Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Sunland Park
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Et’s Toy Soldier – Finished 3rd in his only start – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
6 – Kisses for Val – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and has finished in the money in the last six out of seven races at PARX, winning one of the races. – Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – Drops in class today and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 9-3-1)
3 – Porsupuesto – Finished 2nd in his last race and has a decent workout on 15Feb Parx 4f ft :50 B 3/6.
5 – One Niner Tango –Drops in class today – The trainer wins 20% of the time in 2nd start with a turn – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Late to the Show
Race 2
3 – Hey It’s Tati – The trainer wins 27% of the time when shipping an entry in – May improve while returning to a sprint – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Seize the Whiskey – Won the last race she ran at Parx tried Laurel without success and now returns to run again at PARX, likes the track and can handle the distance.
6 – Sharon’s Law – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-3).
1 – Leftatthealtar – Finished 3rd in last race.
Alternate:
5 – Lady Mistress
2 – Miss Alex
Race 3
5 – Noble Commander – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – He has a trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-5-1).
7 – Super Dude – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has a high % winning trainer and Jockey and Super Dude best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Alfatei – Ran 7th in her last race but broke slowly and was fractious – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0) – Good 4F workout on (Mar-08).
1 – Mission Wrapitup – Won his last race at PARX and the rail post is winning at 24% – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
Alternate:
2 – The Sicarii
3 – Jw’strickymischief
Race 4
4 – Get the W – Ran 2nd in his last race only losing by a head earning the highest last race speed rating – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-3).
8 – Big Mountain – Finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race – He has the best dirt speed among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Monteleone – Rail post is winning at 24% clip – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the time when bringing back horse after a 46–90-day break.
5- Tomater Gator – Finished 2nd in his last race – Switches to a high % winning trainer – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Dark Ages
3 – Catch Fire
Race 5
6 – Parable – Came in from Woodbine and promptly won a race earning the highest last race speed rating – High % winning trainer that who wins 26% of the races when bringing back a winner of their maiden race.
2 – Cape Cod Sally – She likes the track and distance finishing in the money in 41% of the time – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-3).
7 – Balboa’s Smile – She has the largest average winnings per race than any of the other horses in the race.
5 – Angelsfour Michele – Has done well in at Parx in the past compared to other runners in this race.
Alternate:
4 – Broad Jumper
1 – Driver’s License
Race 6
5 – Wishes and Dreams – She has won two out of the last four races, running 4th in the last after being bumped at the start – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – She’smyrisenstar – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, the 5th race in a row – Stuck at running 3rd I think she may remedy that in today’s contest.
7 – Penance – Tried a distance in the last two races without success and now goes back to a sprint where she has performed well – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Boca Royalty – She drops in class today and the trainer wins 20% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
Alternate:
6 – Anginetti
1 – Mani Pedi.
Race 7
3 – Celtic Treasure – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Thorny Tale – Rail post is winning at 19% clip – May improve while returning to a route – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-5-1).
2 – El Hermano – Finished 3rd in last race and received the highest last race speed rating (tie).
4 – Charlies Safari – Finished 3rd in last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Alejandro’s Team
Race 8
5 – Cici Unified – She won her debut race at PARX Racing and received the highest last race speed rating – She was well bet in that debut – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-1).
3 – Touring Maryanne – She won her debut race at PARX Racing and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-3).
7 – Advocate Harbor – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race at PARX – Has a high % winning trainer.
9 – Princess Emma Jo – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, winning the race before.
Alternate:
2 – Halligirl.
Race 9
7 – Live Aid – Won last race at PARX Racing very easily and received the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 18% of the time when in sprint races.
1 – Map of America – She won her last race at PARX Racing The trainer wins 33% of the time when he drops a horse off a win.
6 – Spun d’Etat – Switches to a high % winning jockey, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 9-3-1).
5 – Empress Deona – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Her early speed running style helps chances – Should improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
2 – Lil Tater
3 – Bucks Some
Race 10
8 – American Unity -Won two races in a row and traveled to Laurel and ran a disappointing 5th after a slow start – Returns to PARX Racing and drops in class today – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – He has a bullet 4F workout on 08Mar Parx 4f ft :48.2B 1/14.
3 – Irish Honor – Ran 2nd in last race and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-0-1).
2 – Brilliant Chase – Ran 2nd in last race, earned the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-5-1) – 4F workout (Mar-08).
7 – Our Philly Special – his Won last race at Penn National and returns to PARX Racing to win a second race in a row.
Alternate:
6 – Pategory One
5 – Johnny Ritt.
Race 11
4 – Diesel – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating (tie), highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Burn and Turn – Not sure what happened last race without explanation, prior he was very consistent in his finishes, so I just image the distance was not to his liking – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 20% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
5 – Impactful – Another one that ran a disappointing race last race finishing a disappointing 9th so I will ignore that race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-3).
9 – Deckology – Ran 4th losing by only 2-3/4 lengths but received the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Alternate:
1 – The Reign Man
8 – Defibrillator
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 67 Races, 45 won by speed, 18 won by speed – PP: 1 win from the rail, all else fair.
There is only one true frontrunner in here based on the most recent races, there are a handful that like to stalk and a closer. If the lone speed can catch a reasonable pace, it could be tough to catch him.
6 – KISSES FOR VAL – DROPS in class and should be better in 2nd off the bench, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
2 – ET’S TOY SOLDIER – DROPS in class, could improve in his second start. Trainer Gustavo Chacon ITM 6/9 at PARX
5 – ONE NINER TANGO – was off for more than 15-months, probably needed a race, could step forward here
4 – LATE TO THE SHOW – should be towards the font early, but man the last two are awful, maybe switch to jockey Andy Hernandez makes a difference?
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 67 Races, 45 won by speed, 18 won by speed – PP: 1 win from the rail, all else fair
Half the of the eight here want the lead and another two want to pressure the leaders, speed of the speed with late legs or stalkers/closers could be where you’ll find the winner.
3 – HEY IT’S TATI – track drop from AQ, class drop 2 down, trainer Danny Gargan 4/13
2 – MISS ALEX – stumbled at the start of her last, usually breaks clean, just missed, small weight break and should be better in 2nd off the sidelines
7 – SEIZE THE WHISKEY – just needs to run back to her last at Parx, maiden win, top LP# with top j Jamie Rodriguez
5 – LADY MISTRESS – Tie Top Pedigree, first off the claim, not the biggest winner for John Kirby and jockey change
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 26 Races, 16 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Strong rail bias, inside 3, 8>4-7
Five of the seven horses in here want to chase or close. That could pave the wave for one of the two pacesetters to get the checkered flag.
5 – NOBLE COMMANDER – should get out of the gates in a hurry, ride co-pilot for Ruben Sillvera and Jamie Ness combo – ITM 15/6-5-1
1 – MISSION WRAPITUP – rides the 20% winning rail, could be pacesetter, showed much better LP#s in last
2 – THE SICARII – TLRSP & Only DROP 47-20, jockey switch to Dexter Haddock won 3/4 w/ tr Harold Wyner
3 – JW’STRICKYMISCHIEF – probably going to regret putting him ahead of #7, has top EP#s by a wide margin – tr; Guadalupe Guerrero won 8/45 (18%) going route to sprint, just 6% win rate overall
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 26 Races, 16 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Strong rail bias, inside 3, 8>4-7
There is a lack of sustainable speed with a pair of frontrunners. The rest prefer to chase or close. Could set up for horses close to the front as long as they run average fractions for this level, variants of +6 or higher for 2/4 furlongs would likely be too fast.
5 – TOMATER GATOR – is one of the two early speedsters, 1st of the claim for trainer Mario Dominguez, winner of 21/55 (38%) vs 19% overall win rate
8 – BIG MOUNTAIN – chased some hot fractions in his last at Aqueduct, unlikely to see that here off the track drop and third off the bench. The other early speed with a weight break
4 – GET THE W – Top Pedigree and ran LRSP>PAR, two in a row, ran faster fractions in 7f than he did in 6 ½ furlongs the previous outing.
1 – MONTELEONE – get the high win rate rail in his first since Jan 10th. Trainer Ralph Riviezzo w 4/19 (21%) 46-90 days away, just 7% so far at PARX
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 67 Races, 45 won by speed, 18 won by speed – PP: 1 win from the rail, all else fair
Three speed horse, three pressers and two closers in a field that has run bad race after bad race. Most likely a horse near the front gets the win. Got to pick one of them.
2 – CAPE COD SALLY – improved her pace numbers from start to finish with 3SP# increases in a row – likely to be out front, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
6 – PARABLE – ran TLRSP# in 1st after coming from Woodbine, trainer Louis Linder Jr 13/50 following maiden win – top EP/LP combo
7 – BALBOA’S SMILE – broke her maiden vs an above average pace, something she not likely to get here, but is making her third start after a layoff and improved 2/4/LP# in last
3 – DAZZLING SPEED – should be co-pilot and has the 2nd best EP# and 2nd best EP/LP combo
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 67 Races, 45 won by speed, 18 won by speed – PP: 1 win from the rail, all else fair
There is a lack of early speed in here, four of the seven are back of the back types, a couple that like to pressure the leader and one front runner, odds are the winner will be close to the front from gate to wire.
6 – ANGINETTI – could be the pacesetter in a race w/o a lot of speed, BTN FAV, trainer Harlod Wymer 16/82 (20%) vs overall win rate of 11%.
7 – PENANCE – cuts back from a route, last race better than it looks in PPs w/ 2/4f improvement & faster fractions in a little longer race
2 – BOCA ROYALTY – 3rd after a layoff – horse popped big in last 3—race cycle, all or nada 10/4-0-0 at Parx
5 – WISHES AND DREAMS – 2nd off a layoff tr: Juan Guerrero 27/106 (25%) vs 19% win rate, top closer, gets a weight break and doesn’t need a fast pace to close. Distance 10/3-0-4
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 69 Races, 45 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Small inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
Another spot where there isn’t too much early pace, four of the seven prefer to stalk or close. If the three that like to be near the lead don’t burn each other, up front has the edge.
1 – THORNY TALE – has the top EP/LP, Silvera/Ness been hot, PARX 11/6-1-0, Distance 5/3-1-0, high win rate rail
3 – CELTIC TREASURE – tied for the TLRSP# and could be better in 2nd off the bench, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
5 – ALEJANDRO’S TEAM – reclaimed by Ralph Riviezzo, finished 3rd by ¾ last time he claimed, ITM 6/9 @ PARX
2 – EL HERMANO – tied TLRSP#, strong improvement in his last
Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 26 Races, 16 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Strong rail bias, inside 3, 8>4-7
It’s a barbell looking pace with four that have only one from the front in their last 10 and then three closers with two in the middle.
5 – CICI UNIFIED – won her debut easily with the TLRSP#, Tr Carlos Soto 4/3-0-1 last week,
9 – PRINCESS EMMA JO – usually breaks well and should be the pacesetter, some nice LP Improvement in her last
3 – TOURING MARYANNE – 6F time was faster than #5, but the speed number was 9 points lower
6 – CRAZY SERENA – tough call over #7, but when they are both at their best, CRAZY is better
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 67 Races, 45 won by speed, 18 won by speed – PP: 1 win from the rail, all else fair
Lots of giddy up and go here with five of seven that want the lead, speed of the speed with late legs or one of the other two.
3 – BUCKS SOME – could get a perfect trip behind a lot of speed, bullet work on March 4
1 – MAP OF AMERICA – can’t put the 1 at 6f on top, should be better in 2nd off the bench, small weight break
5 – EMPRESS DEONA – usually gets a great break, has some EP. 2nd off the bench, usually better and bullet work on March 2, fastest of 67
6 – SPUN D’ETAT – track drop from AQ, Distance 10/3-0-4, top LP and shouldn’t be too far from the front
Race 10 – 7 Furlongs – 42 Races, 26 won by speed, 10 w2w -PP: mostly fair, 8+ slight penalty
A lot that want to pressure the lead but not necessarily take it. This setup should benefit horses with some late octane.
8 – AMERICAN UNITY – has the top LP#s and should be right off the pace, 1st time G and bullet work on March 8, Parx 2/2-0-0
3 – IRISH HONOR – 4/LP improvement in 2nd after a layoff, worried a touch about 2 hard-fought races in a row
2 – BRILLIANT CHASE – bullet work on March 8th, TLRSP# in last, 2nd off claim for Tr Jamie Ness – J Ruben Silvera
7 – OUR PHILLY SPECIAL – has the top EP#s by a decent margin and might not have much company, bullet work since, yet to win in 11 at Parx
Race 11 – 6 Furlongs, 67 Races, 45 won by speed, 18 won by speed – PP: 1 win from the rail, all else fair
Seven of the 10 in here would rather close, although three of them can stay close to the lead. This should favor horses near the lead.
2 – BURN AND TURN – can’t ignore recent record coming off a break, 2nd by neck, 1st by 14 last 2, Scott Lake told us on HC he likes the route to sprint angle
4 – DIESEL – top EP#s by a little, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 4SP# increases, LRSP>PAR
9 – DECKOLOGY – 2nd off the layoff and 2nd after the claim for trainer Alfredo Velazquez 6/25 (24%) vs no wins at Parx so far, LRSP>PAR
8 – DEFIBRILLATOR – trainer Josue Arce +0.83 ROI in RT to Sprint, won his last sprint
