Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Will Rogers
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
7 – Crazy Good – Finished in the money in four out of five races, winning two. She has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer 29%: wins the race at being Claiming race repeater.
2 – Chicks Dig Munny – I think she is a better dirt horse than a turf horse. She has finished in the money two out of two races both at Turf Paradise and at 6-furlongs, winning one of the races.
8 – Heart River – Won his last race at Turf Paradise – The trainer wins 44% of the time in the 1st race after a claim and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Dodropin – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (21 7-0-1)
Alternate:
5 – Crookhaven
3 – Kid Cat
Race 2
3 – Optimistic Valor – Won two races in a row and going for a hat trick – The trainer wins 50% of the time when he drops a horse off a win – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
4 – Nolongerahobby – He will be closing to try and win the race – He switches to a high % winning jockey – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-1-1).
5 – T Bones Trick – Finished in 4th place after breaking slow but very competitive always in the mix. The trainer wins 19% of the time in the 2nd race after a claim – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-1-1).
6 – Golden Tiger – He likes Turf Paradise and the distance winning two out of five races there in both cases.
Alternate:
6 – N. K. Rocket Man
7 – Dillon Rocks
Race 3
2 – Kiki My Star– Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race after coming 8-wide into the stretch – Drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Dizzy Lizzy – Comes in from Golden Gate Fields after showing early speed for ½ mile in a mile race and now cuts back to 5 furlongs which will benefit her. – She returns to dirt which may help her improve – The trainer wins 19% of the time when running a horse in a Maiden Claiming races.
6 – Dr. Angel – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – drops in class today -The trainer wins 22% of the time when running a horse in a Maiden Claiming races – The shorter distance should help.
4 – Rockin In –Her debut race was disappointing after steading after start and finishing 6th -She has a high % winning trainer and drops in class today.
Alternate:
3 – Awesome Lady
7 – Party Police
Race 4
6 – Warriors Hero – I think he is a better dirt horse than turf as he has finished at Turf Paradise on the dirt at today’s distance in both of his starts, winning one of them.
5 – Back Alley Cat – Plenty of trouble the last two races so I will defer to three races back were won at Turf Paradise – Drops in class today, the best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters The trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-2-0).
4 – Add On – Won two races in a row and then tried tougher horses and ran a disappointing 8th and drops back down in class today – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (21 7-0-1).
2 – Off the Books – Won last race at Turf Paradise and received the highest last race speed rating (tie) The trainer wins 34% of the time in the 1st race after a claim – The trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-1-0).
Alternate:
3 – Rousing Rubble – What happened last race??? – May improve while returning to a route as he has the best speed figure at today’s distance – The trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-0).
1 – Steal Home
Race 5
9 – Maclean’s Bella – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – She has two good workouts in a row; 15Mar Tup 3f ft :35.3 H 3/11 & bullet workout on 20Feb Tup 3f ft :36.4 H 1/5
5 – Wedding Chapel – Came in from Southern California and was not able to show her true colors as she was bumped at the start – She has shown a lot of early speed in her starts and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Eyes for Gold – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start receiving the highest last race speed rating and being well bet in debut.
4 – Curlin Blessing – Finished 4th in her first two races in a row and the trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0) – She has a couple of good works.
Alternate:
1 – Ms Glory Beach
3 – Tap Me a Text
Race 6
8 – Second Bold– Came in from Northern California and ran 2nd in his first race after being crowded in the turn – He is improving in every race.
4 – Perfect Come Back – Won last race at Turf Paradise getting the highest last race speed – He has the trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-0-0).
1 – Disputed – Has performed well at Turf Paradise in the past and likes the distance – Comes in from Sunland Park after finishing in the money four out of the last five races – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-1-1).
5 – Kona Coast – Won last race at Turf Paradise, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
7 – Blame It On Kitty
2 – Assets Included
Race 7
3 – Departure – Won the last two races in a row, the last one at today’s distance -He has a high % winning Jockey and a bullet 4F workout on 15Mar Tup 4f ft :46 H 1/21.
1 – Black Ops – He needed the last race after taking a 2-month break – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (21 7-0-1).
8 – Swamp Souffle– Won three out of the last seven races – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) The trainer wins 34% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back.
7 – Baltimore Beecho – Won the two of the last four races – He likes Turf Paradise and the distance.
Alternate:
9 – Something Super
5 – Smarty River Pants
Race 8
8 – Octavius Prime – Comes in from Golden Gate Fields after going up in class to a $50,000 Allowance race only losing by 4-1/4 lengths – The trainer wins 30% of the time when he runs a horse the 2nd time after claiming a horse -The shorter distance -h Lasix added – Good 5F workout on 14Mar Tup 5f ft 1:00© H 5/11
2 – Blues Rapper – Finished 3rd in the last race five races, the last two on the turf – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Club Mesquite my promise- Returning to the turf should help and – Drops in class today.
1 – High Flyin Tiger – He switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey and the rail post is winning at 18% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Misawa
4 – Not Necessarily
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 98 Races, 70 won by speed, 38 w2w – PP: Play Fair
Early speed should be able to carry the tempo from start to finish as seven of the eight in here are chasers or closers and there isn’t a true 1s across the PPs frontrunner.
7 CRAZY GOOD -has by far the best EP/LP combo, trainer Jose Silva, jr 6/18 claim repeaters, 34/98 back-to-back
6 – KANDI SPUN – could be lone speed in a paceless field, cutting back in distance might reduce the advantage
8 – HEART RIVER – Tr: Priscilla Leon 4/9 after the claim and crazy ROIs 14.84 off the claim, 6 claim repeaters, 10.65 +2 classes
5 – CROOKHAVEN LASS – CCs Horse – should be close to the front all the way around the track, won her lone trip at TP with a nice late move at 4 ½ furlongs, the extra distance could help
Race 2 – 1 Mile Turf – 48 Races, 32 won by speed, 14 w2w -PP: Inside three bias and 8+> 4-7
A distance/surface where frontrunners have the advantage. Five of the eight in here have only won closing recently. There are 1 in the PP types, but one of them is cheap speed, and other that should tuck in behind the leaders and has the legs to run by them in the end.
3 – OPTIMISTIC VALOR – looks so obvious that it scares me, drop off the win, but not opened to be claimed
6 – N. K. ROCKET MAN – is the speed that’s been able to go w2w and should be better 2nd off the break
5 – T BONES TRICK – showed 2/4/LP improvement in last, top LP numbers and it isn’t close
4 – NOLONGERAHOBBY – showed major 2 and especially 4f improvement in last resume says 3rd after a layoff should be solid
Race 3 – 5 Furlongs – 48 Races, 33 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: Rail, 2/3, 8+ > 4-7
Low level, maiden claimers without much early speed from the experienced horses. The two first timers are unknown – pay attention to their early odds – one of the frontrunners could go w2w here.
2 – KIKI MY STAR – slight drop, TLRSP#, 3SP# Increases, 2f/LP improvement in her last
4 – ROCKIN IN – was decently bet in debut but got off to a bad start, dops in class, trainer Lymon Perren 11/38 MCL
6 – DR. ANGEL – finished behind KIKI MY STAR in her last, she too improved 2f/LP improvement, drops here
5 – HIGH KELLY BABE – looks like the better of the two first time starters and doesn’t have much to beat
Race 4 – 1 Mile – 136 Races, 86 won by speed, 23 w2w – PP: all play mostly fair
A little bit of everything in here, as many as five could try to take the lead early. Two have only won on the lead with three that can pressure the frontrunners and bring it home at the end. There are three closers with a fourth that could join.
2 – OFF THE BOOKS – 1st of the claim for Tr; Justin Evans – claim repeater 34/100 – tie top LP
5 – BACK ALLEY CAT – tie TLRSP drops in class, distance 5/1-0-3 – other to tie top LP
8 – BREWERY GULCH – has the top EP/LP combo by a wide margin, 1st route so he should be on the front end
6 – WARRIORS HERO – tough call over #6, returns to dirt, fast track 7/2-1-4, TP dirt 2/1-1-0
4 – ADD ON – is the lone speed horse that can sit off the lead and still win
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 73 Races, 62 won by speed, 31 w2w – PP: Play fair
Three first time starters versus six with some experience. Of the those that have raced, four want the lead. If any of the first timers are hot out of the gate, it could be a fast early pace. Look for the winner to either be the speed of the speed of rally by at the end.
6 – EYES FOR GOLD – should be able to sit right off the lead and has the best LP#s, well bet in debut and has a decent work since.
9 – MACLEAN’S BELLA – has been well bet in last two, showed 2/4f pace improvement in her last, has some EP and gets a weight break
4 – CURLIN BLESSING – improved nicely in 2nd career start, has a fast work since further improvement would likely be enough
3 – TAP ME A TEXT – looks like the best of the 1st timers and there isn’t much to beat in here
Race 6 – 136 Races, 86 won by speed, 23 w2w – PP: all play mostly fair
There are two frontrunners with 1s across PPs in their wins. The remaining six prefer to come home from off the pace, two of the six can pressure the leaders, but four have only won from way back. If they don’t burn each other, one of the two leaders should be able to win.
5 – KONA COAST – is one of the frontrunners and improved his 2/4/LP#s in his last, running 1 mile 2 seconds faster in his last than the previous 1 mile start.
4 – PERFECT COME BACK – 4SP# increases with TLRSP# and is one of the closers that can hug the pace and run by late.
8 – SECOND BOLD – is the other frontrunner and should be better in his second start after coming in from Golden Gate fields, just missed last out
7 – BLAME IT ON KITTY – is another closer that ties for the top LP# with #4, just needs to get off to a little better start
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 98 Races, 70 won by speed, 38 w2w – PP: Play Fair
It’s a distance that is usually won by the early leaders, but there isn’t a clear frontrunner with 1s across the PPs. Six of the nine in here are closers with three that usually chase and then close. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one go wire to wire.
3 – DEPARTURE – has won two in a row and has a bullet work since his last win and is two for two at TP.
1 – BLACK OPS – tied for the TLRSP# and should be better in his second start after a layoff. He ran better 2/4/LP#s in his last.
8 – SWAMP SOUFFLE – the other to TLRSP#, trainer Jose Silva, Jr. follows a win 34/98, better across the board in his last.
7 – BALTIMORE BEECHO – has one of the best, EP/LP combos and has 8 HQ races in his last 10 starts
Raec 8 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 37 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: 1-7 play fair, big penalty 8+
This race lacks early pace too with one frontrunner and two, maybe three that usually chase the leaders. The rest are usually well off the early pace.
3 – MISAWA – drops in class and has been able to get the lead vs softer company, like here
8 – OCTAVIUS PRIME – is the one with speed, comes in from GG – track drop – 1st lasix
6 – CLUB MESQUITE – another that drops in class and can stay with the leaders at this level, LP improvement in his last
7 – CHARMING VINTAGE – TLRSP# w2w in last, could be even better in 3rd off the bench, stepping up in class
