Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Head-to-Head with Craig Braddick
A great card today and with many cancelations at other tracks, so it is a great time to play at Turf Paradise! Today we welcome Terry & Rich from https://t.co/ZwcFfOhnR6 as our guest handicappers! All todays races are on @TVG and @SkySportsRacing! pic.twitter.com/kYulvqQ8hN
— Turf Paradise (@turf_paradise) February 7, 2022
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Ellie the Nurse – Won last race at Turf Paradise and earned the highest last race speed rating.
3 – After the Candy – Ran a disappointing race in his last outing but was way out of his class -Drops in class today –Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey Harry Hernandez in the last 7 days has this record (29 8-5-2)
1 – Last Renegade – Comes in from Southern California to try his luck at Turf Paradise and drops in class today – Should improve while returning to dirt.
4 – Profound One
Race 2
5 – Shadyfied – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – May improve while returning to dirt – Hot Trainer/ Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 5-0-1).
3- Spinning Red – Finished 3rd at Sunland Park at today’s distance.
7 – Blame the Devil – Showed some early speed last race – Can improve while returning to Dirt -Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – The Black Strat
Alternate:
1 – Bel Ragazzo
Race 3
7 – Eight Makar – Came in from Southern California and ran 2nd in his last race at Turf Paradise – Has the highest last race speed rating – Blinkers added today.
4 – Zero Down – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 33% when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race.
6 – Gone Somewhere – Finished 3rd in last race at Turf Paradise. High % winning trainer Dan Morgan is winning at a 18% clip.
3 – Coastal King – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 25% trainer when dropping Down 2+ classes -Should improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
8 – Roadside
Race#4
6 – Warfront Fighter – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – She has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Should improve at the shorter distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Winning Magic – Ran 3rd vs tougher in last race at Turf Paradise in last race and drops in class today.
2 – Path to Paradise – Comes in from Golden Gate Fields to try Turf Paradise for the first time. Has a decent workout on 27Jan at Tup 4f ft :48.4 H 10/20.
9 – Ez Ruler
Alternate:
7 – Smokin Arrow
Race 5
3 – Wedding Chapel– Comes in from Southern California after showing early speed in all three of her career races – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added
8 – Maclean’s Bella – Comes in from Tampa Bay Downs after running 4th after trouble of the start of the race to try Turf Paradise – May improve with Blinkers added today – Jockey Harry Hernandez in the last 7 days has this record (29 8-5-2)
7 – Curlin Blessing– First time starter- Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters – Average workouts prior to today’s race.
9 – Smiling Salsa
Alternate:
6 – Wumpmug
Race 6
8 – Charming Vintage – In from Golden Gate Fields where he finished 50% of the time in the money last year – Switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races 1st race after a claim.
7 – Quinto Sol – Tries Turf Paradise after coming in from Tampa Bay Downs, drops in class today and switches to a high % jockey – Returns to dirt after running on turf in the last ten races – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-2)
6 – Back Alley Cat – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in last race – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
9 – Mancuso At the Mic
Alternate:
2 – Balius
Race 7
1 – Shinny – Has won nine out of the last ten races – Returns to the dirt from the turf but he performs well on both surfaces – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-3-0).
2 – Missed the Boat – Has won two out of the last four races at Turf Paradise and likes the track and distance.
4 – Family Biz – Highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1) – Bullet 4F workout on 30Jan at Tup 4f ft :47.2 H 1/6.
3 – Blue Azul
Race 8
6 – Express Permission – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Second best Power Prime Number:110.6.
4 – By Moonlight – In from Golden Gate Fields to try Turf Paradise – Has a High %winning trainer – Should improve while returning to a sprint and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Colavito – Beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in last start – Jockey Harry Hernandez in the last 7 days has this record (29 8-5-2).
5 – Shark Harbor -Has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today – The trainer wins 24% when dropping down 2+ classes.
Alternate:
10 – Tiger’s Song
7 – Include Hoo
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs: 83 Races, 66 won by speed, 31 w2w -PP: 1-7 fair – 8+ dropsTop 3 Early Pace #s 2-4-3 Top 3 Late Pace #s 1-5-6
5 – Ellie the Nurse – 3 SP# Increases, won last w/ TPLRSP#, much better fractions, Top EP/LP#s
2 – Tengo Sed – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, much better fractions in his last, slight top EP#
4 – Profound One – 3rd after a layoff, decent work between races, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
1 – Last Renegade – 2nd off bench, track drop from Santa Anita, but TP works are a concern
Race 2 – 1 Mile: 88 Races, 56 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: outside to inside bias
Top 3 Early Pace #s 4-7-5 Top 3 Late Pace #s 2-1-6
2 – Thirsty Kiss – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, two 1-mile races, 2 seconds, better fractions last out
5 – Shadyfied – 20 off or less w STP, ran Jan 24, much better fractions in last
7 – Blame the Devil – improved sharply last turf to dirt, Top Pedigree, moving up position ladder
6 – D Von Tae – 2nd best debut speed #, could improve in R2, decently bet 8-1, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 69 Races, 49 won by speed, 27 w2w -PP: play fair
Top 3 Early Pace #s 4-8-6 Top 3 Late Pace #s 2-7-4
4 – Zero Down – top combo EP/LP #s, 2nd start w/ T: J Evans – 28%, 33% BTN FAV, Tie Top Pedigree, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, good work since last
7 – Eight Makar – could improve in 2nd off bench, better fractions in last, Quick TA Jan 23rd. 5 SP# Increases
6 – Gone Somewhere – walking up position ladder, usually well bet
8 – Roadside – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, moving up position ladder too
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs: 46 Races, 40 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: rail slight negative, rest fair
Top 3 Early Pace #s 4-2-6 Top 3 Late Pace #s 1-4 tie 5-3
6 – Warfront Fighter – sneaky better fractions 5.5-6.5 Furlongs, same #s, better 2/4F#s, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, BTN FAV
4 – Winning Magic – top EP/LP #s, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, always well bet, ITM 5(0-1-2) @ TP Denzel
9 – Ez Ruler – down 2 classes 4/13, resume says better in R2 off bench, 3SP#s Increases, tough call w/ #2
2 – Path to Paradise – 1st start w/ trainer 10/27 winners, 3SP# Increases, decent works
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs: 46 Races, 40 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: rail slight negative, rest fair
Top 3 Early Pace #s 3-9-4 Top 3 Late Pace #s 2-8-5
9 – Smiling Salsa – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, solid work since last out, 2nd start after a layoff
3 – Wedding Chapel – 1st Lasix w/top EP#s, strong works getting ready, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, BTN FAV, only DROP 33-23.8
8 – Macleans Bella – tough call with CURLIN BLESSING, BTN FAV – taking because of J H Hernandez
7 – Curlin Blessing – Top Pedigree, 1st time starter
Race 6 – 1 Mile: 88 Races, 56 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: outside to inside bias
Top 3 Early Pace #s 9-4-5 Top 3 Late Pace #s 1-2-7
6 – Back Alley Cat – Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, better fractions in last, ITM 5/11 fast dirt
9 – Mancuso At the Mic – improved 2f/4f #s last out, 2nd for Tr Charles Essex of claim, w 3/9, Top EP#s
8 – Charming Vintage – 1st off the claim, Tr J Wong 29%, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions,
7 – Quinto Sol – track drop from Tampa? 3rd Start after a layoff, 1st Start tr: Tim Rycoff 21% winner
Race 7 – 1 Mile: 88 Races, 56 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: outside to inside bias
Top 3 Early Pace #s 8-6-7 Top 3 Late Pace #s 5-1-7
1 – Shinny – 10 HQ races in 10 starts, 4(3-1-0) @ TP, 5/5 @ Distance, 7/11 on fast dirt, BTN FAV, 27% rebound for R Diodoro, 9 wins in last 10 races
2 – Missed the Boat – improved 1 mile F by 1 sec, TP 4(2-1-0) and 13(5-2-2) @ Dist, no worse than 4th w/ J Alex Cruz
3 – Blue Azul – LRSP>PAR, sneaky fraction improvement on T compared to D, his Top 2f/4f #s in last 10
5 – Loose Diamond – 3 SP# Increases, top LP#s, ITM 6/11 on fast track, good work after last race
Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 69 Races, 49 won by speed, 27 w2w -PP: play fair
Top 3 Early Pace #s 6-5 tie 3-8 Top 3 Late Pace #s 4-2-5
6 – Express Permission – Top EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 7 HQ starts in 10, better fractions
5 – Shark Harbor – TPLRSP#, small drop, 4 SP# Increases, QTA Jan 26, Tr: Joe Toye w 9/37 down two classes
4 – By Moonlight – consistently top SP#s, tr J Wong 19% with shippers, from GG, usually well bet
8 – Colavito – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3 SP# Increases, top j: H Hernandez
