Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Mountaineer Park Full Card Picks
Terry’s Presque Isle Downs Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fanduel
Mountaineer Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
9 – Loyalty Spirit – He has finished in the money in the last six races at Mountaineer Park, has a high % winning jockey trainer who wins 20% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Colonel Mike – He has won three out of the last four starts and has a trainer/jockey combo who has in the last 14 days has this record (13 6-1-1).
4 – Perfetto – He has done well in turf races in the past and the trainer wins 21% of races in Turf starts – May improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Positive Phil – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (18 6-4-3).
Alternate:
10 – Silent Tiger
7 – Eric the Salesman
Race 2
7 – Walkin Princess – She has not raced for more than 8 months but loves the turf finishing in the money in eighteen out of twenty-one starts, winning eleven.
5 – Mayan Queen – She has won three out of eight starts on the turf and finished 3rd in last race on the turf.
9 – Belle Brezing – She won her last race at Mountaineer Park receiving the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer/jockey combo who has in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1).
1 – Fed Up Fired Up – she has won almost 25% of her races on the turf and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (18 6-4-3).
Alternate:
6 – Over to You
Race 3
9 – Ola Que Tal – He won his last race at Mountaineer Park receiving the highest last race speed rating and has a Trainer/Jockey combo who has in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-4-3).
8 – Bold Prophet – He likes the turf finishing in the money in eight out of nine starts and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Squared Straight – He ran 2nd in his last two races and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-2-4).
5 – Chatterman – He has a trainer who wins 21% of the races in turf starts.
Alternate:
2 – Briar Jumper
3 – Fevola
Race 4
3 – Quidproquo Joeblow – She comes in from Golden Gate Fields and has the highest last race speed rating – She has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when going from a Maiden Claiming to a Maiden and a trainer/jockey combo who has in the last 14 days has this record (13 6-1-1).
6 – Pretty Loud – She has a high % trainer, should improve while returning to dirt and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (18 6-4-3).
5 – Paul Drake – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race at Mountaineer Park.
2 – Songwriter – She switches to a high % jockey, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 28% of the races when going from Turf to Dirt.
Alternate:
4 – Off to the Races
1 – Klimt Ride
Race 5
6 – Kolsch – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Shaena Bue – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a trainer/jockey combo who has in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-2-1).
3 – Roaring Ocean – He ran 2nd in his last race on the turf at Pimlico and should improve in 2nd start since layoff.
1 – Lend America – He finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, the rail post is winning at 25% clip, and he drops in class today.
Alternate:
5 – Bahamian Beat
7 – Billy Not William
Race 6
4 – S S Energy – She 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Lil Perfect – She has finished 3rd in her last race.
5 – Worth a Peek –She drops in class today and the trainer wins 23% of races in a horse’s 2nd career race.
1 – The Good Flower – She has a high % winning trainer, and the rail post is winning at 29% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Kom Here Girl
2 – Annie’s Angel
Race 7
5 – Hurry Up Chic Chic – She is a first-time starter; her Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (11 4-3-2).
2 – Wedding Chapel – She ran 2nd in last race has, earned the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among todays and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-2-4).
7 – Wedding Bourbon – She comes in from Hawthorne to try Mountaineer Park and drops in class today.
1 – Pangea – The rail post is winning at 25% clip and the trainer wins 100% of races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
4 – She’s So Southern
6 – Mother’s Pride
Race 8
3 – Cabo Headache – He won his last race at Mountaineer Park and received the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Heydon’s Case – He won his last race at Mountaineer Park, and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Holiday Bonus –He ran 2nd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and his jockey in last 7 days has this record (18 6-4-3).
9 – Bellows– He likes the distance and can improve in 2nd start since layoff.
Alternate:
2 – Carrier Pigeon
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 7 races, 1 w2w – rest off the pace, only 2/3 less than fair
10 – SILENT TIGER – has a lot of last burst, a bullet work on Jan 5, TLRSP#
9 – LOYALTY SPIRIT – BTN Fav, tr Jay Bernardini rebounds at 21%, LP# picked up and should be better in 2nd off the start
1 – COLONEL MIKE – is a neck away from winning last 4, tr/jy combo Fausto Da Silva & Juan Silva win at 40%
2 – POSITIVE PHIL – 3sp# increases, dropping in class, should be close to the front all the way around the track, some regression in his last
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 7 races, 1 w2w – rest off the pace, only 2/3 less than fair
9 – BELLE BREZING – is one for one at MTR at Distance/Surface with TLRSP#, all good work was on turf
5 – MAYAN QUEEN – is another with MTR success, 3/2-0-1, just missed in last with better #s ATB and should continue to be better in 3rd off the sidelines
7 – WALKIN PRINCESS – been off since Oct, won the last time she had a similar break, distance 11/6-3-1
3 – AFFICIONADO – track dropper from TB and GP, if her speed numbers bump, could make easy work of these
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 7 races, 1 w2w – rest off the pace, only 2/3 less than fair
9 – OLA QUE TAL – is 1 for 1 on turf at MTN/Dis/Surface – strong on an off track too, maybe is a turf horse
8 – BOLD PROPHET – likes turf, 9/1-5-2, improved 4f #s in last, has the top Turf Pedigree for distance/turf
1 – SQUARED STRAIGHT – 2nd off the claim, tr Juan Silva hits at 26%, dude if killing it at MTR 44/18-9-7
4 – SALT MINE – missed by ¾ length in last and first on turf in a while, better #s in first ½ mile, of the few running on MTR grass, has the best numbers
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 54 races, 46 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: strong rail, 2/3 better than 4-7
2 – SONGWRITER – track drop from GP, tr Caio Caramori hits at 28% going turf to dirt
3 – QUIDPROQUO JOEBLOW – TLRSP#, EP improvement in last, tr Juan Silva must have liked what he saw, moving from MCL to MSW – winner 4/12
4 – OFF TO THE RACES – has the top EP#s, many times at MTN, get to the lead, get the W, as the 54% w2w rate proves
6 – PRETTY LOUD – hard call over #5, third start after a layoff, usually coming hard at the end
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 54 races, 46 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: strong rail, 2/3 better than 4-7
5 – BAHAMIAN BEAT – has the top EP#s by a wide margin, likely to be better in 2nd off the bench
6 – KOLSCH – TLRSP# and drops in class, ran slightly faster in has last start in 6f slop vs 6f fast
1 – LEND AMERICA – drops in class after putting up better fractions in last at Thistle, gets the 25% winning rail
2 – SHAENA BUE – definitely not a fan of horse coming off MCL 4k win, but 6f fractions faster than the rest and has EP, necessary at the distance and MNTR 19/1-0-9
Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 35 races, 27 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: strong rail, 2-7 mostly fair, 8+ a bonus, but not as strong as rail
5 – WORTH A PEEK – clipped heels in debut, but still managed to collect the top EP#s, Eddie C, bullet work two back and maintenance since
4 – S S ENERGY – TLRSP#, should be better in 3rd off the bench, just missed in last but fractions were a little slower
2 – ANNIE’S ANGEL – 1st time starter and not much to beat aside top 2, bullet work 3 back would be fast enough to put her close to the lead from the break
6 – LIL PERFECT – two races at MNR – 2/0-0-2,
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs, 54 races, 46 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: strong rail, 2/3 better than 4-7
7 – WEDDING BOURBON – has similar EP# as #2, comes in from Hawthorne, ran better fractions in career race #2 and should be better in race 2 after a long layoff
5 – HURRY UP CHIC CHIC – 1st time stater for Ky Derby trainer Eric Reed, strong works getting ready
2 – WEDDING CHAPEL – comes in from Turf Paradise, has TOP EP#s, not sure how they carry to MNTR, tr/jockey combo of Eddie Jurado and Juan Silva w 33%, ITM 8/9 ROI +1.29
4 – SHE’S SO SOUTHERN – only has debut race, all the others remaining had a lot of chances to get the maiden win, not sure what the upside is here whereas we know what the others can do
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 1 race won off the pace from posts 4-7
3 – CABO HEADACHE – won last going away by 4 in first race since Dec, resume says he’ll be better in R2 and last was TLRSP
1 – HEYDON’S CASE – is another with a strong win following a long break, MTNR 6/1-2-1
7 – HOLIDAY BONUS – improved from race to race in first two at MTNR and walked up the performance ladder, holding speed longer
5 – BEING THERE –has the best MTNR #s in the group
