Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: LA Downs
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Hotfoot – He likes Turf Paradise and does well at today’s distance – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-1).
4 – Wake Up Call – Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has finished in the money 66% of the time at Turf Paradise and won 40% of the races at today’s distance.
6 – Captain Scotty
3 – All American Hero
Race 2
1 – Brazen Now – The trainer wins 27% of the time when he brings a beaten favorite back to race again – The shorter distance may help, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-1-1).
2 – Wind River – Won his last race at Turf Paradise at today’s distance.
3 – Driskill – Won his last race at Turf Paradise earning the highest last race speed rating – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-0-1).
5 – La Caprichosa – If he gets a good start and has little trouble during the race he may do well.
Alternate:
4 – Jokerin
Race 3
7 – Vintage Kitten – Finished in either first or second in the last five races, running 2nd in his last race and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Moonlite Graham – Has finished in the money nine out of the last ten races, winning two – The rail post is winning at 18% clip and The trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-2-0).
2 – Heir – Finished 3rd in his last race – He can either got to the front to lead the race to the finish or come from off the pace – He likes the track and the turf.
4 – Launch Pad – He ran 4th beaten only 2- lengths in last start after coming 5-wide into the stretch – He has a high % winning trainer, a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-0-2) and a bullet 4F workout on 22Mar Tup 4f ft :46.2 H 1/17.
Alternate:
6 – Make Me Blush
3 – Ronamo
Race 4
7 – Curling Secret – Came in from Southern California and ran 2nd after being bumped at the start in his first race at Turf Paradise, received the highest last race speed rating, and drops in class today- The trainer wins 55% of the time when he drops a horse after claiming the horse – His best dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (16 7-2-2).
6 – Pretty Loud – Had trouble in his last two races and if he has a clean trip may be more successful in this race – He has a high % winning trainer, drops in class today and the trainer wins 24% of the time when he brings a beaten favorite back to race.
5 – Hasta La Vista – He drops in class today and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-0-1).
8 – Dareabigdream – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race and drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Mr Love Muffin
1 – Any Given Nite
Race 5
3 – Dazzling Mist – She finished 3rd after trouble at the start in her last race – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-0-1).
6 – Big Blue Note – She won her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Smooth Rithms – Ran 2nd vs similar in her last race losing by only a head and has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 23% of the time when he brings a beaten favorite back to race – Her Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (15 6-2-0) – The only negative is that she has not won in over two years.
Alternate:
8 – Barbarius
4 – Adrienne’s Progeny
Race 6
3 – Sharmel – Won her last race at Turf Paradise and at today’s distance, she only needs to repeat that performance and she has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
5 – Starlight Twist – She has performed well at Turf Paradise and likes the distance – She has the highest last race speed rating and can improve while returning to dirt.
8 – Lila’s Lucky Lady – Switches to a high % winning jockey and may improve while returning to Dirt.
4 – Mongolian Empire – Ran 2nd in last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Iknowyourface
6 – Bonita Rapids
Race 7
8 – Roses for Suzzett – Came in from Southern California and ran 2nd in her first race receiving the highest last race speed rating,
2 – Whistling Home – Won her debut race at Turf Paradise at 5-1/2 furlongs and stretches out to 6-furlongs which appears to be within her capabilities.
3 – Addydidit – Won last race at Turf Paradise at 6-1/2 furlongs leading all the way and now cuts back a ½ furlong for this race. She has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the time when he is bringing the winner off their Maiden win back to race – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (15 6-2-0).
7 – Missczech – Ran 4th in last race after breaking slow and coming wide into the stretch – Drops in class today and may improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
5 – I Am Yours
1 – Onefineday
Race 8
5 – O Shugah Mint – Finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race getting the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today – The trainer wins 33% of the time when he drops a horse down 2+ classes – Blinkers are added today.
4 – Rocksie Hartbraker – Ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today – Her early speed running style helps her chances and the shorter distance should help.
9 – Miss Rebekah – Drops in class today – May improve at the shorter distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-0-1).
Alternate:
6 – Lil’ Miss Mischief
2 – Misty Matt
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 Furlongs – 49 races, 34 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 & 8+ >4-7
The early pace could be hot as three of six are frontrunners that go 1s or bust in the PPs. Another has the ability to lead or park right behind the pace. The remaining pair are closers. Speed of the speed should have the edge.
2 – HOTFOOT – usually gets off to a quick start – important in sprints – should be near the front with the best LP#s
3 – ALL AMERICAN HERO – is making his first start off the claim for trainer Matt Williams – 19% angle vs 7% overall, better numbers and fractions across the board in his last
4 – WAKE UP CALL
6 – CAPTAIN SCOTTY
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – 136 races – 105 won by speed, 50 w2w -PP: Ever so slight edge 4-7
A five-horse field and for each their only wins came on the lead. That should equal speed of the speed.
1 – BRAZEN NOW – speed of speed with the most late punch, should be the right combo
3 – DRISKILL – if times matter, has the fastest winning 6f time
2 – WIND RIVER – has the second fastest 6f time, winner MCL 20- lowest level of the top 3
4 – JOKERIN – could threaten is he can reach back to his second start – but has struggled at more than 4 ½ furlongs
Race 3 – 1 Mile Turf – 51 Races, 34 won by speed – PP: Strong inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
There are three in here that can take the lead or play co-pilot, another that can pressure the front or close, and three that close only.
4 – LAUNCH PAD – really like that 4f work of 46.2 – it’s faster than any of his real race times and likely a sign we’ll get his best
1 – MOONLITE GRAHAM – has the top EP#s in the field, usually breaks sharp and should be on the lead, speed of the speed
7 – VINTAGE KITTEN – likely better in his second off the bench but loves to hang late on TP grass, 8/1-6-1
6 – MAKE ME BLUSH – ran the TLRSP# back in early September – only wins – 2 in 7 races came on debut and only other start following a layoff
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs – 136 races – 105 won by speed, 50 w2w -PP: Ever so slight edge 4-7
What do you make of this race? Most of these haven’t been close to winning in almost all of their races. One has tried for the lead but looks more like a pressure horse than a tip of the spear type. He’s joined by two other chasers and five “closers” – more like just way back all of the time – and a 1st time starter.
7 – CURLING SECRET – maybe has an insurmountable EP advantage vs these? Small Drop off claim 55% winner for trainer Justin Evans – that’s smoking – probably going off at 4/5, maybe lower.
2 – IMAROYALFLUSH – showed better across the board in his last, has the top LP# in the field and making the 2nd biggest drop from MOC 30k
1 – ANY GIVEN NITE – 1st time starter and really doesn’t have much to beat.
8 – DAREABIGDREAM – was much better in the second half of his last race versus the previous outing, decent works since says figures to move forward off his last.
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 79 Races, 67 won by speed, 34 w2w -PP: All play fair
Five of eight have only won or ran their best races on the lead. Of the remaining three, one likes to pressure the leader and the other two are closers.
6 – BIG BLUE NOTE – usually not a fan of horses coming off the MDN win, but it was 1st at Turf P and tied for TLRSP# and should be better in round 2 off the bench
5 – SMOOTH RITHMS – has the top EP#s and is the other to tie for the top speed#, last race was two seconds slower than the previous start but 2/4f pace #s were better.
8 – BARBARIUS – could be a live longshot, toss out last and the handful of races before would have been good enough to win this. A good work since pulling up in her last suggests she’ll return to form.
1 – QUEENS RANSOM – last race was better than it looks on paper with similar fractions despite adding a half furlong.
Race 6 – 1 Mile – 143 Races, 87 won by speed, 26 w2w -PP: Mostly fair with 4-7 best by a little
Frontrunners should have the edge here with one that’s only won on the lead. Two more usually ride shotgun but can take the wheel if the pace is slow. The other five prefer to stalk and or close.
4 – MONGOLIAN EMPIRE – was much better in her first start for trainer Sergio Alvare, expecting another step forward here
3 – SHARMEL – won her last and has the top EP/LP combo in the field, 1st off the claim, 0-11 for trainer Mark Esquibel – concerning
5 – STARLIGHT TWIST – ITM 6/2-2-1 at TP and 13/2-4-3 at the distance, TLRSP# with top LP#s, just might not get the pace she needs
7 – WILLING TO BURN – is flipping from turf to dirt in her 2nd start for trainer Edward Kereluk, both have plus ROIs – 2nd Claim +1.05, Turf to Dirt +0.39
8 – LILA’S LUCKY LADY
1 – TWIRLY GIRL
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs – 136 races – 105 won by speed, 50 w2w -PP: Ever so slight edge 4-7
It could be fast early with five of the eight only winning from the lead, two more tend to pressure the leaders, and one that sits behind the pace and challenges late. Late pace should be the key here.
7 – MISSCZECH – is dropping from an OK performance in a 75k non-graded stakes, jky/trn combo of Harry Hernandez/Miguel Jimenez won 4/8 w/ +2.75 ROI
8 – ROSES FOR SUZZETT – just missed in her last and first at TP, 2nd dose of Lasix, winner 3/10 for trainer Jose Silva vs 14% overall win rate
2 – WHISTLING HOME – won her debut, decent works since, but not big on MDW winners without TLRSP#
1 – ONEFINEDAY – is likely to be the pacesetter and usually gets off to a good start, fist be tough to beat if she has the lead in the stretch
Race 8 – 5 Furlongs – 49 races, 34 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 & 8+ >4-7
Not a lot of early speed here with just two that like to get to the front. Three like to chase the leader(s), one that can chase, but has done better a little further back, three that close and two first time starters.
5 – O SHUGAH MINT – ran the TLRSP# and dropping in class, will likely sit off the pace with the best LP#s
9 – MISS REBEKAH – resume says she’ll be better in her second start after a layoff, dropping in class has been close at TP – 7/0-4-0 and 6/-0-3-0
4 – ROCKSIE HARTBRAKER – has the top EP#s and could control the race from start to finish, ran better fractions in her last, had a big lead but gave it up, shortens by a ½ furlong, which should help
2 – MISTY MATT – 1st time starter, nice work on March 11th followed by a maintenance work, not much else behind here to beat.
