Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Where’s Frankie – Came in from Golden Gate Fields and won her first race at Turf Paradise – She has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – She has the highest last race speed rating, and the trainer wins 27% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back to run again.
6 – Carrie’s Success – Has won three of the last four races including the last one at Turf Paradise at today’s distance.
5 – Bully Baby – Won two races out of the last three races running 2nd vs similar in last race.
4 – Sweet Honor – Won two races in a row going for a hat trick – She has won seven out of twenty-five career races.
Alternate:
2 – Dozo
1 – Kid Cat
Race 2
4 – Upper Room – Ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and won the race before. – Has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Wicked Fortitude – Finished 3rd in the last two races and now returns to the distance that he is perfect winning two races in two starts.
6 – Golden Tiger – Can improve at the shorter distance and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
3 – Mad Luther
7 – Tiz Manny
Race 3
5 – Great Ulysses – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-1).
6 – Blow My Mind – Ran 4th in the last race after coming wide into the stretch – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-2) – The trainer is perfect in this meet, winning two out of two races.
7 – Snazzy Dresser – Ran a disappointing race last time out after being bumped and now drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Lover Boy Bob
3 – Goldeneyed
Race 4
7 – Bear Brian – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race improving his speed rating in the third race in a row – He has a high % winning Jockey and likes the distance.
5 – Warfront Fighter – Won his last race at Turf Paradise – Has the highest last race speed rating (tie), highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Reddish – Ran 2nd in the last two races losing by only a neck finishing 2nd vs similar in last race and earning the highest last race speed rating (tie).
2 – Mr. Artistic – Likes the track and distance.
Alternate:
1 – Mancuso At the Mic
3 – Thoughts of Gold
Race 5
4 – Chest Candy – Finished 2nd on the turf in his last race – The Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0) – He has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Thegloryisallmine – Loves the track and distance winning three out of four races at today’s distance – Switches to a high % winning trainer – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0) – Has a good 4F workout on 04Mar Tup 4f ft :47.4 H 4/57.
8 – Yha Yha – Finished in the money in the last three races winning the last one at Turf Paradise.
2 – Hard to Deny – Finished 3rd (on Dirt) in last race – Trying turf for the second time.
Alternate:
9 – No Supah for You
5 – House Limit
Race 6
2 – Godgunsncountry – Has the highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Blinkers are added today.
has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and drops in class today.
7 – Mr Bug Z – Has been racing at Santa Anita comes into Turf Paradise and switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey – Drops in class today – Returning to a sprint should help – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-2) – He has a good 4F workout on 08Mar Tup 4f ft :48 H 6/21.
5 – Creative One– Comes in from Golden Gate Fields after running 3rd to try Turf Paradise.
8 – Shadyfied – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 37% of the time when he enters a horse in a Maiden Claiming race – The trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-0-1)
Alternate:
6 – Unusual Account
3 – Kearney
Race 7
5 – Son of Smalls- Ran 2nd in his last two races – Switches to a high % winning trainer – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 29% of the time in the 1st race after a claim.
7 – Jungle Roar – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 38% of the time when dropping an entry Down 2+ classes – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – The trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-0-1).
1 – Winning Magic – Finished 3rd closing at 4-1/2 furlongs in his last race and now stretches out to 6-1/2 furlongs which will help – Switches to a high % winning jockey Harry Hernandez.
6 – Truth to Power – Drops in class today – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Path to Paradise
8 – Brunate
Race 8
9 – Happy Happy Happy – In the last three races she ran 3rd then 2nd and then won her last race – She has a high % trainer – Drops in class today – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
6 – A Dime for Me – Knocking at the door running 2nd the last three races in a row – She has a high % trainer – Switches to a high % winning jockey – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 5F workout on (Mar-07).
10 – Keepinmypromise- Finished in the money in her last four races, winning one of the contests.
5 – Just Grace – won two out of last three races running 2nd in her last race a turf race affair – She has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
1 – Noumea
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs – 122 Races, 93 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
Four of the six horse in this group want to be forwardly placed, but only two are lead or bust types. Stalkers probably have the best chance here.
6 – CARRIE’S SUCCESS – can sit behind the leaders and has by far the best LP#s, 1st of the claim
3 – WHERE’S FRANKIE – won her first start at TP with her career best SP#, LRSP>PAR and her fourth increase in a row – touch concerned about a bounce
5 – BULLY BABY – has a sizeable 2/4f pace edge, tailed off ugly late in her last, sluggish work since, maybe peaked three races back?, dropping 27.3-18.9
2 – DOZO – moves from R Diodoro to Estaban Martinez, missed as the chalk in her last, one of two dropping 27.3-18.9
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – 122 Races, 93 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
There is a good mix of running styles in this group, expecting an average pace which should benefit horses closer to the front.
6 – GOLDEN TIGER – jockey change to Karlo Lopez, 3# in sprint wins, TOP EP#s by a little
4 – UPPER ROOM – biggest beneficiary if the pace does go hot, beaten a few in here already
7 – TIZ MANNY – always seems to have issues at the start, if he breaks cleanly, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
1 – GEORGIAN ROAD
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 92 Races, 66 won by speed, 33 w2w – PP: all fair
There isn’t a true frontrunner in this group, just a bunch of pressers with a few closers. Whichever gets the lead could discourage all the other pressers with closers coming in late.
7 – SNAZZY DRESSER – has the best EP/LP combo by a decent margin, with a strong LP edge, Biggest DROP 27.3-15.9
5 – GREAT ULYSSES – should be better in 3rd start off the bench, one of the 2 closers and ran better fractions last out
2 – OUTLAW – has the best EP#s by a little and could be the discourager, 3rd after a layoff with Top Pedigree, the only other dropper 23.8-15.9
6 – BLOW MY MIND –
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs – 122 Races, 93 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
There is some cheap, early speed in here, which could open the path for stalkers and maybe the lone closer.
5 – WARFRONT FIGHTER tied for the TLRSP#, much improved LP# last out and only E/P in the field, can win from front and off the pace
6 – REDDISH – also tied for the TLRSP#, better fractions, longer race (6 vs 5.5f), 20 off or less w STP, top EP/LP combo
7 – BEAR BRIAN – is the closer in the field but also has Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 3SP# Increases, 3rd after a layoff
3 – THOUGHTS OF GOLD – has the best EP#s in a big way, if he can get off to an easy lead, look out
Race 5 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 33 Races, 21 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2-7 the same, 8+ big penalty
There is plenty of potential giddy up and go in here. Look for the speed with late legs and stalkers/closers to make thing interesting late.
7 – AX MAN – the speed of the speed and running at his lowest level in a long, long time, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
2 – HARD TO DENY – could be co-pilot, but has the 2nd best LP#s in the field, Top Pedigree
6 – THEGLORYISALLMINE – coming in from Terry’s favorite track GG, strong at TP 6/3-2-0, distance 4/3-1-0
4 – CHEST CANDY – jockey switch to H Hernandez, should be rolling late
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 92 Races, 66 won by speed, 33 w2w – PP: all fair
A group of inexperienced horses with only a few that showed early speed. Most had issues getting out of the gate, whoever gets the early lead my might not give it up.
6 – UNUSUAL ACCOUNT – small drop in class, was well bet in debut, hesitated at the start, expect a cleaner start today
2 – GODGUNSNCOUNTRY – running at lowest level, 4/0-3-1 @ MOC 30k, two decent works since last
5 – CREATIVE ONE – coming in from GG with tie TLRSP#, lots of reasons to improve
7 – MR BUG Z – tough call over #4, Santa Anita shipper, Dropping in class, strong works getting ready
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 92 Races, 66 won by speed, 33 w2w – PP: all fair
It’s tough to tell who is going to do what. Many horses have struggled in their starts, and none have consistently gotten out of the gates quicky.
5 – SON OF SMALLS – could be co-pilot according to EP#s but has the best LP#s by a wide margin
6 – TRUTH TO POWER – making second start for trainer Daniel Kenney 4/10, has some back speed and decent LP#s
7 – JUNGLE ROAR – dropping 2 classes, trainer Justin Evans 20/51, ugly start in last, has bounced back before
4 – MY FRIEND JOHNNY – 1st time starter that doesn’t have to beat too much in here, dam has 2 stakes winners, winners in 6 of 7 offspring
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf – 45 Races, 30 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Substantial inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
Some cheap early speed in here, but the odds of at least one factoring to the end is probably high as 8 of the 11 starters are stalker/closers with most preferring the back half of the line early on.
6 – A DIME FOR ME – jockey upgrades, going sprint to route, last time 1 mile TP Turf, 2nd by a nose
9 – HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY – Turf Denzel – 7/0-4-1 , nice 2/4f improvement in last
5 – JUST GRACE – TLRSP#, LRSP>PAR, QTA ran Feb 28, 4SP# increases
10 – KEEPINMYPROMISE – Top EP by a decent Margin, 1st off the claim, won in J Leslie Mawing’s only rise 2 back
