Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
BONUS: Golden Hour Pick 4 at Santa Anita and Golden Gate
BONUS #2: Jared Bush’s Turf Paradise Picks
PARX Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Gypsy Janie – Finished 2nd vs similar in her last race – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-4-3).
7 – Checotah – Finished 3rd vs similar in the last race – The trainer wins 21% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race – Can improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Dreaming Diamonds – Ran 2nd in her last race – Has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Verrazano Vittoria –. Finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Alternate:
3 – Luscious Lola
Race 2
5 – Terpeye – Won his last race at PARX – received the highest last race speed rating -The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 5-0-0).
7 – Reiterate – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, the fifth 2nd in a row – Has a good workout on 01Mar Prx 3f ft :36ª B 2/5
8 – Majestic Blend – The trainer wins 23% of the time in the second race off a layoff, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-4-3).
1 – Hay Nineteen – Has finished 54% of the time in the money, winning 27% of the races during her career – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and the trainers’ entries win 19% of the time in claiming races.
Alternate:
2 – Forest Halo
4 – Moments to Saver
Race 3
3 – Ruffy – Won his last race at PARX at today’s distance, received the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-2-0).
9 – Prince Filip – Won his last race at PARX easily- The trainer wins 24% of the time in second race off a layoff.
1 – Northern Express – Finished 3rd in his last race – He likes the track and can manage the distance.
8 – Holdtheflight – Finished 3rd in last race at Aqueduct and now comes to try PARX Racing – Has a decent workout on 28Feb Prx 5f ft 1:01ª B 2/4.
Alternate:
5 – Battle of Berlin
Race 4
1 – Flimflam Man – Ran 2nd last race – He has the highest last race speed rating, highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – The trainer wins 33% of the time when going from a Sprint-Route-Sprint – The trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
7 – Rack Gin – Ran 2nd in his last race at PARX, the second time in a row.
8 – Cant Stop This Man– Ran 3rd twice in a row at PARX and at today’s distance – The trainer wins 28% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race.
9 – Kikkerland – Won his last race at PARX. Decent works.
Alternate:
5 – I Perfect Revenge
Race 5
1 – Lindros – Ran 5th after being bumped during his last race – He has a high % winning and the Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (7 5-0-1).
2 – The Great Gazoo – Ran 2nd vs similar in the last race – He has a high % winning Jockey and the highest last race speed rating.
7 – My Brother Neil – Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and the trainer/jockey in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
5 – Go Lime – Finished 3rd in his last race.
Alternate:
4- Myquist
Race 6
3 – Run Fast – Ran 2nd vs tougher in the last race, drops in class today and can handle the distance.
8 – Admiral Eastwood – Ran 2nd vs similar in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating. He likes to finish in the money winning occasionally.
4 – Judicial Mandate – May improve at the shorter distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-4-3).
5 – I Saw It All – Ran 6th after steading at the 5/16 pole. He has finished in the money 100% of the time at today’s distance.
Alternate:
1 – Loxodrome
6 – American Quality
Race 7
3 – Fillupcohensapiker – Finished in the money in the last three races, finishing second in last race. Likes the track and distance.
4 – Sugar Streak– Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today.
5 – Bella G – Won last race at PARX Racing getting the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 19% of the time when bringing back a winner of their last race – The trainer/jockey in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
6 – Penance – Ran 4th beaten 2-1/2 lengths after baring out early and going wide into the stretch. He has won 40% of the races he has competed in at PARX.
Alternate:
8 – Pecan Pattie
1 – Abhaile
Race 8
3 – Splicethemainbrace – Finished 2nd in his last race and got the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 33% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race.
9 – Backsideofthemoon – Came in from Aqueduct and finished 3rd in his last race – Should improve while returning to a route, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Bird King – Has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a bullet 4F workout on 28Feb Prx 4f ft :47 H 1/12.
7 – Brooklyn Strong – May improve with Lasix & Blinkers added. Decent works.
Alternate:
8 – Dreams Untold
Race 9
5 – Cinnabunny – Finished in the money seven out of the last eight races winning four of the races Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (7 5-0-1).
8 – Shero – Ran 2nd in her last race – The trainer wins 27% of the time Sprint-Route-Sprint – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-4-3).
4 – Jakarta – Ran 2nd vs tougher in the last race, returns to PARX where she has won the one race she competed in and drops in class today.
2 – Hey Mamaluke – Won last race at Aqueduct receiving the highest last race speed rating -Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
Race 10
11 – Hollywood Jet – Won four races in a row, a winning machine – Has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Uncle Ernie – Won the last race at PARX – Switches to high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington.
3 – Fortheluvofbourbon – Won his last race at PARX – Early speed running style helps chances.
8 – Mojovation – Has won two races in a row and now going for a hat trick – Has a decent workout on 27Feb Prx 4f ft :48.3 H 5/17.
Alternate:
4 – Our Philly Special
9 – Prince of Rain
Race 11
4 – Morissette – Won her last race Penn National and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Whyisshesoolucky – She has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance
8 – Thatta Boy Girl – The trainer wins 27% of the time in 3rd race after a layoff and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
9 – Janelle Dreams – Drops in class today – The trainer is winning at a 20% clip at this meet.
Alternate:
2 – Mad Mary
1 – West Horizon
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 25 Races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Slight Post and 8+ Bias
A lot of early speed in here, could set up nicely for a horse that’s right off the pace.
2 – DREAMING DIAMONDS – Only to take a small DROP 28-26, LRSP>PAR, only E/P horse in the field
5 – GYPSY JANIE – will likely press the pace but has the best LP# in the field
1 – VERRAZANO VITTORIA – is another that should be close to the front, gets the edge over #4 because of rail
3 – LUSCIOUS LOLA
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – 62 Races, 41 won by speed, 16 w2w – PP: rail just 1 win, all else plays fair
There are a lot of similar horses in here, most of which want to be near the front. The speed horses with better LP#s could be the way.
7 – REITERATE – has the top EP#s and top EP/LP combo, Top Pedigree
5 – TERPEYE – lone closer in the field with by far the best LP#s, hoping for a fast pace
1 – HAY NINETEEN – would be ranked higher, but how do you play against 1 for 62 rail?
8 – MAJESTIC BLEND – has 2nd best EP#s and second-best LP#s, BTN FAV last out and could be better in 2nd off the bench
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – Rail and 8+ penalty, all else is fair
For as many as 5, on the lead might be the only way to the winners’ circle. Again, late pace could be the key.
2 – BULLET BUTCH – strong improvement 2/4/LP#s in last – should sit right off the pace and pounce
3 – RUFFY – has the best combo EP/LP combo, 3rd off a layoff with TLRSP# – coming off maiden win
9 – PRINCE FILIP – took off almost a year and ran much better fractions in his last, MCL win and slightly worried about a bounce
7 – REX KWON DO
Race 4 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – Rail and 8+ penalty, all else is fair
There is early speed in here, but probably not too much. I would not be overly surprised to see a horse in the first three at the quarter pole take the checkered flag.
1 – FLIMFLAM MAN – not all that happy about the draw, 3SP# Increases w/ TLRSP# by a decent margin, cut back from 1m70yds should help
10 – SCORPION DYNASTY – only E/P horse in the field, track drop from AQ with Trevor McCarthy – one of two mounts on the day.
8 – CANT STOP THIS MAN – likely pilot or co-pilot, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, best LP#s of early speed horses, BTN FAV Tr: Daniel Velazquez 22/76 next out
9 – KIKKERLAND
Parx Race 5 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 60 Races, 42 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: small inside 3 and 8+ bonus
It’s hard to tell what these experienced maiden claimers running types are as none have won, and they’ve been all over the track.
2 – THE GREAT GAZOO – TLRSP#, QTA ran Feb 15, strong LP improvement in his last
7 – MY BROTHER NEIL – has the top LP#s by a wide margin and shouldn’t be too far from the front
1 – LINDROS – has the highest EP#s by a wide margin, can get to the front but can’t seem to hang on, but not a lot of other likely to give pressure
5 – GO LIME
Parx Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 25 Races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Slight Post and 8+ Bias
With the exception of #6 (E/P) , all the rest are early speed and pressure/closers types. The winner will likely be the speed with the best late punch or one of the three P/Cs.
4 – JUDICIAL MANDATE – should be speed of the speed with top EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
6 – AMERICAN QUALITY – 3rd after a layoff, didn’t like mud in last, only E/P in the field
8 – ADMIRAL EASTWOOD – has the best LP# by a decent margin, QTA ran Feb 23rd, J/T combo 5/5 ITM
3 – RUN FAST – probably chases all the way around the track, strong mid-pace improvement in last, turn numbers are important
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 60 Races, 42 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: small inside 3 and 8+ bonus
It’s a 13-horse field with 5 speed horses, 4 pressers, 2 that can press or take the lead and two closers. Early fractions will be the key.
9 – CHARITY STRIPE – Tie Top Pedigree, Top LP#s by a wide margin, should be better in 2nd off bench, nice improvement in 2/4f #s in last
6 – PENANCE – 3rd after a layoff, 3rd was best in last 3-race cycle, Parx 22/9-1-4, Dist 19/6-0-2
4 – SUGAR STREAK – last race much better than it looks with 2/4f strong improvement, Tie Top Pedigree
5 – BELLA G – won last with TLRSP#, 3rd off a break, 3rd was the best in last 3-race cycle
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 60 Races, 42 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: small inside 3 and 8+ bonus
There isn’t a lot of early speed here, strong chance winner is close to the front all the way around the track.
8 – DREAMS UNTOLD – Top EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3rd after a layoff, 2 good works since,
3 – SPLICETHEMAINBRACE – tie TLRSP#, BTN FAV, Tr; Rober Reid Jr rebounds 22/64, should be near the pace with some of the best LP#s too.
9 – BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON – Trever’s other ride, extra distance should help, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions with some of the better LP#s too
2 – BIRD KING – first off the bench with a bullet and go, Tie Top Pedigree, Top LP#s
Race 9 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 23 Races, 15 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 & 8 >4-7
All but 1 horse in this field of 8 (because of scratches) could be forwardly placed, but the pace might not be too hot as there are just 2 traditional pacesetters.
4 – JAKARTA – has the best LP#s by a wide margin over the other E-speed types, DROP 250-100
5 – CINNABUNNY – PARX 7/4-1-1, 30f works since Jan 14th, has run OK off the bench,
2 – HEY MAMALUKE – only with LRSP>PAR, TOP EP#s, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, PARX 17/7-4-0
8 – SHERO – tough call over #3, but has slightly better EP and LP#s, ITM PARX 15/6-3-3
3 – GLORY DIA
Race 10 – 6 Furlongs – 62 Races, 41 won by speed, 16 w2w – PP: rail just 1 win, all else plays fair
With stretches, 4 of 9 are early speed types, could set a fast pace, late pace and speed could be key.
11 – HOLLYWOOD JET – has the top EP#s by a wide margin, should be better in second off bench, LRSP>PAR
3 – FORTHELUVOFBOURBON – only E/P horse in the field, can win from the front and right off the pace, strong LP improvement in last, 4 SP# increases
5 – UNCLE ERNIE – has 6 High Quality starts in 6 career races, first since Dec 20, won only other 2 fresh starts by at least 7 ¾ lengths – 17f works since Jan 14
8 – MOJOVATION – Top Pedigree, much better fractions in his last, two rides with j Jaime Rodriguez, won both by 3
Race 11 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 23 Races, 15 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 & 8 >4-7
These horses have been all over the place, whoever gets the lead probably won’t have to run too fast.
8 – THATTA BOY GIRL – has the TOP EP#s by a decent margin, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3SP# Increases
4 – MORISSETTE – Top LP#s by a decent margin with nice LP Improvement in last
12 – JUST SMOK’N – has the 2nd best EP#s and then there is a drop off, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
6 – WHYISSHESOOLUCKY – TLRSP#, QTA ran Feb 22, 3SP# Increases, 3rd off a layoff
