Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Golden Gate Fields
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Ageless Endeavor – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
7 – Two Color Map – He was beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs tougher in last start, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-0-0).
4 – The Mase – He has early speed, taken a small break and has been working out to return and may go to the front and go all the way.
1 – Bar On the Beach – The rail post is winning at a 21% clip and the trainer wins 18% of the races with a horses in the 2nd start with trainer Louis Linder, Jr.
Alternate:
3 – Peace Crusader
6 – Sweet Pari
Race 2
7 – Jarlian – He drops in class today and should improve while returning to a sprint.
6 – Drone Swarm – He won his last race and has a trainer who wins 23% of the races with a horse going for their second claiming race win.
3 – Mississippi – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a high % jockey and has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
1 – High Velocity – He drops in class today and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
9 – Indirectly
Race 3
2 – Callmethebreeze – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
4 – Margin of Air – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-1-2).
7 – Lease – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-0-0) and a good 4F workout (Aug-29).
6 – Mr. Einstein – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-3).
Alternate:
5 – Imagine This
Race 4
11 – One Wild Woman – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (19 6-0-1).
10 – Ice Love – She won her last race at PARX Racing, her early speed running style helps her chances and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (9 4-2-1).
5 – Classy Miss – She ran 2nd in her last race, and she has a good 4F workout (Aug-24).
4 – My First Love – She drops down in class and has a trainer who wins 66% of the races when moving a horse down 2+ classes and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Bohemia Babe
1 – Rose Legacy
Race 5
2 – Grazely – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races.
3 – Sunsanddrinkinhand – He drops down in class and has a trainer who wins 28% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – Ridden by Frankie Pennington.
4 – Mine Not Mine – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he may improve with blinkers added today.
8 – D Black Mamba – He finished 3rd in last race.
Alternate:
6 – Shanghai Candy
7 – Dangnabbit
Race 6
9 – Runningforhome – He drops in class today and his trainer wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
10 – Dubrovsky – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – El Hermano – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, switches to a high% trainer who wins 33% of the races in the 1st after claiming a horse.
1 – Breithorn – He drops in class today; his trainer wins 22% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
3 – Drena’s Bullet
7 – Monday’s With Mike
Race 7
9 – Lord Uhtred – He ran 2nd in his only start, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (14 5-2-1).
1 – Evey’s Candy – He was well bet in his debut and finished 3rd vs similar.
6 – All Eyes On You – He ran 2nd in his last race.
4 – Checkitup – He first time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Takemetothemoon
2 – Veeson
Race 8
5 – Fore Harp – He finished 3rd in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-0-0).
1 – Hide the Ransom – He won his last race at Monmouth Park, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (14 5-2-1) and a good 4F workout on Aug-24.
6 – O’Brien– He is back to the turf where he has finished in the money 100% of the time.
9 – Where You Was– He finished 3rd (on AW) in last race, returning to Turf and a shorter distance may help and he switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Smokey White
Race 9
8 – Gushing Oil – He won his last race at Delaware Park, has the highest last race speed rating, a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (14 5-2-1) and a good 4F workout on Aug-2.
1 – Mountain Tree – He won his last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer.
2 – Knockout Kick– He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
4 – Defibrillator –He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (9 4-2-1).
Alternate:
5 – The Big Bluff
Race 10
4 – Philadelphia Belle – She won her last race at Delaware Park and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (14 5-2-1).
2 – Dr B – She ran 2nd in her last race at Saratoga, has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-1) and a good 4F workout on Aug-30.
6 – Liam’s Light – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-3) and a bullet 5F workout on Aug-27.
1 – Stand Up Comic – She finished 3rd in last race, the rail post is winning at 21% clip and may improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
3 – Excitable Lady
Race 11
8 – In Equality – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a trainer who wins 21% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
3 – The Angry Man – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race at PRAX Racing, the third 2nd in a row.
9 – Tactical Plan – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-0-0).
4 – My Man Elvis – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-3).
Alternate:
13 – Flight Risk
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 138 races, 83 won by speed, 43 w2w – PP: small rail bonus, all else fair
7 – TWO COLOR MAP – should be close to the pace and has nearly a ++ LP edge, probably the biggest dropper in the field
5 – AGELESS ENDEAVOR – Denzel horse, 6/0-3-1 at Park, gets a weight break, missed as the favorite in last, tr John Servis rebounds at 33%
4 – THE MASE – was better ATB in last, drops in class, 3 decent works since his last
6 – SWEET PARI – last race was better than it looks on paper, better fractions at 7f vs 5 1/2f
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 155 races, 115 won by speed, 53 w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ bias, 4-7 discount
1 – HIGH VELOCITY – has a +2/4f advantage, #2 EP/LP combo, rides the 18% winning rail, drops in class
6 – DRONE SWARM – won last and stays in claiming ranks, 24% angle for trainer Louis Linder, jr21f works since last race
2 – TWO PRINCES – 3 SP# increases in a row, won last with a big effort, my experience good races are followed by another, has most LP
5 – ADMIRAL EASTWOOD – tough call over the 8, but he has beaten him 3 for 3 in last 10 starts
8 – FIRST NAVY ADMIRAL
Race 3 – 1 Race, won by speed, not w2w, post 4-7, but 1 data point is meaningless
2 – CALLMETHEBREEZE – jy/tr combo of Abner Adorno and Juan Guerrero winner 5/8 – 100% ITM, $4.45+ ROI – may not win, but looks like a good combo to wheel around
7 – LEASE – ran better times at 1 1/16 miles turf than 1m70y dirt, strong work since and drops 5lbs today
4 – MARGIN OF AIR – was better early last out in first race for tr Marya Montoya, tr wins 18% second time out with a horse
6 – MR. EINSTEIN
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 214 Races, 154 won by speed, 54 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 4-7, penalty, 8+ par
4 – MY FIRST LOVE – trainer Tyler Servis winner 4/6 down multiple classes, $5.75 ROU
5 – CLASSY MISS – missed by a neck as the $0.40 favorite after shipping in from CD, 1st off the claim for tr Michael Pino and better in 2nd off the bench
11 – ONE WILD WOMAN – won 2 in a row, one for 1 at the distance, slightly better pace numbers in last
3 – SEA PINES – left arrow horse, should be closer to the pace and has the top EP/LP combo, PARX 6/0-2-
Race 5 – 1 1/8 Miles, 7 races, 4 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: none from rail, 2-7 fair, 8+ small bonus
7 – DANGNABBIT – +++ EP advantage, lone speed – everybody is looking for it – should control pace
3 – SUNSANDDRINKINHAND – has a + LP edge, lone win in PARX debut, 1-1 at Parx, down multiple classes for tr Kelly Breen 29% angle, better fractions in first half mile of last
4 – MINE NOT MINE – Jamie Ness and Ruben Silvera, 27% winning combo, 3rd off a layoff
8 – D BLACK MAMBA – Parx 5/1-2-2, fast track 7/1-3-1
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs, 155 races, 115 won by speed, 53 w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ bias, 4-7 discount
2 – EL HERMANO – 1st off the claim for tr Mario Dominguez winner 22/66 – 33% big numbers for 19% trainer
9 – RUNNINGFORHOME – drops in class, Parx 18/3-3-2, much faster fractions last out, 1/1 at distance
1 – BREITHORN – downs multiple classes, 23% angle for trainer Miguel Penaloza – alpha angle for 14% trainer, Parx 10/3-2-1, rides 18% winning rail
8 – AHSAD – Left Arrow horse, top EP/LP combo, tough call over 6/8
6 – ARRIVEDERCI
4 – BIG BAD BUD
Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 96 races, 73 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: outside in bias
9 – LORD UHTRED – EP#s from debut should put him on pace, Ness and Silvera again
2 – VEESON – going to go all 1st timers, tr Ernesto Padilla-Preciado winner 6/14 with 1st timers, crazy good
4 – CHECKITUP – $165k horse, maybe cost more than the rest combined, decent works
3 – TAKEMETOTHEMOON – tr Robert Reid, jr hits at 24% with 2 yos and 22% with 1st timers, like Aug 20 work 2/22 at 5f at Parx
Race 8 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 1 race, won w2w from 4-7
1 – HIDE THE RANSOM – Left arrow, Silvera/Ness, track dropper, faster fractions last out, off track and turf record say he should do well on surface switch from dirt
6 – O’BRIEN – toss last, Parx turf 2/1-1-0, could improve greatly in R2 off the bench
9 – WHERE YOU WAS – dropping in class, turf 16/3-0-6, will be closing late with LP2
5 – FORE HARP -should be pacesetter, drops in class after trying turf for the 2 times – catching softer field helps
Race 9 – 7 Furlongs, 155 races, 115 won by speed, 53 w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ bias, 4-7 discount
8 – GUSHING OIL – Conditions book race, dropping off a win for Ness but not for sale, 29%, TLRSP# and bullet work since
2 – KNOCKOUT KICK – has +2f edge, ++4f edge, drops multiple classes, tr Kathleen Demasi 30% angle for 19% trainer
5 – THE BIG BLUFF – top combo EP/LP, 4sp# increases, much better #s in first ½ mile of last race
10 – LONGTAIL – won last by 5 ¾ lengths, big races are usually followed by another, not the biggest fan of Penn to Parx angle, but Parx 14/2-3-1
Race 10 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 138 races, 83 won by speed, 43 w2w – PP: small rail bonus, all else fair
2 – DR B – should be close to the pace and has a +LP edge, Parx 6/3-0-2
4 – PHILADELPHIA BELLE – Left Arrow horse, Ness/Silvera for the nth time, Parx 12/5-0-1, distance 3/2-0-0
6 – LIAM’S LIGHT –Paco Lopez rides, fast 5/3-1-1, way faster fractions early in last, faded, improves in r2 off the bench
3 – EXCITABLE LADY – lone closer in a race that could get really fast up front, closes for a piece of gimmicks
Race 11 – 1 Mile, 92 races, 67 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: rail discount, 2-7 fair, 8+ big penalty
8 – IN EQUALITY – missed by a neck in his last, gets a 7lb weight break compared to last, 3rd off the bench better ATB in last
13 – FLIGHT RISK – should be a part of the EP, better 6f and final time at 1m70y compared to previous start a at the same distance
7 – SOCIAL GROUP – Left arrow horse, has a +EP edge, almost ++at 4f, all or nothing at the distance 7/2-0-0
9 – TACTICAL PLAN – down in class, made a decent mid move in last, some of the most consistent LP
Parx Racing Pace Worksheet
