Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Roadside – Broke bad and came into the stretch five wide which compromised his chances. He only lost by a nose two races back at today’s distance and is dropping in class today. He can win if he repeats the performance on January 7th.
3 – Winning Magic – Shows early speed – Cutting back in distance may help – Has a good jockey and trainer.
5 – Warfront Fighter – He ran a nice second last race at Turf Paradise and has had a bullet workout on January 7th
7 – Rancher – Trying dirt for the first time in his career and shortening up today. Really like the bullet workout January 5th
Race 2
7 – Trapalis – The last time he tried the turf at Turf Paradise he ran 2nd and has the best last turf speed rating in the race. He has jockey Lindey Wade in the irons and trainer Vann Belvoir.
3 – Shadyfied – He has started in two races on the turf was bumped badly in one of those races and lost all chance but ran a nice third in the other. In addition, he has a 3-furlong bullet workout on Dec. 4th.
4 – Stormy Summit – He has a good jockey who is winning at a 19% clip at the current meet. He had big improvement in his speed rating in his last race and seems to be racing into form.
2 – Next Journey – First time starter with decent works and a trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has finished in the money seven out of eight races.
Race 3
1 – Linemans Check – Likes the distance finishing five out of six races, winning two – Bullet work on 13Jan Tup 5f ft :58.4 H 1/23
7 – Ten Carat Rock – Finished in the money in 46% of the races during his career, winning 27% of the races. He stretches out which will help his case as he has won at this distance.
9 – Wild Wild Kingdom– Ran nice 3rd last race
6 – Angelino– Highest last race speed rating.
Race 4
2 – Flying Charlie – Finished 2nd two races in a row and has a Jockey who in the last 7 days has finished in the money 18 out of 26 starts, winning 7.
6 – Misawa – Come in from southern California after just missing in his last race Finishing 2nd losing by only a nose. The trainer wins 31% of the races when bringing a Beaten favorite.
1 – Bid in the Back – Closed to finished 3rd and has a good jockey Joree Scriver in the irons.
5 – Chief Governor – Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters – Breeding suits today’s sprint distance – Ok workouts. Has a good jockey.
Race 5
8 – Ropers N Wranglers – Ran on the turf in her last race and liked it only losing by a neck. She had the highest last race speed rating while doing that.
5 – Twelve Stars – Had some trouble in her last race but still ran 2nd in her debut race. She has a good jockey who has won 7 out of the last 28 starts.
6 – Balas – Was very green her first start and showed a lot of improvement in her last race. She has a good workout on 07Jan Tup 4f ft :47.3 H 8/35
2 – Keba Lucky Day – Ran 4th after coming into the stretch 4-wide – Had a good workout on 12Jan Tup 5f ft 1:01.2 H 6/17.
Race 6
8 – Try to Capture – Won his last race easily and a good Trainer/Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-2-0).
6 – Majestic Street – Like to lead to win a race. He has a good a jockey and trainer and drops in class.
2 – March On Linch – He ran second in his last race despite coming into the stretch 6-wide and drops in class for today’s contest.
3 – Speeding Style– Won last race (GG
Race 7
1 – Express Permission– Won last race at Turf Paradise – Has the highest last race speed rating and has a good workout on 01Nov’21 Tup 5f ft :59.3 H 4/13.
5 – Rousing Rubble – Finished in the money in the last three races, winning one of the races and switches to jockey Lindey Wade who is winning at 22% clip at this meet.
2 – Colavito – Ran 3rd last race, has a good jockey and a good workout on 09Dec’21 Tup 4f ft :46.4 H 2/26
7 – Fabulous Floyd – Finished in the money 50% of the time in 2021, winning two of the races, but has not raced for more than 6 months.
Race 8
8 – Red Nova – Has won two races in a row at today’s distance on the turf – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a Jockey who in the last 7 days has won four out of twelve races.
7 – Starlight Twist – Won her last race after being off for seven months and now is trying turf for the first time.
4 – Thechampisfloring – Has won two out of her last four races, has a good workout and has a good jockey who is winning at a 23% clip at this meet.
3 – North of Eden – Finished second in the last three races only losing by a neck, has a good workout and now stretches out to a mile which will help.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 52 Races, 37 won by speed, 20 w2w – PP: Plays Fair
5 – Warfront Fighter – much better fractions, bullet work since, LRSP>PAR
3 – Winning Magic – Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, Jr. H Hernandez #1 ITM Sprints, #2 wins, #1 EP#s
4 – Roadside – Top Pedigree, Drop 23.8-13.3, has 2nd best EP#s,
7 – Rancher – hard to look past 46.2 4f work – faster than any in race number, tough call versus CIRCLE WEST
Race 2 – 1 Mile Turf: 9 Races, 7 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: Big inside 3 Bias
7 – Trapalis – J; L Wade wins 35.5% routes, tr: Van Belvoir 26% turf ITM 69.6%, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
2 – Next Journey – Tr: J Wong 31.6 % winner turf, 73.7% ITM – +ROI w/ Jy: H Hernandez
1 – Pretty Loud – top combo EP/LP, Fav last out, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – Stormy Summit – LRSP>PAR on dirt, Tr: Clay Brinson 5/20 Dirt to Turf – 3 SP# increases, bounce?
Race 3 – 1 Mile: 71 Races, 48 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Outside to inside bias
7 – Ten Carat Rock – has some TP back class, ran a slightly better race last time out
6 – Angelino – always decently bet, 20 off or less w STP, only horse dropping 14-11.5
10 – Demerara – has early pace, fist off a claim 22% angle trainer ML Pierce
1 – Linemans Check – 3rd off a layoff, ITM 5/6 at the distance, bullet on Jan 13
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs: 70 races, 56 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: 4-7 win the most, big drop 8+ 1-3 even
6 – Misawa – EP# edge, tie Top Pedigree, track drop, 2/5 favorite last, Tr: Jeffrey Metz 31% w/ Btn Favs
2 – Flying Charlie – 3rd off a layoff, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, 10% win/50% ITM, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
5 – Chief Governor – looks like the better of the two first time starters
1 – Bid in the Back – 3rd off the bench, late pace imp in last, maintenance work since last race
Race 5 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf: 6 races, 5 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 Ok
8 – Ropers N Wranglers – LRSP>PAR, 3SP # increases, big jump on grass, concerned about bounce
5 – Twelve Stars – well bet in debut, LRSP>PAR, top combo EP/LP, question is dirt to turf
9 – Keep It Rollin – 4 SP# Increases, 3rd off a layoff, upgrade to L Wade,
2 – Keba Lucky Day – Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, Top Pedigree, 12 F works since last
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs: 70 races, 56 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: 4-7 win the most, big drop 8+ 1-3 even
6 – Majestic Street – 1st time claiming Tr; Justin Evans 37% win, Beat TRY TO CAPTURE 2 back
8 – Try to Capture – 20 off or less w STP, won last by 6 3/4, TPLRSP Robertino 29% sprints
9 – Herzen – bullet work on 1-19, 35.1 3 furlongs, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3rd off best last 3
2 – March On Linch – 3rd off a layoff, improved from 1 to 2, a pair of works since last
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs: 70 races, 56 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: 4-7 win the most, big drop 8+ 1-3 even
1 – Express Permission – 20 off or less w STP, 2nd by nk last quick TA, won EZ at this level last out, 3SP UP
5 – Rousing Rubble – better fractions last out, tied for top EP#s, upgrade to L Wade, ITM 4-7 @ TP
7 – Fabulous Floyd – tie for top EP/LP combo, long break?
2 – Colavito – improved fractions last out despite adding a furlong, 3rd off, Jk: H. Hernandez top sprint
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf: 9 Races, 7 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: Big inside 3 Bias
8 – Red Nova – top EP#s and best EP/LP Combo, 3 SP Increases, winner 3/4 – same fractions 1 m vs 6f
3 – North of Eden – ¾ & neck from winning 2 in a row, 3 SP Increases
4 – Thechampisfloring – 1st off the claim, 30% Tr; J Wong, top EP/LP combo
5 – Happy Happy Happy – bullet work, 6 on Turf @ TP – 4 seconds, only with small drop
