 – RELEASE THE BEAST – 1st off a claim, Tr Chris Hartman 33/164, Top LP#s by a big margin
6 – SCHNELL – winner 2 in a row, 3 of 4, 2nd of the bench, resume says expect more today, should be close to the front all the way around the track, 1 good work since last
7 – SECRET VISTA – won last by 4, TLRSP#, LRSP>PAR, strong LP Improvement,
Race 6 – 1 Mile Turf, 10 Races, 70 won by speed, 1 w2s -PP: 1-7 fair, 8+ little penalty
9 – CAUSE TO CRUISE – Top LP#s by a lot, LRSP>PAR, BTN FAV, Tr Brad Cox rebounds 167/507, very strong 2/f improvement in last
2 – PRACTICE SQUAD – won only turf run with ease, 1st since Dec 31, 2 good works getting ready, Top EP#s, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
7 – MONARCH MAN – toss out first and last and look at lone turf race in the middle, horse doesn’t like dirt, likes turf, DROP 46-25
8 – STITCHED – just like #7, dirt races bad, turf in the middle good, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, improved 3SP# Increases, tough call over #5 FIRST GLIMPSE
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles, 48 races, 31 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7>8+
7 – HIGHLAND CREEK – TOP EP and LP #s, LRSP>PAR, resume says could be better in 2nd off bench, distance 3/2-1-0
3 – HOMBRAZO – won last by 7 lengths with strong 2/4f pace improvements,
1 – KOOLHAUS – should be better 2nd off layoff, 3 really good works since last start, Top Pedigree, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
2 – CRUMP – tough call not to put higher and to put above #5, maybe better second after layoff, BTN FAV, Tr; Brendan Walsh 29/110 next out
Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 6 Races, 50/50, 2 w2w, -PP: zero rail, 4-7>8+>2/3
7 – PRAYFORPEACE – a lot of early speed here, should set up nicely, tie Top Pedigree, TPLRSP#, 4 SP# Increases
5 – ROMAN POET – 3rd off a layoff – 33/137 tr: Thomas Amoss – who is usually good at turf sprints, 3 works since last, TOP EP#s by a little, usually gets a clean break,
1A – HOLIDAY HOUSE – closer dependent on fast pace, likely to get that here, lone win cam with J Adam Beschizza
6 – PURE PANIC – kind of hard to overlook 200-47 drop, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 1st Lasix, 2nd off a layoff, tough call over #3 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 179 Races, 129 won by speed, 70 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+ penalty
4 – CLUB SODA – FG 9/3-5-0, Distance 19/5-7-0, better fractions in last, LRSP>PAR, Top EP#s by a little and tends to break well
1 – CHAPEL BARN – 1st off the claim Tr. A Farrior, 51/202, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, high hit rate rail
9 – RICHIESGOTSWAGGER – it’s in the name, love Robert Diodoro off the 1st claim, one of two making small DROP 27-22, Tr RD 40/115 drop off the claim
7 – JACK THE RIPPER – 3SP# Increases, gets top jock Brian Hernadez, Jr,
